Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS looks huge. It is a very nice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Thump 8pm to 2 am? Nice timing IF right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 until you look at this map http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_093_10m_wnd_precip.gif still, I'll take it and hope future panels show great rates after dark Still 90+ hours to cool down. I am just glad to finally see some damn precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This run is good I endorse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Thump 8pm to 2 am? Nice timing IF right Looks about right, boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 common dude. sun angle is fine Feb 14. starts going downhill Feb 15 the problem is warm ground, no HP and crappy air mass....you'll be ok...but DC will waste some QPF on non accumulating snow and maybe even rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Nice placement of the 850 low at 99 and 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 exactly like 00z robust run of yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 the problem is warm ground, no HP and crappy air mass....you'll be ok...but DC will waste some QPF on non accumulating snow and maybe even rain I think we could deal with a few hours of rain to snow thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 the problem is warm ground, no HP and crappy air mass....you'll be ok...but DC will waste some QPF on non accumulating snow and maybe even rainIll take some rain if we can close like thishttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_102_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Really does remind me of the ULL event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 epic(for DC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 has that 2/87 look to it not exact, but a warm start and great rates at night similar qpf I bet too if I looked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Ill take some rain if we can close like this http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_102_500_vort_ht.gif Also... UVV's on the h7 map show up strongly at 96 and 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 until you look at this map http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_093_10m_wnd_precip.gif still, I'll take it and hope future panels show great rates after dark it isnt a big deal with the right track on 2/14......remember the storm earlier this winter where central VA got 5" and it was 47 here?....remember the storm Ian and I chased end of last FEB which dumped 4-6" over central VA and it was low 40s in DC?....these things happen with the right track....it can be 38 in State College and I don't care....if we get thumped...we'll all drop to 31-34.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Wow what a run ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 the problem is warm ground, no HP and crappy air mass....you'll be ok...but DC will waste some QPF on non accumulating snow and maybe even rain I don't agree with the warm ground idea. Maybe the top inch, if that. I think you guys would do ok with this run. Temps always seem to trend down the closer we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 the problem is warm ground, no HP and crappy air mass....you'll be ok...but DC will waste some QPF on non accumulating snow and maybe even rain yup. I think focusing on the exact sfc freezing line at this point is futile. We'll mostly likely have marginal, ****ty temps where we'll pick up our totals in a thump. 2 to 4 or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 has that 2/87 look to it not exact, but a warm start and great rates at night similar qpf I bet too if I looked I'm pretty sure we arent getting an area wide 12"....Does every potential event have to have a KU analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Looks like a decent 4-6... maybe 4-8 if it was all snow but it wont be... i would say (as zwyts did above) we could see a few hours of rain/non-accum snow before the thump... DCA is around .8 QPF... lil over 1" in S MD... would take off .2 for rain/non accum snow. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Ill take some rain if we can close like thishttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs/00/gfs_namer_102_500_vort_ht.gif'>http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs/00/gfs_namer_102_500_vort_ht.gif That's the best looking 500 map I've seen for us in two years. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm pretty sure we arent getting an area wide 12"....Does every potential event have to have a KU analog? Am I allowed to say ULL 1/26? Was a KU up north, but just a SECS for some of our area... and its similar in r to hvy snow as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro is going south next run Silly Americans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 yup. I think focusing on the exact sfc freezing line at this point is futile. We'll mostly likely have marginal, ****ty temps where we'll pick up our totals in a thump. 2 to 4 or bust. It is all 850/500/sfc track and bombing low....As PSU and Ian stated earlier in the winter, sometimes the air mass is irrelevant...it DOES mean me and you waste some QPF, but who cares?...storms are imperfect...we live in DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Anyone notice we are right in the cross-hair on Wednesday PM? Oy this runs a thumpin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Seems it has the juice back. A little more and maybe it can draw in just enough cold air to make it all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Am I allowed to say ULL 1/26? Was a KU up north, but just a SECS for some of our area... and its similar in r to hvy snow as modeled. we can...I get easily annoyed when every event is projected to be either a cartopper or a KU.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro is going south next run Silly Americans Bet it doesn't. Regardless, you guys have fun with it. I'll catch the early edition, as in tomorrow around sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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