Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Seems the GFS always has the 500 vort work it's way slowly north from this point in time with most storms. I wouldn't be surprised if this slowly moves north some from the position being shown. Unless the gfs is totally screwing up the low over the maritimes I don't think it's a worry. Pretty good compressed flow. I think the goalposts are pretty well set and too far n/w is looks a lot less likely than a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Unless the gfs is totally screwing up the low over the maritimes I don't think it's a worry. Pretty good compressed flow. I think the goalposts are pretty well set and too far n/w is looks a lot less likely than a couple days ago. No, I wasn't talking about a move like that. Right now it's got it in the upstate area of SC. I'd be talking about a move to about tha nc/va border. Of course the trend has been to move it a bit south with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 No, I wasn't talking about a move like that. Right now it's got it in the upstate area of SC. I'd be talking about a move to about tha nc/va border. Of course the trend has been to move it a bit south with each run. I was about to say, what he said was probably not what you mean't. You think if it moves just a bit north, it'll be in the optimal area for DC to get the best rates and qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 No, I wasn't talking about a move like that. Right now it's got it in the upstate area of SC. I'd be talking about a move to about tha nc/va border. Of course the trend has been to move it a bit south with each run. misread your post. You were thinking of it as a good way vs bad. It's going to be a nail biter no matter what. But they all are and many are wall pounders as well. lol I'd take the current track with a more amped up vort. Get a really nice deform on the nw side going but not turn the corner and scare us with rain and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 hour 102 doesnt look too bad..the thump probably happens between 98-101....i think even the city gets a nice thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 misread your post. You were thinking of it as a good way vs bad. It's going to be a nail biter no matter what. But they all are and many are wall pounders as well. lol I'd take the current track with a more amped up vort. Get a really nice deform on the nw side going but not turn the corner and scare us with rain and sleet. In that regard, I think were in a good spot. I'll take my chances, and if we can get just a bit stronger system, the vort is nice, we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Well, to be honest guys I hadn't considered the implications of the vortex pass not being as far south as modeled. I was just commenting on the pattern I've noticed with the American models gradually brining these a bit north with each run as we get closer to an event. Of course this could be a completely different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Well, to be honest guys I hadn't considered the implications of the vortex pass not being as far south as modeled. I was just commenting on the pattern I've noticed with the American models gradually brining these a bit north with each run as we get closer to an event. Of course this could be a completely different animal. We could sit here and discuss the storm for a few hours to pass the time before 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 hour 102 doesnt look too bad..the thump probably happens between 98-101....i think even the city gets a nice thump Just make sure stoopid dca measures properly. The streak has to go man. It has everybody thinking worst case all the time. Nobody believes it can even snow here anymore. I mostly stay objective but man, it's a tough crowd nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Just make sure stoopid dca measures properly. The streak has to go man. It has everybody thinking worst case all the time. Nobody believes it can even snow here anymore. I mostly stay objective but man, it's a tough crowd nowadays. Sent you a message, but compiling some data for exact temps and qpf from the GFS this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 After the ne storm...it's hard to get excited about this quick moving event. I want last night 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 After the ne storm...it's hard to get excited about this quick moving event. I want last night 00z run It could curl up for us if the vort can dig a bit more and be more intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 yesterday's run was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 For DCA: GFS starts around 39 degrees at the beginning of the precip, where nearly .1 falls. However, temps drop to sub 34 during the time of the thump, totaling .37 from 18z wed to 0z thu. Cooling would help if we get good rates, 850's sub -2.5 the whole duration of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 After the ne storm...it's hard to get excited about this quick moving event. I want last night 00z run it's a tough crowd nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I could get excited about the dgex 102 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Looks like this one may be another Blue Ridge special. Not saying that b/c it is my back yard, but soundings verbatim aren't bad West of a CHO - Warrenton - OKV line. As I said before, that 850 can not pass over/north of us like it did on 12z. I really hope we can all cash in on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 For DCA: GFS starts around 39 degrees at the beginning of the precip, where nearly .1 falls. However, temps drop to sub 34 during the time of the thump, totaling .37 from 18z wed to 0z thu. Cooling would help if we get good rates, 850's sub -2.5 the whole duration of the precip. Not even a warning event. Punt that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 yesterday's run was better. thx deb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Ji After the ne storm...it's hard to get excited about this quick moving event. I want last night 00z run _____________________ LOL! (null) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Looks like this one may be another Blue Ridge special. Not saying that b/c it is my back yard, but soundings verbatim aren't bad West of a CHO - Warrenton - OKV line. As I said before, that 850 can not pass over/north of us like it did on 12z. I really hope we can all cash in on this one! 18z was definitely better wrt the vort and features than 12z, also a bit cooler. I think we could cash on this one, I am optimistic the s/w will be amped as the gfs has it, and to be honest, the DGEX solution (which is obviously way overdone we can say with decent confidence) in a condensed version (i.e. the low track, vort pass) is not all that erroneous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 thx deb sorry. i've locked it in. mass accumulation for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 sorry. i've locked it in. mass accumulation for all. you're talking about the state aren't you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Good late night tv of our vort coming down behind the bowling ball. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Not even a warning event. Punt that I'm about to punt you through the window of your house to the speed limit sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 you're talking about the state aren't youNot sure what you meanThe vort pass is good still at least. Now we need more cold air and more dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 there are a lot of things going against us Negatives: - The pattern is good...not great - Poor air mass - no high pressure to the north or northwest - persistence - hard to get big storm in otherwise crappy, torchy winters unless a fluke(12/73, 2/95(but nino), 3/99, 3/09 (but cold winter), 2/06( but decent cold DEC) - climo in torch, bad enso winters STRONGLY suggests modest events only for the coastal plain - hard for DC to get snow in general - Nina is a deathknell Positives: -February may be undergoing a slight ENSO lag bounce from Fall nino-ish conditions - We have a faux southern stream, though probably a bit too weak, not unlike some weak ENSO years - EPO has made colder air more accessible - the pattern isnt hostile to a modest event - We are due? - if 40N, then why not us? (1969, one of my analogs popping up, but we had to wait until March) - the PAC is way better in general than we have seen in a while - 6"+ events for DC and immediate burbs happen about 50% of winters - AGW is causing bigger events I think with any discrete event in the upcoming 10-14 days, until we are <48 hours it is foolhardy to hope for a 6"+ event given the above factors other than for morale and fun...If we are sincerely thinking any of these events has a better than 50-50 chances of materializing into a 5-8"+ event, then there isn't really much that separates us from the random ignorant public I like this post. Some should read it a couple of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Not sure what you mean The vort pass is good still at least. Now we need more cold air and more dynamics Just being a smartass.... mass = MA....as in boston etc... I know..pretty lame. You know this stuff better than me so I definitely know you are interested. May not be anything major but we both like these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Just being a smartass.... mass = MA....as in boston etc... I know..pretty lame. You know this stuff better than me so I definitely know you are interested. May not be anything major but we both like these setups. Ahh yeahIll take that vort path and hope for sure. Would prob favor NW tho the Euro needs to come aboard more. Could still be a fringer.. I won't hate on the GFS but I'm not going to buy it wholeheartedly either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 if memory serves, the DGEX for us looks like what it showed for NE in today's storm in a similar time frame, so that's encouraging <hoping it remains good with this pattern> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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