TJ2 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Forget about it. Larry Cosgrove just cancelled winter on the east coast. He sure did. Says over for entire southern and eastern quadrants with maybe arctic intrusion here and there.,Said move to Chicago or Minneapolis if want true winter. Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 He sure did. Says over for entire southern and eastern quadrants with maybe arctic intrusion here and there.,Said move to Chicago or Minneapolis if want true winter. Ouch Chicago had had less snow than dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Chicago had had less snow than dc LC ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 lol, 6z GFS says 0z was just kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 lol, 6z GFS says 0z was just kidding But the 6z nam gives you and me an inch of snow Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 300+ hr GFS commentary = pointless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 But the 6z nam gives you and me an inch of snow Friday night. starts Friday morning actually and, even if correct, it's a yawner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 starts Friday morning actually and, even if correct, it's a yawner Not if you believe the snow maps. Depending upon which ones you use, it would be close to DC's biggest snow so far. Having said that, I don't know that I believe anything it shows. I do, however, disagree with you about it being a yawner. Partly cloudy is a yawner. Any chance of snow must be taken as an opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 starts Friday morning actually and, even if correct, it's a yawner Why do you make me do things like this, mitch? .....yawner? Hires nam is picking up on a DEATH BAND Bullseye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Why do you make me do things like this, mitch? .....yawner? Hires nam is picking up on a DEATH BAND hiresnam1.JPG Bullseye! namprecip1.JPG it's almost FEB and the most I've had imby is 1.2" at first, these little events were good enough while I waited for something decent but I'm at a point in the season where these kind of events just don't excite me anymore, that's all I'm getting the feeling that unless we get a late season fluke (ala 3/1/09) we will be shutout this year and I'm tired of it already yes, I'm mentally getting ready for spring I guess, especially after yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 it's almost FEB and the most I've had imby is 1.2" at first, these little events were good enough while I waited for something decent but I'm at a point in the season where these kind of events just don't excite me anymore, that's all I'm getting the feeling that unless we get a late season fluke (ala 3/1/09) we will be shutout this year and I'm tired of it already yes, I'm mentally getting ready for spring I guess, especially after yesterday Ji is really getting to you, it's time to step away from the boards and get some fresh air. Soon your wife will be like Ji's wife and move out every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 it's almost FEB and the most I've had imby is 1.2" at first, these little events were good enough while I waited for something decent but I'm at a point in the season where these kind of events just don't excite me anymore, that's all I'm getting the feeling that unless we get a late season fluke (ala 3/1/09) we will be shutout this year and I'm tired of it already yes, I'm mentally getting ready for spring I guess, especially after yesterday I don't even know you anymore. We're through. It's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 it's almost FEB and the most I've had imby is 1.2" at first, these little events were good enough while I waited for something decent but I'm at a point in the season where these kind of events just don't excite me anymore, that's all I'm getting the feeling that unless we get a late season fluke (ala 3/1/09) we will be shutout this year and I'm tired of it already yes, I'm mentally getting ready for spring I guess, especially after yesterday I hear ya, but for me it seems to be the opposite. I feel like getting something sig. or even decent is getting borderline impossible right now, so I'll take as many of the crap systems as possible in hopes that one of them can overperform like12/05/07 or 1/04/03. Since the October fluke last year I bet we have had almost 15 consecutive events that has not surpassed 3 inches. in northern md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 For those who believe in such things, the latest SREFS look better for the area Thurs night/Fri morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I don't even know you anymore. We're through. It's over. it's worse I was even biatching to myself this morning that while BWI was in the 40s, IAD was at 63 but she's warming up nicely now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Ji is really getting to you, it's time to step away from the boards and get some fresh air. Soon your wife will be like Ji's wife and move out every winter. lawyers' wives aren't so quick to move out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 it's almost FEB and the most I've had imby is 1.2" at first, these little events were good enough while I waited for something decent but I'm at a point in the season where these kind of events just don't excite me anymore, that's all I'm getting the feeling that unless we get a late season fluke (ala 3/1/09) we will be shutout this year and I'm tired of it already yes, I'm mentally getting ready for spring I guess, especially after yesterday Welcome to the dark (and real) side. I'm all for optimism (fake and otherwise), but let's not kid ourselves. Anybody that keeps saying they are happy and excited with a 1 or 2 inch clipper likely isn't telling the truth. Yeah, at first, it was great. But a car topper isn't going to cut it. We're at 3rd and long here. February is approaching...first half is probably f**ked. That leaves us 2 weeks and then March. We're all worried, no matter what anybody posts here. I'm vested here...I don't care who gets pissed...I'm keepin it real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Welcome to the dark (and real) side. I'm all for optimism (fake and otherwise), but let's not kid ourselves. Anybody that keeps saying they are happy and excited with a 1 or 2 inch clipper likely isn't telling the truth. Yeah, at first, it was great. But a car topper isn't going to cut it. We're at 3rd and long here. February is approaching...first half is probably f**ked. That leaves us 2 weeks and then March. We're all worried, no matter what anybody posts here. I'm vested here...I don't care who gets pissed...I'm keepin it real. A 1-2" clipper and a car topper aren't the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Welcome to the dark (and real) side. I'm all for optimism (fake and otherwise), but let's not kid ourselves. Anybody that keeps saying they are happy and excited with a 1 or 2 inch clipper likely isn't telling the truth. Yeah, at first, it was great. But a car topper isn't going to cut it. We're at 3rd and long here. February is approaching...first half is probably f**ked. That leaves us 2 weeks and then March. We're all worried, no matter what anybody posts here. I'm vested here...I don't care who gets pissed...I'm keepin it real. Agreed. These piddly events are ok in Dec through mid-Jan, but they are not going to work in Feb. Unless it happens overnight, weak precip rates can't overcome the sun-angle unless the air is really cold, and that kind of air was hard enough to come by for 3 days in January. I watched this happen Saturday as I saw 6+ hours of snow melt while the temp was 28 - 31 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I know we have squally weather on the way and everyone is staring at a medium range filled with clippers; but, you can see the increase in the southern stream's influence starting next week on the data. While this isn't an overly cold pattern, the possibility is heightened for a front to stall in the Mid Atlantic as the STJ overrides the boundary, bringing waves of low pressure and precip. Temperatures will not look overly impressive and may not be sufficient for wintry weather until close range. The risk is highest between Feb 8-15. The bombing clippers will help keep some confluence in southern Canada and bring periodic -NAO_east responses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Welcome to the dark (and real) side. I'm all for optimism (fake and otherwise), but let's not kid ourselves. Anybody that keeps saying they are happy and excited with a 1 or 2 inch clipper likely isn't telling the truth. Yeah, at first, it was great. But a car topper isn't going to cut it. We're at 3rd and long here. February is approaching...first half is probably f**ked. That leaves us 2 weeks and then March. We're all worried, no matter what anybody posts here. I'm vested here...I don't care who gets pissed...I'm keepin it real. When you and Mitch start complaining like the weenies you know we are in real trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 There are chances on the NAM. Call it what you will, but there's opportunity there. Our luck with model trends can't stay bad forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The "miracle clipper" looks pretty lame on the 12Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The "miracle clipper" looks pretty lame on the 12Z NAM. It's evolving. I actually thought it looked pretty good heading into the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It's evolving. I actually thought it looked pretty good heading into the end of the run. there have been a lot of NAM runs "at the end" this year that have not looked bad, but they have all generally failed to produce the magnitude that they showed which, by the way, is a hallmark for lousy winters (consistently great endings to model runs with nothing of substance come verification time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 gfs still likes some mood flakes for most. Well, except for a few folks. Sorry winwxluvr. Leesburg is safe for now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 gfs still likes some mood flakes for most. Well, except for a few folks. Sorry winwxluvr. Leesburg is safe for now.... sorrywinwxluvr.JPG lol AP chicanery now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 gfs still likes some mood flakes for most. Well, except for a few folks. Sorry winwxluvr. Leesburg is safe for now.... sorrywinwxluvr.JPG By tomorrow morning, the models will have aligned properly. I like the trends. I may be sending you a map or two before its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 wow..wow..GFS no precip through 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 wow..wow..GFS no precip through 192 if the CFS2 was going to be right, it was going to be wrt precip it's done unfortunately well in that regard for JAN and its FEB forecast is no better in the meantime, enjoy the first "spring-like" cold front of the upcoming season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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