Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

February 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Fozz

Recommended Posts

I would hazard a guess at a jumper to down by the SC with the isobars kinking out that way

 

yea, but it won't matter because it's a massive outlier. 

 

if gfs comes aboard with a more robust vort <48 then it's gonna be porn tonight. At least for somebody. And if the gfs doesn't show it you can ppv it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

yea, but it won't matter because it's a massive outlier. 

 

if gfs comes aboard with a more robust vort <48 then it's gonna be porn tonight. At least for somebody. And if the gfs doesn't show it you can ppv it. 

 

It's probably futile trying to extrapolate the nam but the 250 jet is interesting and I think would argue for reformation somewhere in the carolinas,  that might not rule out the primary still track northeast for a little while longer.  Here's the 850 jet. Note how westerly it still is.  Also look at teh double jet structure.  Too bad it's the NAM

 

post-70-0-25902600-1360465103_thumb.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's probably futile trying to extrapolate the nam but the 250 jet is interesting and I think would argue for reformation somewhere in the carolinas,  that might not rule out the primary still track northeast for a little while longer.  Here's the 850 jet. Note how westerly it still is.  Also look at teh double jet structure.  Too bad it's the NAM

 

attachicon.gifFeb_9_2013_nam_namer_084_300_wnd_ht.gif

Would be one of the more favorable miller B solutions we see around here. The track of that is actually similar to 2/10/10 wrt the primary. As you said, its the NAM, unfortunately. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I actually think that kicker over Montana should keep it moving the vort along west--->east vs. cutting, my fear

I would think we could do OK with a bowling ball scenario

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif

also, I note that the 540 thickness line stays pretty stationary west-east from 78 hrs thru 84 hrs, which I think also suggests it sliding more east than cutting

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd stay pretty interested in this one down there. The Euro ensembles looked close to the OP track and had a tenth or two back near there which probably suggested there were some decent members in there...and the Euro has inched NW for each run in the last 4 or so, even if at the speed of a snail.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's one thing to be skeptical of the NAM, but the reality of the day is everything moving toward a more reliable storm. I still don't want a perfect setup on the more "reliable" models. Let them slowly get there. I'll probably regret saying this, but I'm becoming less afraid of the slider notion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's probably futile trying to extrapolate the nam but the 250 jet is interesting and I think would argue for reformation somewhere in the carolinas, that might not rule out the primary still track northeast for a little while longer. Here's the 850 jet. Note how westerly it still is. Also look at teh double jet structure. Too bad it's the NAM

Feb_9_2013_nam_namer_084_300_wnd_ht.gif

Would be one of the more favorable miller B solutions we see around here. The track of that is actually similar to 2/10/10 wrt the primary. As you said, its the NAM, unfortunately.

I think it looks more similar to this

post-178-136046763702.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM and GFS are undercards...main event at 12:45

yeah, it got this storm early and had the NE blizzard pegged for days, but remember how overboard with qpf for us it was along with the possibility of a changeover all the way up until Friday 12z?

it's far from perfect and before this storm it had its azz handed to it by the gfs a number of times

it seems that it's only great calling for storms out of the MA

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...