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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Fozz

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poor reading....and completely contradictory to the narrative of the last 2 winters where the average event is a cartopper

All I'm saying is that the whole of the east coast (mid Atlantic up thru NE) have suffered these past two years and the first big break was an awfully big one. I don't have the statistics in front of me, but I'd be willing to bet that storms, on average, tend to the bigger these days than say, oh, pre-1990

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All I'm saying is that the whole of the east coast (mid Atlantic up thru NE) have suffered these past two years and the first big break was an awfully big one. I don't have the statistics in front of me, but I'd be willing to bet that storms, on average, tend to the bigger these days than say, oh, pre-1990

 

sounds like you're making stuff up. which might actually make you a global warming expert.

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According to sne the gfs should be euthanized. lol

it's been locked for 6 years on the vd threat. but the euro will catch on and be crowned. It's only good when it shows what you want. weenies

The best is Kevin saying he got 35" when everyone else near him got like 28" max 30" :lmao: .

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Lol, being negative in this area makes you right 90% of the time so don't think your Albert Einstein :P .

 

i show interest in interesting setups. i already 'busted' on one of those this year.. tho i think i made it pretty clear we were likely to get all or nothing in that one, though i ended up leaning the wrong direction.

 

i was skeptical at first with this one as anyone should be if they're not drinking the kool aid.. but it's my kind of setup (as in one that actually can produce).  still plenty of details to work out. could even get a wetter solution still. :P

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According to will, the ukmet looks a bit better than the gfs, which is good, probably means for his area, but would bode well for us.

 

 

Yeah I'm keeping an eye on it here, but I'd be more interested in it if I was down there. The airmass is marginal though so if it ends up as a scraper there it would probably only be a sloppy cartopper with an inch or two of slop NW of the fall line...but given that it's a southern stream impulse...there's a better chance for it to be more amped as we get closer versus a northern stream dominated system. I would probably really want to see the Euro at least make a noticeable jog NW at 00z though.

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if 5" on the west side and 7" on the east side is getting screwed, there are going to be a lot of small wrappers laying around this Board by Wednesday

 

pay maps look a bit different. screwed is relative but places east do better as the vort closes off.

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Fun part is the snow maps from the 0z gfs kinda screw dc

 

 

DCA is 41 when it starts and 33.8 during the height....that should mean 32-33 for you in Cle park....i think that is fine....I dont care for the maps much either way....so DCA gets 2.8", you get 4.25 and IAD gets 6.....I'd take this run verbatim knowing we'd watch rain/snow not stick for a while

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The best is Kevin saying he got 35" when everyone else near him got like 28" max 30" :lmao: .

if you look at the NWS BOX site, they have a map and guess what the highest number is for all of NE....you guessed it, 35"

you know, I admit this is a weird hobby, but to get weird with a weird hobby is a special feat 

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i show interest in interesting setups. i already 'busted' on one of those this year.. tho i think i made it pretty clear we were likely to get all or nothing in that one, though i ended up leaning the wrong direction.

 

i was skeptical at first with this one as anyone should be if they're not drinking the kool aid.. but it's my kind of setup (as in one that actually can produce).  still plenty of details to work out. could even get a wetter solution still. :P

Being wetter is the key as others have mentioned.  That's got to be somewhat in or favor, and different from what we had before.  Was your "bust" on the late Jan. event that looked good and then literally dried up in subsequent model runs for here (but hit central/southern VA)?  Yeah, that one really hurt I have to admit, it seemed to have some good potential for awhile.  In fact, there was even some initial worry that we'd be too warm.

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if you look at the NWS BOX site, they have a map and guess what the highest number is for all of NE....you guessed it, 35"

you know, I admit this is a weird hobby, but to get weird with a weird hobby is a special feat

Yea, I kinda expected the jackpot to be n-s-e-w of tolland but it came as a shocker. But I understand. I had a deep dusting early last week when my neighbors barely had a dusting. Weather is cruel like that

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if you look at the NWS BOX site, they have a map and guess what the highest number is for all of NE....you guessed it, 35"

you know, I admit this is a weird hobby, but to get weird with a weird hobby is a special feat 

Yea I know I saw that, Tolland is of course number 1. He for sure called that one in :lmao: . He makes Ji seem completely normal. Totally OT but that Louisville ND game is sick.

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DCA is 41 when it starts and 33.8 during the height....that should mean 32-33 for you in Cle park....i think that is fine....I dont care for the maps much either way....so DCA gets 2.8", you get 4.25 and IAD gets 6.....I'd take this run verbatim knowing we'd watch rain/snow not stick for a while

 

i think it's fine for now.. there does seem to be a tendency over the years for the vorts to be under-modeled in the days leading in then you see it strengthen/juice up going in. this is going to move fast so we're not going to get a HECS or something obviously. but there are some fine tuning details that can make or break it assuming the gfs is better than the euro -- which is probably dangerous. the maps are meh if you want to use them as your forecast but they're a fine tool still i think. we need rates... i guess we almost always need rates here.

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We've been doing this for a long time. Except for the crowned euro.....this storm has popped up...vanished...smoked us....scared us....and is now thinking about smoking again....haven't we been here a couple times before??

Yeah, kind of reminds me of some quote from Yogi Bera, something about deja vu? :lmao:

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