mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm pretty sure we arent getting an area wide 12"....Does every potential event have to have a KU analog? I got 10" (barely) where I was and that shows around .8" for mby and I didn't even remember it was a KU probably the most uneventful KU I ever experienced....lol better than half was melted by the end of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm pretty sure we arent getting an area wide 12"....Does every potential event have to have a KU analog? B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 500mb looks similar to Jan 2011 Tonights 00z GFS Jan 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm pretty sure we arent getting an area wide 12"....Does every potential event have to have a KU analog? Looks to me like a much warmer version of 2/19/2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 500mb looks similar to Jan 2011 Tonights 00z GFS gfs.gif Jan 2011 jan11.gif As I was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It looks like a lot of our snowstorms do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm pretty sure we arent getting an area wide 12"....Does every potential event have to have a KU analog? But you said yourself that winter events trend bigger in AGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Looks to me like a much warmer version of 2/19/2001. What was that event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Analogs aside, looks like 2/13-14/2013. 1/26/11 is a great match, but its a storm in its own. Who cares. There will be no commutageddon 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 But you said yourself that winter events trend bigger in AGW I don't think you can use that as a rule in all events. It might make the extreme ones more extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It looks like a lot of our snowstorms do As long as it doesn't end up like our 4 day modeled snowstorms do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Jan 2011 also went rain to snow, turned to heavy snow after the vort passed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Jan 2011 also went rain to snow, turned to heavy snow after the vort passed Yes it did indeed, and the vort is similar. Might be less rain initially if we can get right to the good stuff off the bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'll tell you what I don;t like those d@mn NCEP 3 hr interval maps the old 6 hour maps you could just add them up and get a pretty decent estimate of qpf these 3 hour maps are actually 6 hrs. of precip ending at the end of the 3 hr period if they are going to do 3 hr interval maps then do 3hr. qpf for that 3 hr period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 What was that event? 3 to 6 areawide. Temps in the 20's. Similiar track to what is shown here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It looks like a lot of our snowstorms do Yeah, exactly. These things usually cool off 24-48 hours out, anyway. Still 80+ hours to go for final details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 As long as it doesn't end up like our 4 day modeled snowstorms do. GFS has had great continuity. If I had to bet the euro will come north with precip. If the GFS wins this battle I'm going to start a praise the GFS campaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 what is the max potential of this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Our vort that we need to iron out is getting inside 3 days, confidence increasing on this one. Euro hopefully keeps trending N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 what is the max potential of this storm? 18-24? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 what is the max potential of this storm? The NAM's solution, but in reality I'd guess 6-10. The NAM would be a KU, also is the NAM, unlikely, and too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 what is the max potential of this storm? cartopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 what is the max potential of this storm? Ji, IMO, if the vort is as strong as modeled, once you turn to snow you could get a pretty large 8+ inch thump. Jan 2011was very similar and I got 13-15" in like 6 hours it was awesome. Look at the UVVs on the GFS, it would come down pretty hard imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 18-24? There is a better chance of me going chasing with you this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 These threads are predictable We need snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Ji, IMO, if the vort is as strong as modeled, once you turn to snow you could get a pretty large 8+ inch thump. Jan 2011was very similar and I got 13-15" in like 6 hours it was awesome. Look at the UVVs on the GFS, it would come down pretty hard imo. where are you? a got almost 6" of snow with 1.3" qpf a couple of degrees would have got me what you had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidjd1994 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 i got thundersnow in the Jan 2011 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 where are you? a got almost 6" of snow with 1.3" qpf a couple of degrees would have got me what you had He is in Philly I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Ji, IMO, if the vort is as strong as modeled, once you turn to snow you could get a pretty large 8+ inch thump. Jan 2011was very similar and I got 13-15" in like 6 hours it was awesome. Look at the UVVs on the GFS, it would come down pretty hard imo. Yeah its all on the vort, we'd have bigtime rates verbatim this run of the GFS. The 1/26 event gave me around 8 inches in the evening, 8-10 compaction played a part. Philly got like 15 and NYC 20, these things can pump it out. This is a good vort and a good track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 very distressed about pd3. what happened to the strong sw that was on the maps yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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