yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 850s may be around zero yes, but this is at night and some decent UVVs... should hold on to a very wet snow IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 how about we worry about warm when the euro actually shows a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Positives: Not suppressed, not OTS and wet. No cold, there s a reason to worry about temps at this time. Fixed it for you. Having no high or even decent cold air to start with makes it tough to get snow with a weakening upper system. We need mega lifting. I'm not ready to punt but think our chances of breaking our 2 inch famine is not that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 how about we worry about warm when the euro actually shows a storm euro has blown this one. it sux. sorry. And when it caves I don't want to hear anymore euro is the best sh!t until we have an amped up miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Wes is throwing rocks because he lives s&e. just kiddin wes. It's a crawl walk run and fraught with problems. But still the best shot @ knocking down the streak all year (that's not saying much though.lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Wes is throwing rocks because he lives s&e. just kiddin wes. It's a crawl walk run and fraught with problems. But still the best shot @ knocking down the streak all year (that's not saying much though.lol). Can't argue with that! It sure is about the best shot we've had for a long time, but it's going to be tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I think wes just said he like the 90 hr nam better than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I think wes just said he like the 90 hr nam better than the gfs. Not with it's track unless the 850 low goes south of us. I don't thinnk it ipmpossible to gt a snowstorm out of this but think it is a uphill battle. especially for folks inside the bletway or east of I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Well it gets cold and dry after a midweek rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Not with it's track unless the 850 low goes south of us. I don't thinnk it ipmpossible to gt a snowstorm out of this but think it is a uphill battle. especially for folks inside the bletway or east of I95. Uphill is the only way we know how to go. 5 runs in a row of improving vort pass for us. We need more dig or God forbid it closes off...... I'm optimistic because these usually give us snow as shown but if it's the exception it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 We knew we were going to have temp issues this period so no surprise we are talking about a hail mary here. they are already talking about another hit for NE on tv. Sigh. Little Nemo redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Optimistic the 850 low will pass just south, south enough to make a snow event permissible. I'm gonna follow climo (no ian not average temp climo), in addition to vv's and lift being nice. Thing we should trend colder, its hard for a model to implement evap and dynamics into its temp analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Temps are of course a concern but there really is no sense digging into every possible outcome until 24-36 hours out. We've all seen these models look colder at that range. ANy event in this awful winter will be gross and terrible and highly flawed at best. Yeah, some folks in the area are going to get totally screwed with cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GGEM barely gets precip into VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 UKMET 12z precip at 72: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GGEM barely gets precip into VA Where are you getting that? Cant find 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 72 UKIE SLP is located over ATL at 1005 mb... with the isobars kinking toward ILM... looks like a good track as it moves ENE I surmise as a crude ruler track usage suggests it would come off near HSE... wish we had an 84 panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Where are you getting that? Cant find 12z. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 72 UKIE SLP is located over ATL at 1005 mb... with the isobars kinking toward ILM... looks like a good track as it moves ENE I surmise as a crude ruler track usage suggests it would come off near HSE... wish we had an 84 panel Here's the 2M temps yoda at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Clueless the precip type maps come out early http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I honestly don't even look at the GGEM it's useless. The RGEM, not so much (though it did miss the snowfall in CT for past storm) While this week's storm could be hit or miss, anyone not excited for the upcoming pattern is blind...NAO could tank, would be surprised if there is not at least 1 big storm till the end of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Where are you getting that? Cant find 12z. Meteocentre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 UKMET 12z precip at 72: Like this is a FWIW kind of map? Totally sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 H5 looks decent enough on 12z UKIE at 72... looks to be a bit faster than the GFS in placement as UKIE is in W TN and GFS is in W AR. Northern energy on UKIE is weak and back in W ND/E MT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 H5 looks decent enough on 12z UKIE at 72... looks to be a bit faster than the GFS in placement as UKIE is in W TN and GFS is in W AR. Northern energy on UKIE is weak and back in W ND/E MT here's a weather post, in general glancing at the UKMET, and seeing the low track from h72 to h96 looks a bit north of last night's evolution. As many have been focusing on, I was studying the position of the northern stream potential kicker, and I agree with you, its definitely well to the north and wouldn't lower the heights along the east in a flattening out in front of the storm. Therefore, I could see the UK with a favorable track to just south of ORF, as the heights might be able to build just a little and there being enough precip on the western flank to provide an improved solution in comparison to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The 12Z Nogaps is a little more amped up than it has been and now gets precip into DC Metro... The Euro will be north on the 12Z run then... The Nogaps has a severe supression bias outside of 3 days, so when that model comes a bit north with its solution, then others will soon follow. Also, the GGEM and Ukie are followers, not leaders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Sterling discussion in case you missed it: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A POTENT UPPER JET WILL POWER THE MONDAY SYSTEM OFF THE COAST - ESPECIALLY THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM W/ UPPER ZONAL FLOW LEFT BEHIND. STILL A COLD UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW'S RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO OUR AREA WILL DRAG SOME COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...DESPITE DRY WX AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE OTHER LEFTOVER PORTION OF THE MONDAY STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL GET SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE FAST-MOVING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VLY. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL THEN PICK THIS SOUTHEAST MOISTURE AND CARRY IT OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS REMAINS THE POINT AT WHICH MED RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE EURO CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM MAKING ANY GREAT STRIDES IN TERMS OF THE INTENSIFYING OR AFFECTING OUR REGION...AND THE END OF THE CURRENT NAM RUN IS INDICATING AN EVEN MORE WEST SOLUTION THAN EITHER OF THE OTHER LARGE-SCALE MODELS. KEEPING A MED-RANGE POP FOR THIS TIME PERIOD FROM WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU...W/ LARGE RAIN/SNOW MIX SWATCH ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AND BETTER CHANCES FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS/SHEN VLY AND PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS TO SEE HOW THE SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT W/ THE SOUTHEAST MOISTURE IN THE COMING DAYS. THU/FRI WILL BE THE HIGH PRESSURE DAYS GIVEN THE CURRENT LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AS CONDITIONS INCH BACK TOWARD NORMAL...BUT THEN A DEEP AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALL THE WAY TO THE SRN ATLC STATES POTENTIALLY BRINGING US ANOTHER COLD WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 if you don't have anything past 72 hrs. on the Ukie and wonder if precip will make it north, here's the map for you...72 hr. 700mb RH and winds usually a pretty good predictor http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest here's the 850 RH and winds too http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest it could go either way with the Ukie getting anything decent to us past 72 hrs 850 temps look OK on the Ukie too, but that may just be because it is surpressed http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro through 42 is digging the s stream s/w more than 0z and its past runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro through 42 is digging the s stream s/w more than 0z and its past runs. it better do something because I just looked at the GFS text in 3-hr intervals for BWI and much of that is rain or mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 it better do something because I just looked at the GFS text in 3-hr intervals for BWI and much of that is rain or mix Not really looking into temps, but judging by what I see through 54 euro isn't gonna do it. Gotta see more. Edit to mention I do think it will be a trend in the right direction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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