TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 We'll do better with a more wsw-ene track. Even though it would prob be a wetter solutions, a sw-ne track brings more temp problems into the mix unless some weak high starts showing up to our north. This is a really good run. Could be a Jan 30, 2010 impact zone. Bal city south 3-4+ potential. Way too premature for that though, i like h5 and 850 a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 3-5" baltimore, 4-6" DC this run. Would like the best a bit north so we can all rejoice. Digging is nice so this can jackpot BAL/DC. Lotta runs to go, but 2" streak could be broken for DC and 2+ for BWI since they got 2 in the one clipper. I am going to look at soundings and see if this afternoon storm is a 4-6" snowstorm for dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I think if we could get it stronger a sw-ne traj would be ok. In fact I'm hoping for that. If that happened, expect a juicy solution. If he's so far all in, he might as well jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I am going to look at soundings and see if this afternoon storm is a 4-6" snowstorm for dcYou seem angry? Timing is hard to nail at this range, especially with the euro a bit slower. The vort stuff we need is inside 90 hrs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 @bob...yea i went high because i like the setup and think this could trend a tad north..not much to suppress it to my eyes... gfs has been the wettest of the majors though. not saying its wrong buts it's shown multiple versions of .5 - 1" without a lot of extra support (dgex does NOT count. lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 below 400' snow really has to rip in the afternoon to stick well in mid February....it can be 32-34, but it has to rip 1/2 viz or less.....it is still better than 2 weeks later...but 2/14 is the beginning of the time when sun angle is a serious b-itch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 agree...i think temps are a concern for many of us especially with the timing...the best rippage is probably in between 1 and 6 Agree about timing if the model is correct, but even at that precip looks to be falling by daybreak as there is measurable precip showing by 15z. That would limit some of the daytime heating I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 You seem angry? Timing is hard to nail at this range, especially with the euro a bit slower. The vort stuff we need is inside 90 hrs now. you just told me the GFS is a 4-6" snowstorm for DC...I am going to check if that is he case...that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I think the track looks more like the Euro on this run but just colder. Storm is there.. Now we need it to keep trending colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Agree about timing if the model is correct, but even at that precip looks to be falling by daybreak as there is measurable precip showing by 15z. That would limit some of the daytime heating I'd think. This was one of the thoughts I had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 below 400' snow really has to rip in the afternoon to stick well in mid February....it can be 32-34, but it has to rip 1/2 viz or less.....it is still better than 2 weeks later...but 2/14 is the beginning of the time when sun angle is a serious b-itch Timing is up in the air. Vort was a little faster out of the sw. Maybe we get lucky with an early push of clouds and light precip near dawn ...just bein a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Nice swath of the n side of the low. Overall a great run. I can't believe how narrow the envelope has been for the gfs for like 4-6 runs now. 18zprecip.JPG Verbatim that's all rain for most of VA. DC and Balt never even get down to freezing at the surface till all the precip has moved through. Gotta find some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Timing is up in the air. Vort was a little faster out of the sw. Maybe we get lucky with an early push of clouds and light precip near dawn ...just bein a weenie We need to make sure it doesn't get too fast on us thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Verbatim that's all rain for most of VA. DC and Balt never even get down to freezing at the surface till all the precip has moved through. Gotta find some cold air. really?...you looked at soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Timing is up in the air. Vort was a little faster out of the sw. Maybe we get lucky with an early push of clouds and light precip near dawn ...just bein a weenie Well this run shows exactly that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Verbatim that's all rain for most of VA. DC and Balt never even get down to freezing at the surface till all the precip has moved through. Gotta find some cold air. It doesn't have to be below freezing for snow. Look at some on the obs from last night in the ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 really?...you looked at soundings? I was mostly looking at the surface maps and by most of VA I mean anyone along a latitude slightly north of C-ville. Not the DCA area. DCA/BAL probably see snow on this run but you have to admit the surface temps are marginal at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 It doesn't have to be below freezing for snow. Look at some on the obs from last night in the ne.That was more dynamically driven and there was a more powerful set of features to allow temps to crash.However, youre right it doesnt have to be 32 or lower to pound. We'd definitely drop quick though with some evap precip comes down pretty heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 It doesn't have to be below freezing for snow. Look at some on the obs from last night in the ne. I understand that. But you can't be overly optimistic when the surface temps are hovering around 5C for Central VA. It might snow but the ratios would be rather low. Same sort of thing happened to us during the Jan 2011 storm if I recall correctly (although that may have mostly been due to a poor track for our area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 PD3 doesnt look too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 PD3 doesnt look too bad You beat me to it and it's colder though I don't think you can rule out the earlier storm as it has a great track. Boundary layer temps for it are are tricky but that can wait until later and soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I was mostly looking at the surface maps and by most of VA I mean anyone along a latitude slightly north of C-ville. Not the DCA area. DCA/BAL probably see snow on this run but you have to admit the surface temps are marginal at best. It's snow for most if not all of metro during the best rates. 850's are definitely snow. 540 thickness contour is a good one to use without a sounding and it shows the same: How well it sticks is a different story. Plus, gfs @ 100 hours with close call on temps in not a good tool. That 850 and 500 track scream snow. There's no low nearby to the nw to screw it all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Both storms look good for MD/DC this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 It's snow for most if not all of metro during the best rates. 850's are definitely snow. 540 thickness contour is a good one to use without a sounding and it shows the same: How well it sticks is a different story. Plus, gfs @ 100 hours with close call on temps in not a good tool. That 850 and 500 track scream snow. There's no low nearby to the nw to screw it all up. True true. Again, mostly thinking of MBY and areas within a certain latitude radius. It's hard not to be a little pessimistic when you're right up against the mountains! Although the heaviest precip does actually come over our area, so if there's any hope for the surface down south this run has the best look so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Best -nao look of the year showing too. Still east based but nIce closed 546dm ridge pusing into greenland pre-pdiii and it hangs around for a while too. Would like to see it assert itself more west but hard to complain about the best blocking since early dec (when it didn't even mean anything). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 True true. Again, mostly thinking of MBY and areas within a certain latitude radius. It's hard not to be a little pessimistic when you're right up against the mountains! Although the heaviest precip does actually come over our area, so if there's any hope for the surface down south this run has the best look so far. Ah, I didn't see your location when I responded. I thought you were va burbs of dv. Yea, lyh is a different story. Still a good track for you if it digs and cranks. I'm pullin for ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Seems the GFS always has the 500 vort work it's way slowly north from this point in time with most storms. I wouldn't be surprised if this slowly moves north some from the position being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 this is DC when it is ripping....this is problematic, but i think by 4pm it might be ok...will just waste an hour or 2 getting the temp down to 33-34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 PD3 doesnt look too bad I thought so too. Modeled as is, it would be a cold snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I thought so too. Modeled as is, it would be a cold snow. Usually with a trough like that youd expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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