ravensrule Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEST STORM...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILLREMAIN IN PLACE WITH ENERGY CONCENTRATED BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTSTATES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD...INDUCING ASURFACE LOW THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GULFCOAST TO THE CAROLINAS. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF OUTPUT NOW MARKTHE SLOW EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ALOFT...BUT 06Z AND 12Z GUIDANCECERTAINLY HAS TRENDED SLOWER. THIS INCLUDES THE UKMET WHICHSUPPORTS OUR CHOICE OF THE 06Z GFS AS A MIDDLE GROUND. THE ECMWFSHOWED THE GREATEST RUN TO RUN CHANGE...AS IT HAD BEEN MARKING THEFAST END OF THE SPECTRUM AND THE 12Z RUN NOW JOINS THE NAM/SREF ATTHE SLOW END.IT IS THE SURFACE WHERE THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER...IN PRODUCINGA LOW TRACK THAT STAYS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MUCH FARTHERINLAND THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS. EVEN THE CANADIAN AND RECENT GFSRUNS...WHICH SUPPORT THE NAM IN OTHER RESPECTS...KEEP LOW PRESSURECONFINED TO THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE IN PLACEACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE GFS IS THOUGHT TO BEDEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHAT PREMATURELY...WITH DEEPENINGMORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTICON DAY 4. BUT THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS BETTER REPRESENT THE OVERALLTREND WITH RESPECT TO TRACK. OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THE UKMETSURFACE LOW TRACK HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND GEFSMEAN...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF SHARES THIS TREND ALTHOUGHSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BEYOND DAY 3. IT IS CURRENTLYDIFFICULT TO FIND ANY OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT CLOSELY FIT OURCONCEPTUAL MODEL...BUT IN COORDINATION WITH THE HPC MEDIUM RANGEPRESSURE DESK...WE FAVOR THE 06Z GFS SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH JUST ASLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH/EAST AND WITH DELAYEDSTRENGTHENING UNTIL REACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 So are you saying the GFS is not believable? lol If you notice any high latitude blocking to slow down a progressive low, I'd like to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If you notice any high latitude blocking to slow down a progressive low, I'd like to see it. Psuedo 50/50 temporarily present doesn't hurt. Digging vort doesn't either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 NAM looks surprisingly consistent so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 i think it's gonna be important to see where that front stalls out in the south given that a wave will be developing along it. this could also be weenie'ism, but i'd think the increasing snow cover to the north might help in keeping temps a little lower than advertised behind the monday system. i know...it's a stretch, but who really knows how all this plays into the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 NAM still pretty consistent at 51 hours...running painfully slow as always on NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 NAM looks pretty pumped up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 NAM looks pretty pumped up again. not quite as bad as 12z....so far thru 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 thru 60 hrs. n stream seems more subdued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 i would gladly and proudly take a rain to snow event if it means a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Jumping back into the fray here today. Understand Bastardi favors JMA. Shocker right? Also thinks King EURO and GFS will correct north. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 looks like nam is a tick north with the precip shield thru 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Oof, ugly at 84. Toss it. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 just fook this year n stream wins....period I don't care about analogs, MJO, or any other meteo voodoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Oof, ugly at 84. Toss it. LOL Double-barrel feature with the northern stream. Very winter 2012-2013 esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Very different from Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS will follow and the Euro....I don't care how it doesn't show snow for us, it just will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 just fook this year n stream wins....period I don't care about analogs, MJO, or any other meteo voodoo This post is interesting, NAM way different than all other models. Onto gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Oof, ugly at 84. Toss it. LOL definitely no model consensus at this point. gonna need to see what happens with the system tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This is why nam talk is frowned upon. Need to stop using it for what it can't do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This is why nam talk is frowned upon. Need to stop using it for what it can't do well. Yeah, seems like typical NAM barf to me. OTS is far more likely than a cutter/runner. I don't see why folks are honestly worried about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This is why nam talk is frowned upon. Need to stop using it for what it can't do well. True. I am still thinking GFS could be right, but seeing the Euro ens now not getting really measurable to DC hurts a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This is why nam talk is frowned upon. Need to stop using it for what it can't do well. Model clutter. It runs so everyone thinks they need to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This is why nam talk is frowned upon. Need to stop using it for what it can't do well. But considering where the Euro is at...maybe the NAM at this point is where we want it...not suppressed and wet...I got nothing...just reaching at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 lol @ you guys dogging the nam...you know dam well if it was showing a blizzard, you'd be hyped lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 But considering where the Euro is at...maybe the NAM at this point is where we want it...not suppressed and wet...I got nothing...just reaching at this point Oh i know, i said last not that id rather have it where it is than suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 EURO supression + NAM moisture + GFS track = D.C. MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 lol @ you guys dogging the nam...you know dam well if it was showing a blizzard, you'd be hyped lol pretty sure in 2010 we dismissed its high totals until they showed up elsewhere etc. even then i think it was probably the highest of all models. it has lots of issues with synoptic winter storms especially outside 24-48 hours.. diminishing returns at distance. nam is a time passer waiting for the others until we're within a day usually and looking for details about the sfc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 just fook this year n stream wins....period I don't care about analogs, MJO, or any other meteo voodoo Good grief you baby lol.knowing the outlier 84 nam will never verify but also is not out to sea or supressed should be encouraging. We need a solution like this to balance other runs out Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Yeah, seems like typical NAM barf to me. OTS is far more likely than a cutter/runner. I don't see why folks are honestly worried about that. Yeah, NAM can't be trusted three days out. If we had one more frame I'd bet it jumps to the coast and we could have a rain to snow event. It will be interesting to see if the EURO trends in the direction of the GFS, how it will do it actually. Supressed for days and its latest run has a unorganized slp over GA moving NE to a position off the Delmarva. Would any change in our favor result in a more amped up coastal that has a more northerly move to it? Or am I being too much of a w_ _ _ _ e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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