Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 if the CFS2 was going to be right, it was going to be wrt precip it's done unfortunately well in that regard for JAN and its FEB forecast is no better in the meantime, enjoy the first "spring-like" cold front of the upcoming season here is some precip http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht&cycle=12&fhr=240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 winters over. Thanks HM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 winters over. Thanks HM lol It was a nice 5 day season though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 winters over. Thanks HM lol it is an awful run, but it is just a run....the bright side is we have <6 weeks to suffer if nothing materializes and then we can forget about this winter....though you can always muster something in the 3/16-4/7 period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 wow..wow..GFS no precip through 192 Is that bad? Do we need precip for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 it is an awful run, but it is just a run....the bright side is we have <6 weeks to suffer if nothing materializes and then we can forget about this winter....though you can always muster something in the 3/16-4/7 period ji is not getting april snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 looks good at 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Just a heads up: The precip amounts with the clipper may seem meager but check your ratios. I was modeled to have QPF that low too last week and ended up with nearly 2 inches. Many people in our area saw ratios exceeding 20:1 or so. Now, obviously this isn't the same kind of cold but it is important to check soundings and see how cold it is in the mid levels / is there any frontogensis. There is nothing wrong with the GFS. Plenty of southern stream action and storminess with a revolving polar vortex in Canada. It will loop around through mid Feb at least, dropping south toward Hudson/Quebec and then rising north with NW Atlantic systems. When the PV comes down to its further south points will be when we see our snow chances (the first loop down is all clipper action obviously. the second loop down comes toward 2/10). Inland runners are obviously going to happen with a pattern like this but so will stalled boundaries to our south with waves of low pressure. It's not a bad as it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 we have a good run here and there but there hasnt been 2 back to back good runs on the GFS in the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 ji is not getting april snow probably nothing significant...a decent April snow (2"+) for him is a 1 in 10 year event....he is pretty far west though...40 miles NW of DC at 400-500'.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 April snow is good Denver...not so much in leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 sarcasm is off the charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 That feb 5th died very quickly. Of course euro was right ...Gfs was wrong because euro showed no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 it is an awful run, but it is just a run....the bright side is we have <6 weeks to suffer if nothing materializes and then we can forget about this winter....though you can always muster something in the 3/16-4/7 period I've completely stopped getting hooked into the lr this year. I'm sure you have too. One easy takeaway from this year is no stj + neutral nao = almost no lr skill. December was different because of the -pna and crap epo. That was stable. Nothing else has been. Like HM just said, at least every decent inland storm comes a period of cold. It doesn't takes miracles to get the air in place. It just won't stick around long enough without some sort of stable feature to keep it here. I will laugh when the nao pegs neg in April and we sit in days and days of 50 degree drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If a sloppy wet snowstorm was being modeled ~ 2/10 after a couple of crappy clippers and inland runners, there would still be complaints about the lack of NAO and how this winter has gone. I told the MA to punt when we should earlier in the winter but I can't say to punt yet with this period coming up. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong but I really do think there is something to this period coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 looks good at 384 We will always have the GFS @384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If a sloppy wet snowstorm was being modeled ~ 2/10 after a couple of crappy clippers and inland runners, there would still be complaints about the lack of NAO and how this winter has gone. I told the MA to punt when we should earlier in the winter but I can't say to punt yet with this period coming up. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong but I really do think there is something to this period coming up. HM I also like the 2/25-3/7 period. You looked into that at all? I did well with my 1/25-1/30 prediction back on the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 let's face....this feels good http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LWX/RWRLWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 A 1-2" clipper and a car topper aren't the same thing It might as well be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If a sloppy wet snowstorm was being modeled ~ 2/10 after a couple of crappy clippers and inland runners, there would still be complaints about the lack of NAO and how this winter has gone. I told the MA to punt when we should earlier in the winter but I can't say to punt yet with this period coming up. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong but I really do think there is something to this period coming up. there are different schools of thought in this forum.....there are definitely those that punt events that are a nuisance.....but many of us would welcome a mixy hybrid that thumps 2-4".....I never punt those events in any winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 When you and Mitch start complaining like the weenies you know we are in real trouble. Complaining? No. It is what it is, and I'm just stating such. It's been a miserable winter and I don't see any reason to be hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 there are different schools of thought in this forum.....there are definitely those that punt events that are a nuisance.....but many of us would welcome a mixy hybrid that thumps 2-4".....I never punt those events in any winter... 2 to 4 is a different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 HM I also like the 2/25-3/7 period. You looked into that at all? I did well with my 1/25-1/30 prediction back on the 12th. Well there seems to be an issue in the Tropical Forcing department with 2 areas creating a signal. Therefore the signal has become muddied; but, I suspect general Indonesian forcing to take hold in late Feb for a time, bringing warmth. I would say just after that period might get interesting again but I'll get back to you on that once I let the Tropics settle into the old brain later today. Good job with the 1/25-30 call. What are some of the things you are basing your calls on so I can understand why you are going cooler to end the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It might as well be. I guess it depends what you enjoy....I enjoy winter weather...I enjoyed this last period quite a bit....plus notwithstanding the enjoyment, if I am going to have this sick snow hobby and punt the minor events, it just makes it that much worse....I'd prefer bigger events of course, but there is also a qualitative aspect to these events....I enjoyed the last couple even though the totals were low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 there are different schools of thought in this forum.....there are definitely those that punt events that are a nuisance.....but many of us would welcome a mixy hybrid that thumps 2-4".....I never punt those events in any winter... Yes, I think it is very understood that this Feb pattern isn't the best. But, you have to respect a looping PV in Canada and an active southern stream. Yes, this doesn't force a storm but it certainly increases the chances for one (plowable snow, 2"+). I think 1975 and 1993 show some similarities to this year's global parameters with 75' being too niña for this year and 93' being too niño/volcanic for this year (+AO tendency from Pinatubo). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If a sloppy wet snowstorm was being modeled ~ 2/10 after a couple of crappy clippers and inland runners, there would still be complaints about the lack of NAO and how this winter has gone. I told the MA to punt when we should earlier in the winter but I can't say to punt yet with this period coming up. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong but I really do think there is something to this period coming up. Glad that you are dropping some good info in here for us. I hope it does pan out the way you think it could and will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yes, I think it is very understood that this Feb pattern isn't the best. But, you have to respect a looping PV in Canada and an active southern stream. Yes, this doesn't force a storm but it certainly increases the chances for one (plowable snow, 2"+). I think 1975 and 1993 show some similarities to this year's global parameters with 75' being too niña for this year and 93' being too niño/volcanic for this year (+AO tendency from Pinatubo). yeah...plus I also enjoy the discussion and learning process too.....January 30th is a little early to say we can't get a 3"+ event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 By the way, slightly off topic but, the comments last night (ji and ian) had me laughing out loud in bed when I was half asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Glad that you are dropping some good info in here for us. I hope it does pan out the way you think it could and will be interesting to watch. Hey it's nothing; I enjoy talking about this stuff. I hope it pans out too because this winter has been dreadful. yeah...plus I also enjoy the discussion and learning process too.....January 30th is a little early to say we can't get a 3"+ event... Same here, I enjoy the discussions and learning. Given the issues with the MJO right now, I wouldn't totally buy into "no more winter" after mid-Feb. However, I would keep expectations way low for a few reasons: 1. Stratosphere is beginning to recover in the upper levels. It is possible this could downwell to bring +AO conditions for March. However, my own feelings on it are that it won't be that easy this year since bottom-up disturbances may still be possible. Everyone fears this because it is what happened last year after the SSW mid-winter. 2. The default pattern this winter and default tropical forcing would favor warmth. 3. Lack of snow cover is a big problem going into late winter and mustering up sufficient cold air for snow. We'll see if we can get this repaired to our north over the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 looks good at 384 lol...or looks good at "next year". all kidding aside...the reality is that we're in a rut and it's hard to break out of ruts. it takes work. we're gonna need a bigtime pattern changer, and i'm not experienced enough to know when that will be. i do appreciate weather like this, though...if it's not gonna snow at least i don't have to be outside freezing my ass off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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