Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I would hazard a guess at a jumper to down by the SC with the isobars kinking out that way yea, but it won't matter because it's a massive outlier. if gfs comes aboard with a more robust vort <48 then it's gonna be porn tonight. At least for somebody. And if the gfs doesn't show it you can ppv it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I would hazard a guess at a jumper to down by the SC/NC border with the isobars kinking out that way Wouldn't be too bad if that were the case with the vort dug that way, but I doubt its correct. The trend of an amped vort could help us though as bob just said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 the NAM had an historic 40N blizzard not making it past our latitude like 48 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro or die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 How did it take until almost 10 to see the full run of the NAM? Has it been running slower and slower lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 yea, but it won't matter because it's a massive outlier. if gfs comes aboard with a more robust vort <48 then it's gonna be porn tonight. At least for somebody. And if the gfs doesn't show it you can ppv it. It's probably futile trying to extrapolate the nam but the 250 jet is interesting and I think would argue for reformation somewhere in the carolinas, that might not rule out the primary still track northeast for a little while longer. Here's the 850 jet. Note how westerly it still is. Also look at teh double jet structure. Too bad it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro or die My guess is it will come north some but you are right about being skeptical of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's probably futile trying to extrapolate the nam but the 250 jet is interesting and I think would argue for reformation somewhere in the carolinas, that might not rule out the primary still track northeast for a little while longer. Here's the 850 jet. Note how westerly it still is. Also look at teh double jet structure. Too bad it's the NAM Feb_9_2013_nam_namer_084_300_wnd_ht.gif Would be one of the more favorable miller B solutions we see around here. The track of that is actually similar to 2/10/10 wrt the primary. As you said, its the NAM, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 How did it take until almost 10 to see the full run of the NAM? Has it been running slower and slower lately? it has always taken 4 years between every panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I actually think that kicker over Montana should keep it moving the vort along west--->east vs. cutting, my fear I would think we could do OK with a bowling ball scenario http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif also, I note that the 540 thickness line stays pretty stationary west-east from 78 hrs thru 84 hrs, which I think also suggests it sliding more east than cutting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 it has always taken 4 years between every panel I just realized it's because I haven't checked past 48-hours on the NAM in a long, long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'd stay pretty interested in this one down there. The Euro ensembles looked close to the OP track and had a tenth or two back near there which probably suggested there were some decent members in there...and the Euro has inched NW for each run in the last 4 or so, even if at the speed of a snail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Its a good sign that even with a pretty amped up shortwave that would normally look like a cutter we still have the cold holding. The track reminds me a bit of Jan 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's one thing to be skeptical of the NAM, but the reality of the day is everything moving toward a more reliable storm. I still don't want a perfect setup on the more "reliable" models. Let them slowly get there. I'll probably regret saying this, but I'm becoming less afraid of the slider notion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Is there something really wrong with my post that entailed that? I don't really see whats weenieish about it, just being honest. You've cited the DGEX 6 or 7 times in this thread alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I just realized it's because I haven't checked past 48-hours on the NAM in a long, long time. smart.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 but isn't the massive Nam vort showing within 30 hours which is within wheelhouse? its not really the 84 Nam but 30 nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Not exactly the same strength as the NAM at 42, but I would say that is close by the GFS at h5 at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's probably futile trying to extrapolate the nam but the 250 jet is interesting and I think would argue for reformation somewhere in the carolinas, that might not rule out the primary still track northeast for a little while longer. Here's the 850 jet. Note how westerly it still is. Also look at teh double jet structure. Too bad it's the NAM Feb_9_2013_nam_namer_084_300_wnd_ht.gif Would be one of the more favorable miller B solutions we see around here. The track of that is actually similar to 2/10/10 wrt the primary. As you said, its the NAM, unfortunately. I think it looks more similar to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 but isn't the massive Nam vort showing within 30 hours which is within wheelhouse? its not really the 84 Nam but 30 nam the euro is so good right now I'd intentionally walk it and walk in the tying run to get to the NAM....euro is on a heater... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The NAM and GFS are undercards...main event at 12:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Heh. I think it looks more similar to this ImageUploadedByTapatalk1360467633.530741.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The NAM and GFS are undercards...main event at 12:45 yeah, it got this storm early and had the NE blizzard pegged for days, but remember how overboard with qpf for us it was along with the possibility of a changeover all the way up until Friday 12z? it's far from perfect and before this storm it had its azz handed to it by the gfs a number of times it seems that it's only great calling for storms out of the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's a nice run...I just worry about temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 the euro is so good right now I'd intentionally walk it and walk in the tying run to get to the NAM....euro is on a heater... euro is Ryan Howard pre injury...on a hot streak but lot of Ks too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS looks huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 the delayed start helps a little...getting the thump after dark will be huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS looks huge. until you look at this map http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_093_10m_wnd_precip.gif still, I'll take it and hope future panels show great rates after dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's a nice run...I just worry about temps Looks like it comes in Wed night... which would help us in that dept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 the delayed start helps a little...getting the thump after dark will be huge common dude. sun angle is fine Feb 14. starts going downhill Feb 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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