swimmatte Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 At least it's close. I'm not letting this run discourage me too much. Still brought a hint of precip to DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Ggem jma all supressed too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I think gfs is going to be south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The GFS has held serve, just not as amped. The path of the surface low is almost identical to the 0z run. The 500 vort is still in a pretty good location. GFS vs Euro. Which to have faith in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It went south a bit but not enough to miss us but enough to make me nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If euro does not around by this time tomorrow..I'm bailing. I'll bail even earlier if any of the Gfs runs look like euro today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Nogaps and Cmc monsters for pd3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I have seen verification reports posted here comparing the models and the Euro was usually at the top. Not all the time but fairly consistent. But the GFS was usually pretty darn close. Yet the general thinking on the board is that if the Euro says no, then the hell with what any of the other models say. So, why do we even follow any model beside the Euro? It could be the world vs the Euro. And which do we choose? The Euro. I guess it's a lot like the NAM. We all know that passed 36 to 48 hours it is a pretty weak model, yet we are consistently taking it to 84 and then extrapolating beyond that. Go figure. We're all sick. I'm hugging the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Nam is fun to look at but nobody takes it seriously past 24 hours. It's usually the last model to come around and then it overcompensates. How can we go against the euro? To me there is no storm right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Cmc has pd3 but its early next week after pd3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 00z Gfs ensembles looked really good...some members had mecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 00z Gfs ensembles looked really good...some members had mecs Yes. And the best part was only one member looked like it was truly suppressed. But, fwiw, it is the GFS. Punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I agree that the 6z GFS held serve from yesterday's runs. I still don't like the L placement off Hatteras because it goes out to sea from there - I would much rather it hug the coast a little more. But it is holding. The 6z NAM is what makes things interesting this morning - taking the L further west with what looks like a mostly rain event. I know, it's the NAM. But now it puts the GFS between the NAM (west) and EURO (east). Also, the EURO has been terrible this season. The GFS has been right with most of the tracks this season - just a little overamped. Given all that, I am sticking with my widespread 2-4 inches for the DC area, though it looks to start later in the day which favors closer to 3-4 inches. The PD storm looks like a punt right now - but something tells me it will be back in the models after Monday's storm passes. I can't fathom the trough digging from Canada to FL that quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It would have been nice for the Euro to come on board, because for the last two years, whenever either the Euro or GFS is holding out for no snow, that one ends up being right with regard to DC/Balt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It seems the NAM is on its own vs the other major models. The 06Z run followed through with what the 00Z hinted at with a primary running to our north and west with the suggestion of a secondary forming off the MD/VA coast. And we know how that goes with hoping that the precip arrives before the primary warms the BL and then hoping the secondary takes over quick enough to change the rain back to snow, that is if we aren't being dry slotted to begin with. Good thing it is the NAM at 84 and goes against the globals that argue we need to be more worried about a southern slider as opposed to a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The 6z members look good. There are timing differences, so you can't see it all on one panel, but all but one give the region a pretty decent event. Still, I know I have my doubts. I guess it's just called being gun shy. If this one doesn't work, I'm ready for the Roberto Duran "no mas" tactic from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The 6z members look good. There are timing differences, so you can't see it all on one panel, but all but one give the region a pretty decent event. Still, I know I have my doubts. I guess it's just called being gun shy. If this one doesn't work, I'm ready for the Roberto Duran "no mas" tactic from here on out. You're right...if we end up punting VD and PD3 it'll be time to start looking at mulch and grass seed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The 6z members look good. There are timing differences, so you can't see it all on one panel, but all but one give the region a pretty decent event. Still, I know I have my doubts. I guess it's just called being gun shy. If this one doesn't work, I'm ready for the Roberto Duran "no mas" tactic from here on out. Call me gun shy as well but what should be concerning is the fact that the Euro op as well as its ensembles still show a suppressed system out to sea. Considering the Euro is pretty much within it's wheel house if we don't start seeing a shift in the next run or two we might want to start considering the fact that we may once again miss out with VA cashing in. I also have to wonder with the NAM being way over amped if the other American model, the GFS, may be as well but not to such extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I read the thread before looking at models. My goodness this is a tough crowd. The gfs could be wrong but it has been virtually set in stone for days.And the last 2 runs have been better than the previous 2 with the vort pass. Too much focus on the 850 at imo. If 500 progresses as progged we break the streak. Plain and simple. Here's the last 24 hours of gfs vort passes (newest to oldest): Precip has gotten better too: The euro has done a crappy job all winter and everyone is freaking out because it's not totally on board. We all know this but the euro is awesome at nailing the big coastals. This year it has been pretty bad at run of the mill ns vorts. Which is what we have here. It's nothing special or powerful. GFS has led the way with this stuff all winter. I'm huggin for the right reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 There are timing differences starting to show up. The southern sw 12 hours ago was modeled on the gfs to be off the nc coast by 0z thurs. The latest run has it in western nc at the same time. Also the separation of the ns sw and the ss sw is now much less. I wonder where this is going. I think they are still to far apart to think they might link up. There were supposed to be flights today, so I wonder how that plays out. Lots to be decided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I read the thread before looking at models. My goodness this is a tough crowd. The gfs could be wrong but it has been virtually set in stone for days.And the last 2 runs have been better than the previous 2 with the vort pass. Too much focus on the 850 at imo. If 500 progresses as progged we break the streak. Plain and simple. Here's the last 24 hours of gfs vort passes: vdayvort.JPG Precip has gotten better too: vdayprecip.JPG The euro has done a crappy job all winter and everyone is freaking out because it's not totally on board. We all know this but the euro is awesome at nailing the big coastals. This year it has been pretty bad at run of the mill ns vorts. Which is what we have here. It's nothing special or powerful. GFS has led the way with this stuff all winter. I'm huggin for the right reasons. Bob, your third image from the left is the gfs 18z at 99 hours. The other two to the left of it are not at the same time. Look at the full view of that 18z pic and compare it to the 6z pic at the same time. There's a pretty remarkable difference in the two. Look at how much closer the ns sw is on the latest runs. What do you make of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 How sad and screwed up would it be if this storm turns out to be suppressed, and gives North Carolina and southern/central Virginia another major snowfall? North, south, and west of us have all had good snows. It's our turn now!! Please!! It shouldn't be as bad as it has been for two winters - a 3-5" event would make the snow-lover in me very happy. Will be interested to see how the differences in the models reconcile themselves. Not sure which to believe right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I think the more important reason for this storm to produce is to make people stfu and stop being so whiny and not break the streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Bob, your third image from the left is the gfs 18z at 99 hours. The other two to the left of it are not at the same time. Look at the full view of that 18z pic and compare it to the 6z pic at the same time. There's a pretty remarkable difference in the two. Look at how much closer the ns sw is on the latest runs. What do you make of that? I was just showing the pass and strength. I didn't care about time. The track and strength @ 500 is everything at this point. I think the differences are mostly wobbles. The overall solutions are really close for a global model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It seems to me, and I really hope someone will take the time to correct me if wrong, that the ns sw and it's timing and spacing with the ss sw is going to play a big role in this. That feature is way out over the Pacific. If this is really the case, we might not know for a while yet how this is going to unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Without the euro Zwyts will likely punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I was just showing the pass and strength. I didn't care about time. The track and strength @ 500 is everything at this point. I think the differences are mostly wobbles. The overall solutions are really close for a global model. Well, the timing spacing thing is starting to show on the NAM as well. Do you not believe the ns sw can be so close that it just shoves the ss sw out before it can do much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Well, the timing spacing thing is starting to show on the NAM as well. Do you not believe the ns sw can be so close that it just shoves the ss sw out before it can do much? I'm sure it could mess things up. Really seems to have little influence right now. Our vort is digging far enough south that the one up north won't have an easy time flattening it out. Do I wish the ns one wasn't there? Yep, but so far no biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm sure it could mess things up. Really seems to have little influence right now. Our vort is digging far enough south that the one up north won't have an easy time flattening it out. Do I wish the ns one wasn't there? Yep, but so far no biggie. Seems to be a biggie on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Seems to be a biggie on the euro Yea, good thing the gfs has owned the euro this year with weak ns waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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