Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I think it is OK as long as the whole thing gets shunted out south of us. It should w/ the flow above us. Decent wall. Ull is closed @ 66 over ok/tx border. But it's the nam. And it looks really juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This is where my skill stops. Is this good or bad? I think neutral, its colder at 60hrs but also slower but still has a well defined 850 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The NAM seems ready to go all nuts with the blues and purples over someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I think neutral, its colder at 60hrs but also slower but still has a well defined 850 low. "reform" is a 4 letter word...most of the time. But with the compressed flat flow above us it keeps it from doing damage by getting too far north right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Closed h5 vort in W AR at 72... again looks like NAM is cooking something big in its la la land Re-opens at 75 in AR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This should be an epic run at 84, but I'm just happy it looks greater in the early panels. Do I sound like Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 "reform" is a 4 letter word...most of the time. But with the compressed flat flow above us it keeps it from doing damage by getting too far north right? Good question. There also is a vort coming across in the northern stream and at 72 hrs is near the MT/Dks border. Not sure what it's impact might have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 With the pattern being fairly zonal and not much of a PNA ridge, that would seem to strongly favor a flatter system sliding east or ENE off the coast. GFS solution isnt out of the question, but it just seems less likely given the west to east flow and no real ridging in the west. The Euro needs to trend a bit north and colder and that would work to give much of the area a light to moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The NAM seems ready to go all nuts with the blues and purples over someone. i dont think NAM is very accurrate till it gets inside 48 hrs, just my opinion, but still fun to look at sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 i dont think NAM is very accurrate till it gets inside 48 hrs, just my opinion, but still fun to look at sometimes agreed but the slower speed of the vort inside of 48 is what is making the solution possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 So um... still hasn't transferred yet in N KY at 84... vort is close by SLP and weakening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 there's going to be more radar extrapolations on tuesday than rednecks at a monster truck show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Good question. There also is a vort coming across in the northern stream and at 72 hrs is near the MT/Dks border. Not sure what it's impact might have. Only worth talking about for another hour or so...but the vort in the dakotas amps the flow in front just enough to scare the crap out of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Only worth talking about for another hour or so...but the vort in the dakotas amps the flow in front just enough to scare the crap out of us. It's definitely a rainy run if you look at the torching booundary layer temps on Alan's site. Thank goodness it's the NAM but the lack of a high and the fact that the air mass isn't very cold is a concern even with the colder looking GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Only worth talking about for another hour or so...but the vort in the dakotas amps the flow in front just enough to scare the crap out of us. I saw that 81 and 84 hrs maps and thought "here we go again...it's ova'" if it's right, of course, but it's hard to think that a scenario that screws us won't be wrong since it hasn't been wrong in 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If you add the nam and euro together and divide by 2....we get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 We are getting close to those sw pieces phasing, no? Of course it could be wrong, as could my hypothesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 when I look at this map I think "no way this isn;t going right over us for a cold rain" http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's definitely a rainy run if you look at the torching booundary layer temps on Alan's site. Thank goodness it's the NAM but the lack of a high and the fact that the air mass isn't very cold is a concern even with the colder looking GFS run. There is plenty of moisture to work with if the temperatures can crash after the first few hours of precipitation, but no way of telling what happens afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I saw that 81 and 84 hrs maps and thought "here we go again...it's ova'" if it's right, of course, but it's hard to think that a scenario that screws us won't be wrong since it hasn't been wrong in 2 years in my opinion the NAM at 84 hrs is as accurate as the experts predicting the Ravens to lose the superbowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 We are getting close to those sw pieces phasing, no? Of course it could be wrong, as could my hypothesis. that's the way I see it but why would we think the northern stream could screw us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 in my opinion the NAM at 84 hrs is as accurate as the experts predicting the Ravens to lose the superbowl I agree, but when it shows us getting screwed in the same manner that we have been for 2 years, it's hard for me to completely disregard it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 We are getting close to those sw pieces phasing, no? Of course it could be wrong, as could my hypothesis. your hypothesis would = cold rain followed by dryslot followed by sne destruction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 it all comes down to the NAM delaying the southern vort if it's closer to right than wrong, we got problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 id rather than NAM solution than the euro solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'd rather the NAM look like this then ots like the EURO. Gives credence that the EURO is too surpressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Just take from the NAM that it supports a more amped-up solution and not some lame OTS scraper and move on. Specifics on the NAM are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 id rather than NAM solution than the euro solution Agree. I am tired of being fringed north, south, east, and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 it all comes down to the NAM delaying the southern vort if it's closer to right than wrong, we got problems The delay in time isn't very significant. The nam is on roids over tx/ok. Closing the vort off causes the nw solution more than anything. And it's a nam bias so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Did anyone discover any helpful trends in the Euro ensembles after 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.