mitchnick Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Ji is really getting to you, it's time to step away from the boards and get some fresh air. Soon your wife will be like Ji's wife and move out every winter. lawyers' wives aren't so quick to move out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 it's almost FEB and the most I've had imby is 1.2" at first, these little events were good enough while I waited for something decent but I'm at a point in the season where these kind of events just don't excite me anymore, that's all I'm getting the feeling that unless we get a late season fluke (ala 3/1/09) we will be shutout this year and I'm tired of it already yes, I'm mentally getting ready for spring I guess, especially after yesterday Welcome to the dark (and real) side. I'm all for optimism (fake and otherwise), but let's not kid ourselves. Anybody that keeps saying they are happy and excited with a 1 or 2 inch clipper likely isn't telling the truth. Yeah, at first, it was great. But a car topper isn't going to cut it. We're at 3rd and long here. February is approaching...first half is probably f**ked. That leaves us 2 weeks and then March. We're all worried, no matter what anybody posts here. I'm vested here...I don't care who gets pissed...I'm keepin it real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Welcome to the dark (and real) side. I'm all for optimism (fake and otherwise), but let's not kid ourselves. Anybody that keeps saying they are happy and excited with a 1 or 2 inch clipper likely isn't telling the truth. Yeah, at first, it was great. But a car topper isn't going to cut it. We're at 3rd and long here. February is approaching...first half is probably f**ked. That leaves us 2 weeks and then March. We're all worried, no matter what anybody posts here. I'm vested here...I don't care who gets pissed...I'm keepin it real. Agreed. These piddly events are ok in Dec through mid-Jan, but they are not going to work in Feb. Unless it happens overnight, weak precip rates can't overcome the sun-angle unless the air is really cold, and that kind of air was hard enough to come by for 3 days in January. I watched this happen Saturday as I saw 6+ hours of snow melt while the temp was 28 - 31 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I know we have squally weather on the way and everyone is staring at a medium range filled with clippers; but, you can see the increase in the southern stream's influence starting next week on the data. While this isn't an overly cold pattern, the possibility is heightened for a front to stall in the Mid Atlantic as the STJ overrides the boundary, bringing waves of low pressure and precip. Temperatures will not look overly impressive and may not be sufficient for wintry weather until close range. The risk is highest between Feb 8-15. The bombing clippers will help keep some confluence in southern Canada and bring periodic -NAO_east responses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Welcome to the dark (and real) side. I'm all for optimism (fake and otherwise), but let's not kid ourselves. Anybody that keeps saying they are happy and excited with a 1 or 2 inch clipper likely isn't telling the truth. Yeah, at first, it was great. But a car topper isn't going to cut it. We're at 3rd and long here. February is approaching...first half is probably f**ked. That leaves us 2 weeks and then March. We're all worried, no matter what anybody posts here. I'm vested here...I don't care who gets pissed...I'm keepin it real. When you and Mitch start complaining like the weenies you know we are in real trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 There are chances on the NAM. Call it what you will, but there's opportunity there. Our luck with model trends can't stay bad forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The "miracle clipper" looks pretty lame on the 12Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The "miracle clipper" looks pretty lame on the 12Z NAM. It's evolving. I actually thought it looked pretty good heading into the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It's evolving. I actually thought it looked pretty good heading into the end of the run. there have been a lot of NAM runs "at the end" this year that have not looked bad, but they have all generally failed to produce the magnitude that they showed which, by the way, is a hallmark for lousy winters (consistently great endings to model runs with nothing of substance come verification time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 gfs still likes some mood flakes for most. Well, except for a few folks. Sorry winwxluvr. Leesburg is safe for now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 gfs still likes some mood flakes for most. Well, except for a few folks. Sorry winwxluvr. Leesburg is safe for now.... sorrywinwxluvr.JPG lol AP chicanery now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 gfs still likes some mood flakes for most. Well, except for a few folks. Sorry winwxluvr. Leesburg is safe for now.... sorrywinwxluvr.JPG By tomorrow morning, the models will have aligned properly. I like the trends. I may be sending you a map or two before its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 wow..wow..GFS no precip through 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 wow..wow..GFS no precip through 192 if the CFS2 was going to be right, it was going to be wrt precip it's done unfortunately well in that regard for JAN and its FEB forecast is no better in the meantime, enjoy the first "spring-like" cold front of the upcoming season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 if the CFS2 was going to be right, it was going to be wrt precip it's done unfortunately well in that regard for JAN and its FEB forecast is no better in the meantime, enjoy the first "spring-like" cold front of the upcoming season here is some precip http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht&cycle=12&fhr=240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 winters over. Thanks HM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 winters over. Thanks HM lol It was a nice 5 day season though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 wow..wow..GFS no precip through 192 Is that bad? Do we need precip for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 it is an awful run, but it is just a run....the bright side is we have <6 weeks to suffer if nothing materializes and then we can forget about this winter....though you can always muster something in the 3/16-4/7 period ji is not getting april snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 looks good at 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Just a heads up: The precip amounts with the clipper may seem meager but check your ratios. I was modeled to have QPF that low too last week and ended up with nearly 2 inches. Many people in our area saw ratios exceeding 20:1 or so. Now, obviously this isn't the same kind of cold but it is important to check soundings and see how cold it is in the mid levels / is there any frontogensis. There is nothing wrong with the GFS. Plenty of southern stream action and storminess with a revolving polar vortex in Canada. It will loop around through mid Feb at least, dropping south toward Hudson/Quebec and then rising north with NW Atlantic systems. When the PV comes down to its further south points will be when we see our snow chances (the first loop down is all clipper action obviously. the second loop down comes toward 2/10). Inland runners are obviously going to happen with a pattern like this but so will stalled boundaries to our south with waves of low pressure. It's not a bad as it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 we have a good run here and there but there hasnt been 2 back to back good runs on the GFS in the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 April snow is good Denver...not so much in leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 sarcasm is off the charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 That feb 5th died very quickly. Of course euro was right ...Gfs was wrong because euro showed no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 it is an awful run, but it is just a run....the bright side is we have <6 weeks to suffer if nothing materializes and then we can forget about this winter....though you can always muster something in the 3/16-4/7 period I've completely stopped getting hooked into the lr this year. I'm sure you have too. One easy takeaway from this year is no stj + neutral nao = almost no lr skill. December was different because of the -pna and crap epo. That was stable. Nothing else has been. Like HM just said, at least every decent inland storm comes a period of cold. It doesn't takes miracles to get the air in place. It just won't stick around long enough without some sort of stable feature to keep it here. I will laugh when the nao pegs neg in April and we sit in days and days of 50 degree drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If a sloppy wet snowstorm was being modeled ~ 2/10 after a couple of crappy clippers and inland runners, there would still be complaints about the lack of NAO and how this winter has gone. I told the MA to punt when we should earlier in the winter but I can't say to punt yet with this period coming up. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong but I really do think there is something to this period coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 looks good at 384 We will always have the GFS @384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If a sloppy wet snowstorm was being modeled ~ 2/10 after a couple of crappy clippers and inland runners, there would still be complaints about the lack of NAO and how this winter has gone. I told the MA to punt when we should earlier in the winter but I can't say to punt yet with this period coming up. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong but I really do think there is something to this period coming up. HM I also like the 2/25-3/7 period. You looked into that at all? I did well with my 1/25-1/30 prediction back on the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 let's face....this feels good http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LWX/RWRLWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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