PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 ORH_wxman is in the house. We must have a real potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GGEM is a scraper there, but I like the track of the vortmax...it has some potential. What's with the second low in the Midwest?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Being wetter is the key as others have mentioned. That's got to be somewhat in or favor, and different from what we had before. Was your "bust" on the late Jan. event that looked good and then literally dried up in subsequent model runs for here (but hit central/southern VA)? Yeah, that one really hurt I have to admit, it seemed to have some good potential for awhile. In fact, there was even some initial worry that we'd be too warm. i dont even completely remember anymore. it was before the clipper barrage i think. 500 low passing south. ended up too far south. figured we'd get no precip or a few inches.. of course we got no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Yea I know I saw that, Tolland is of course number 1. He for sure called that one in . He makes Ji seem completely normal. Totally OT but that Louisville ND game is sick. I know, as I'm watching it. You like when the guys throws up the hook and it rims and he said "oh no!" Of course louisville last second fail for the 4th time. This sherman guy has like 15 in ot periods when he first started playing. Back to the weather, the event looks good on a solid 0z suite thus far, Euro needs to dr.yes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 thump events work if the dynamics are right....it doesnt matter if it is 50 degrees......they work here...they work in Atlanta GA....they work in Jackson MS...they work in bizarre places when the dynamics are nuts and/or something cuts off.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 What's with the second low in the Midwest?. GGEM is deciding to dig the s/w behind it obscenely SE...prob bogus. But that actually acts to kick the main one E a bit. Without that, GGEM prob would have been a harder hit. Anytime you have the vortmax traveling under DC within 100-150 miles, its a legit threat even if models aren't gung ho on it. That happened in the 1/30/10 storm where they kept trying to keep the heavy snow in NC and S VA but the vortmax was tracking through WV and into S VA...it synoptically didn't seem to make a lot of sense. This vortmax tracks through NC to about ORF, so pretty good, but would need to be a tad more amped to produce well. I wouldn't expect a huge event or anything at this point, but I think it can produce at least something better than a cartopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 i think it's fine for now.. there does seem to be a tendency over the years for the vorts to be under-modeled in the days leading in then you see it strengthen/juice up going in. this is going to move fast so we're not going to get a HECS or something obviously. but there are some fine tuning details that can make or break it assuming the gfs is better than the euro -- which is probably dangerous. the maps are meh if you want to use them as your forecast but they're a fine tool still i think. we need rates... i guess we almost always need rates here. yeah...it works fine as depicted...we dont need any improvement over the 0z GFS...I'd sign on the dotted line...hope the euro hops aboard.....I dont really want a 0.5" event that doesnt stick to the street.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GGEM is deciding to dig the s/w behind it obscenely SE...prob bogus. But that actually acts to kick the main one E a bit. Without that, GGEM prob would have been a harder hit. Anytime you have the vortmax traveling under DC within 100-150 miles, its a legit threat even if models aren't gung ho on it. That happened in the 1/28/10 storm where they kept trying to keep the heavy snow in NC and S VA but the vortmax was tracking through WV and into S VA...it synoptically didn't seem to make a lot of sense. This vortmax tracks through NC to about ORF, so pretty good, but would need to be a tad more amped to produce well. I wouldn't expect a huge event or anything at this point, but I think it can produce at least something better than a cartopper. Thanks Will, glad you got hammered today. Some of those pics from up there are unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 thump events work if the dynamics are right....it doesnt matter if it is 50 degrees......they work here...they work in Atlanta GA....they work in Jackson MS...they work in bizarre places when the dynamics are nuts and/or something cuts off.... My main concern is that the euro is right. We aren't goin to do well with.1" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GGEM is deciding to dig the s/w behind it obscenely SE...prob bogus. But that actually acts to kick the main one E a bit. Without that, GGEM prob would have been a harder hit. Anytime you have the vortmax traveling under DC within 100-150 miles, its a legit threat even if models aren't gung ho on it. That happened in the 1/30/10 storm where they kept trying to keep the heavy snow in NC and S VA but the vortmax was tracking through WV and into S VA...it synoptically didn't seem to make a lot of sense. This vortmax tracks through NC to about ORF, so pretty good, but would need to be a tad more amped to produce well. I wouldn't expect a huge event or anything at this point, but I think it can produce at least something better than a cartopper. fortunately the GGEM is one of the least skilled weather models in existence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Back to the weather, the event looks good on a solid 0z suite thus far, Euro needs to dr.yes us. Yes, I think things overall look pretty good for the VD storm. As you say, it would be nice if the Euro would come more on board. I still think the possible so-called PD3 storm still has potential. GFS has consistenly been digging a huge trough, it's a matter of how it's handled in the end as to whether it's a bomb or just a northern stream low that pushes a strong front through (in either case, looks cold for awhile behind it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 fortunately the GGEM is one of the least skilled weather models in existence Yes, it sucks. It has a progressive bias which is a good thing in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Yes, it sucks. It has a progressive bias which is a good thing in this case. did Kev get 35?....do you think the 40" reports are legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Will are you able to see the UKIE past 72? I see meteocentre's placement of the SLP at 96... besides that I dunno what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 did Kev get 35?....do you think the 40" reports are legit? Most people don't think the 40" totals are legit. There's always bogus weenie totals in large events. My neighboring town reported 34.5"...not a chance they got 6" more than me. I havent investigated the Kevin total, I don't think Ryan believes it though. The other poster from Tolland had 28-30" I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Most people don't think the 40" totals are legit. There's always bogus weenie totals in large events. My neigboring town reported 34.5"...not a chance they got 6" more than me. I havent investigated the Kevin total, I don't think Ryan believes it though. The other poster from Tolland had 28-30" I think. the NYC gradient was sick...23" in Yonkers and 6" at JFK...so dirty if you lived south and east only big storms I can remember like that here would be March 93, March 58 for blockbuster events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 the NYC gradient was sick...23" in Yonkers and 6" at JFK...so dirty if you lived south and east only big storms I can remember like that here would be March 93, March 58 for blockbuster events funny thing on twitter today was the nyc journos saying the storm was minor and localized because nyc didnt get demolished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Will, I really appreciate the insight. Vd is very subtle. Mixed signals for sure. I've liked the window for a while now but the reasons have changed. Thankful the vort stays south but that's not the end all be all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 the NYC gradient was sick...23" in Yonkers and 6" at JFK...so dirty if you lived south and east only big storms I can remember like that here would be March 93, March 58 for blockbuster events Yes...though if you lived a bit more east on LI, you cleaned up. central LI had totals that SNE got. SW LI did terrible though (relatively speaking) near JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm not going to wait for the Euro. Checked the 12 ensemble for the first time a bit ago. It's coming north still. I am an American patriot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm not going to wait for the Euro. Checked the 12 ensemble for the first time a bit ago. It's coming north still. I am an American patriot. I like this version of Ian ian. lol Hope you had a good birthday man! Now to get late present with a nice snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm not going to wait for the Euro. Checked the 12 ensemble for the first time a bit ago. It's coming north still. I am an American patriot. I was counting on you to be the Euro-nator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Will are you able to see the UKIE past 72? I see meteocentre's placement of the SLP at 96... besides that I dunno what happens I do.....what do you want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Need Euro on board this train. Hard to believe we are just begging for a 2-4. It would e nice to see all the blades of grass covered for all of DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I do.....what do you want? mostly SLP at 84 and precip... but I dont think precip goes past 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowloverchris Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 ORH_wxman is in the house. We must have a real potential. yeah I love it when he shows up. I really take notice then, now we neeed to get Wes on board then I believe we have a real shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Ukie at 96 looks pretty squashed. I thought it had potential at 72 but it must have done something in between frames to stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 yeah I love it when he shows up. I really take notice then, now we neeed to get Wes on board then I believe we have a real shot. Wes is on board because he hasn't been off board yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 mostly SLP at 84 and precip... but I dont think precip goes past 72 I only go by 24 hr increments, no 84 for SLP. I have 96 and 120 but no 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 just because we have short memories, here was the 78 hr forecast of the GFS issued on the 12Z 2/5/13 run don't tell me the Euro was the only one that had the blizz and the gfs was that bad http://charlie.wxcaster.com/GFSArchive.php?datetime=2013020512Z&fcsthour=78&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP here's the 84 hr map same run http://charlie.wxcaster.com/GFSArchive.php?datetime=2013020512Z&fcsthour=84&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP now, reconsider what the GFS is showing for us tonight at or slightly beyond that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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