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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread

Fozz

By Fozz,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Had some time to really look at the euro. It's a fair step in the right direction. Not as agressive as the gfs @ 500 and pretty much in between turning the corner and sliding. 850 0c is a lot further south than the gfs. Of course it's a function of the track but a solution right in between the 2 globals probably breaks the streak. 

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

Figure I'd mess with zwyts since there were crickets, Euro is almost there. I'm gaining more confidence we'll get something.

 

there are a lot of things going against us

 

Negatives:

 

 - The pattern is good...not great

 - Poor air mass

 - no high pressure to the north or northwest

  - persistence

 - hard to get big storm in otherwise crappy, torchy winters unless a fluke(12/73,  2/95(but nino), 3/99, 3/09 (but cold winter), 2/06( but decent cold DEC)

 - climo in torch, bad enso winters STRONGLY suggests modest events only for the coastal plain

 - hard for DC to get snow in general

- Nina is a deathknell

 

Positives:

 

-February may be undergoing a slight ENSO lag bounce from Fall nino-ish conditions

 - We have a faux southern stream, though probably a bit too weak, not unlike some weak ENSO years

  - EPO has made colder air more accessible

 - the pattern isnt hostile to a modest event

 - We are due?

 - if 40N, then why not us? (1969, one of my analogs popping up, but we had to wait until March)

 - the PAC is way better in general than we have seen in a while

 - 6"+ events for DC and immediate burbs happen about 50% of winters

 - AGW is causing bigger events

 

I think with any discrete event in the upcoming 10-14 days, until we are <48 hours it is foolhardy to hope for a 6"+ event given the above factors other than for morale and fun...If we are sincerely thinking any of these events has a better than 50-50 chances of materializing into a 5-8"+ event, then there isn't really much that separates us from the random ignorant public

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

Welp...Feb 4/5 S/W came an went not much fan fair with it but some precip dropped over MA...RWT energy was busted up into several pieces of energy so it is what it is LOL. The 7/8 RWT came across MA and did it's job teaming up with the southern wave and the rest is history!!!...5-10 degree warm up appears on track for Feb 11 with next RWT for 14/15 and then 16/17 and another 18/19. The 16/17 based on Mtn. Torque events appears it should dump a decent pocket of cold air across the northern tier for a brief period of time.

 

Extending forecast....S/W arriving Feb. 21-22 with what appears to be a good shot of cold air behind it. Another S/W for Feb. 26-27 and then heading into March...cooler air arriving somewhere between March 5-9...I would venture a guess at a SW for March 4/5 with a decent warm temp spike ahead of it for March 2 or 3 with cooler air filtering in behind it for the 5-9 time frame.

So I would say don't get discouraged...still plenty of opportunities coming down the pipeline for some magic! With mtn. torque indicating cold air should be arriving to the north for 16/17 and RWTs being broke up in the Pacific by the ridge and producing pockets of energy for the southern stream and RWT energy expected to arrive 14/15;16/17; and 18/19 giving us 3 different shots for phasing so...I think things look favorable to get lucky.

The RWT that was over India last week is still expected to arrive Feb 4 or 5 it appears as a clipper. Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7. Then Feb 7 or 8 another RWT which was over Africa last week should arrive and colder air moving in behind it for Feb 7-11. This one started off at a pretty high latitude so I believe it will be a weak clipper. It appears after that we will see at LEAST at 5-10 degree warm up for Feb. 11-13 ahead of the next system that will pass through the east Feb 14 or 15 with a quick shot of cooler air behind it before another S/W arrives Feb 18 or 19th (tentative)The pattern is really chaotic as HM, others and myself have noted so it's harder to bit on the signals 4 weeks out right now so I am waiting for newer GWO data to reconfirm or disprove my thoughts about S/W's beyond Feb 14, part of the reason why I left the Feb 18/19 S/W tentative because the arrival date may change +/-1 day. But tentative dates I have for other S/W's and shots of cooler air are feb 21-25 and Feb 27-March 3.

And a blast from the past...for our storm

So we have the xt RTW that was in the pacific back on wednesday on schedule to arrive late 24 early 25th east of the MS. Models struggling with whether it merges with a S/W from the south. That's brings the cooler air for Jan 26-29 and then of course the S/W for the 30th on the GFS that supplies the reinforcement of colder air for my Jan 31-Feb 2 time frame (this one looks like a decent shot...as I stated a couple weeks ago) and then a 5-10 degree warm up for Feb 3-4 (pre-frontal warmth) ahead of the next RWT (over India) expected to arrive Feb 4/5. (BTW I was able to narrow down the warm spike with the latest GWO numbers and RWT timing.)  Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7 (decent shot of cold here to).

 

Then Feb 7-8 will be another 5-10 degree pre-frontal warm up ahead of another RWT (currently over Africa) and cooler air moving in behind it for Feb 9-11. 

 

So here are the dates I have for cold and warm periods...I just color codes them. LOL. Aqua-cooler Blue-colder Orange-warmer +5-10F Red-Torch +10-15F

 

 Jan 26-29 Jan 31-Feb 2 Feb 3-4 Feb 5-7 Feb 7-8 Feb 9-11

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TUweathermanDD

TUweathermanDD

Posted
Posted

Last night's 0z ECMENS at 114 had more of an open wave with precip at that point below .05 not making it north of the NC/VA border and at 120/126 it barely gets it there, no measurable except for a random area of .05 in DC/BAL over to about OKV and to the eastern shore. 

 

Today's ensemble at 12z 102hr has a 1008mb low (which there wasn't much in the way of a surface reflection on 0z) with .05 up to DC almost so probably about .03. At 108 the .1 line gets up to DC, with .05 extending to about MDT in PA over to s of PIT. That frame has a sub 1004 low just NE touching HAT. At 114, it moves the storm east, but still gets .05 to DC and BWI. Then, probably for the slower ENS members, brings precip back west, so .05 gets back west of OKV again, with .07/.08 for DC/BWI's area (hr 120). Finally at 126, another .05 for BWI as the 998 moves NE past NYC. 

 

850 temps (102) 

DC: -2

BWI: -3

 

Line just S of RIC over to ROA, -4 around Shippensburg, PA to MDT. 

 

108 is similar as the line axiates more SW to NE as the trough tilts with the low moving NE. Same goes for 114, -4 creeping over to HGR, -2 to -3 DCA/BWI. 

 

120 is -3 at DC, -4 in BWI, 0c down into NC. Finally, 126 -4 to -4.5 at both DC/BWI. 

 

As for surface temps. 102 is toasting at like 43 for DC, though compensated most likely by the slower members that bring the cold air in later with a slower storm. 108 is cooler 35 BWI, 36ish DC. 114 32 degree line now se of HGR, 33ish at DC/BWI. Finally at 120, 29 at HGR, 32 DC, 31ish at BWI.

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Wonderdog

Wonderdog

Posted
Posted

Last night's 0z ECMENS at 114 had more of an open wave with precip at that point below .05 not making it north of the NC/VA border and at 120/126 it barely gets it there, no measurable except for a random area of .05 in DC/BAL over to about OKV and to the eastern shore. 

 

Today's ensemble at 12z 102hr has a 1008mb low (which there wasn't much in the way of a surface reflection on 0z) with .05 up to DC almost so probably about .03. At 108 the .1 line gets up to DC, with .05 extending to about MDT in PA over to s of PIT. That frame has a sub 1004 low just NE touching HAT. At 114, it moves the storm east, but still gets .05 to DC and BWI. Then, probably for the slower ENS members, brings precip back west, so .05 gets back west of OKV again, with .07/.08 for DC/BWI's area (hr 120). Finally at 126, another .05 for BWI as the 998 moves NE past NYC. 

So is that .27 for DC?

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

Last night's 0z ECMENS at 114 had more of an open wave with precip at that point below .05 not making it north of the NC/VA border and at 120/126 it barely gets it there, no measurable except for a random area of .05 in DC/BAL over to about OKV and to the eastern shore.

Today's ensemble at 12z 102hr has a 1008mb low (which there wasn't much in the way of a surface reflection on 0z) with .05 up to DC almost so probably about .03. At 108 the .1 line gets up to DC, with .05 extending to about MDT in PA over to s of PIT. That frame has a sub 1004 low just NE touching HAT. At 114, it moves the storm east, but still gets .05 to DC and BWI. Then, probably for the slower ENS members, brings precip back west, so .05 gets back west of OKV again, with .07/.08 for DC/BWI's area (hr 120). Finally at 126, another .05 for BWI as the 998 moves NE past NYC.

850 temps (102)

DC: -2

BWI: -3

Line just S of RIC over to ROA, -4 around Shippensburg, PA to MDT.

108 is similar as the line axiates more SW to NE as the trough tilts with the low moving NE. Same goes for 114, -4 creeping over to HGR, -2 to -3 DCA/BWI.

120 is -3 at DC, -4 in BWI, 0c down into NC. Finally, 126 -4 to -4.5 at both DC/BWI.

As for surface temps. 102 is toasting at like 43 for DC, though compensated most likely by the slower members that bring the cold air in later with a slower storm. 108 is cooler 35 BWI, 36ish DC. 114 32 degree line now se of HGR, 33ish at DC/BWI. Finally at 120, 29 at HGR, 32 DC, 31ish at BWI.

Well, good, bad, or other, you're the first person I ever remember putting OKV in a meaningful post. That at least counts for something.

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BaltimoreWxGuy

BaltimoreWxGuy

Posted
Posted

Last night's 0z ECMENS at 114 had more of an open wave with precip at that point below .05 not making it north of the NC/VA border and at 120/126 it barely gets it there, no measurable except for a random area of .05 in DC/BAL over to about OKV and to the eastern shore. 

 

Today's ensemble at 12z 102hr has a 1008mb low (which there wasn't much in the way of a surface reflection on 0z) with .05 up to DC almost so probably about .03. At 108 the .1 line gets up to DC, with .05 extending to about MDT in PA over to s of PIT. That frame has a sub 1004 low just NE touching HAT. At 114, it moves the storm east, but still gets .05 to DC and BWI. Then, probably for the slower ENS members, brings precip back west, so .05 gets back west of OKV again, with .07/.08 for DC/BWI's area (hr 120). Finally at 126, another .05 for BWI as the 998 moves NE past NYC. 

 

850 temps (102) 

DC: -2

BWI: -3

 

Line just S of RIC over to ROA, -4 around Shippensburg, PA to MDT. 

 

108 is similar as the line axiates more SW to NE as the trough tilts with the low moving NE. Same goes for 114, -4 creeping over to HGR, -2 to -3 DCA/BWI. 

 

120 is -3 at DC, -4 in BWI, 0c down into NC. Finally, 126 -4 to -4.5 at both DC/BWI. 

 

As for surface temps. 102 is toasting at like 43 for DC, though compensated most likely by the slower members that bring the cold air in later with a slower storm. 108 is cooler 35 BWI, 36ish DC. 114 32 degree line now se of HGR, 33ish at DC/BWI. Finally at 120, 29 at HGR, 32 DC, 31ish at BWI.

Thanks..I guess its a bit better than the OP but it stil sounds kinda bleh...Time for improvments however but if the GFS backs off of its more amped solution tonight then Id be concerned

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BaltimoreWxGuy

BaltimoreWxGuy

Posted
Posted

In other news, it looks like the NAM could end up being half way decent but its the NAM. Regardless of the storm track it would be nice to see more of an arctic airmass coming in but that doesnt look to be the case..I suppose we could thread the needle, but DC-Balt usually ends up getting screwed

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BaltimoreWxGuy

BaltimoreWxGuy

Posted
Posted

As I stated its the NAM...Its nice to look at and I suppose we can comment on it to a degree, but its pretty useless past 48 hr

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

I don't think the later panels @ 500 mean anything to be honest. Evolution first 48 is similar. If there is any notable difference that is a takeaway positive it's the lp over hudson bay. It stays further north and allows less influence on the evolution of the system as a whole. Hence, colder temps. But it's the nam so bag of salt to go with it. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

I don't think the later panels @ 500 mean anything to be honest. Evolution first 48 is similar. If there is any notable difference that is a takeaway positive it's the lp over hudson bay. It stays further north and allows less influence on the evolution of the system as a whole. Hence, colder temps. But it's the nam so bag of salt to go with it. 

the one thing that keeps suckering me back into this pattern is that although none of the models really nail us today, every one of them keeps the ducks on the pond, at least, with a few even better

if we had a couple that were well to our west or south then I'd say the he!! with it

but we don't, so I can't look forward to sleep any time the next 3 nights    :axe:

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TUweathermanDD

TUweathermanDD

Posted
Posted

the one thing that keeps suckering me back into this pattern is that although none of the models really nail us today, every one of them keeps the ducks on the pond, at least, with a few even better

if we had a couple that were well to our west or south then I'd say the he!! with it

but we don't, so I can't look forward to sleep any time the next 3 nights    :axe:

For good reason, a storm is coming I believe. Bob too, and let's not forget Randy. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

the one thing that keeps suckering me back into this pattern is that although none of the models really nail us today, every one of them keeps the ducks on the pond, at least, with a few even better

if we had a couple that were well to our west or south then I'd say the he!! with it

but we don't, so I can't look forward to sleep any time the next 3 nights    :axe:

 

They are all close to breaking the streak. So yes, worth doing our thing for that reason alone. 

 

It's the best vort track of the season and it pulls from the gulf. Those 2 reasons alone make it "investable" but it is fraught with risk so the investment should be modest for most. I went ahead and threw the title to my neighbors house in the pot with everything else. They've always annoyed me a little so it seemed like another good bet. 

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TUweathermanDD

TUweathermanDD

Posted
Posted

They are all close to breaking the streak. So yes, worth doing our thing for that reason alone. 

 

It's the best vort track of the season and it pulls from the gulf. Those 2 reasons alone make it "investable" but it is fraught with risk so the investment should be modest for most. I went ahead and threw the title to my neighbors house in the pot with everything else. They've always annoyed me a little so it seemed like another good bet. 

Oh geez, the stakes are way up there, and I haven't forgot that you'll never post here again bet you made first. 

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