TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 vday threat isn't really a phase it's just a vort passage no? Sorry Ian, im thinking some interaction. Its not really a phase e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The GFS solution is not that different from what it's had the last 4 runs. It's not great for us, but it's not that different in the nuts and bolts. GEFS mean has a very good look at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 vday threat isn't really a phase it's just a vort passage no? Yes, that's true for the VD storm I believe...unless TUweathermanDD was referring to the PD storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Wouldn't pay much attention to what the GFS shows at this juncture. While the Euro was locked onto this historic blizzard, it had a low sliding off the SE coast 3 days before the mighty Nemo struck. Euro may not have what everyone is hoping for either for next week, but good or bad its way more likely to be closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The GFS solution is not that different from what it's had the last 4 runs. It's not great for us, but it's not that different in the nuts and bolts. GEFS mean has a very good look at this range. Looks good AF, I like that a whole lot sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The GFS solution is not that different from what it's had the last 4 runs. It's not great for us, but it's not that different in the nuts and bolts. GEFS mean has a very good look at this range. map prior has the same issues as the op tho.. those 12 hr mean maps are misleading. the accum snow is still north of the area except for nw sections like hgr thru the blue ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Model mood mania in full swing. Gfs has had the same idea for 4+ runs and counting. Only 14+ more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Looks good AF, I like that a whole lot sir. meh, I'll bet that Great Lakes low becomes a bigger problem as we near I can't say enough how much I hate our fooking winters late falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 map prior has the same issues as the op tho.. those 12 hr mean maps are misleading. the accum snow is still north of the area except for nw sections like hgr thru the blue ridge Yeah, don't like seeing that low over Lake Michigan either. Looks Miller B-ish almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 map prior has the same issues as the op tho.. those 12 hr mean maps are misleading. the accum snow is still north of the area except for nw sections like hgr thru the blue ridge Thanks Deb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Model mood mania in full swing. Gfs has had the same idea for 4+ runs and counting. Only 14+ more to go. How many runs in a row did NEMO not exist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 How many runs in a row did NEMO not exist? Nemo is orange. I'm eating apples now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 meh, I'll bet that Great Lakes low becomes a bigger problem as we near I can't say enough how much I hate our fooking winters late falls think it's already part of the problem. it wasn't as strong on prior runs and seemingly doesn't let the vort amplify as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Yeah, don't like seeing that low over Lake Michigan either. Looks Miller B-ish almost. Yet last night there was no Lakes low, IIRC. Not a huge surprise that it's there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 map prior has the same issues as the op tho.. those 12 hr mean maps are misleading. the accum snow is still north of the area except for nw sections like hgr thru the blue ridge 850 0C is along I-95 at 108 on the mean. The mean can always be biased, and I agree the 12hr maps can be misleading, but I don't think much precip falls prior to 0z on Thursday, so it's probably not much rain if any for DC/Balt and points N and W. We'll see what the individual members hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Looks Miller B-ish almost. No, not at all. The northern stream is an issue for keeping the flow more progressive and kicking the V-day low off the SE coast. It's not a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 8/12 of the GEFS members develop a respectable low. At this juncture, I will we take it. As mentioned above, the mean looks good overall. We should concentrate on getting the euro on board with a non-suppressed solution before we start nitpicking a 4.5 day event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 850 0C is along I-95 at 108 on the mean. The mean can always be biased, and I agree the 12hr maps can be misleading, but I don't think much precip falls prior to 0z on Thursday, so it's probably not much rain if any for DC/Balt and points N and W. We'll see what the individual members hold. dont think 850 is where the snow is ... perhaps falling but the BL looks mild. i have 6 hr and sfc panels.. 32 never gets out of the NW and 850s mainly crash as the precip ends. looks very similar to the op overall.. which isn't horrible but we need to thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 No, not at all. The northern stream is an issue for keeping the flow more progressive and kicking the V-day low off the SE coast. It's not a Miller B. Thats it, thats the potential kicker. I'm less worried about what the 12z GFS did compared to an OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I think we'll need something akin to the Jan 2011 storm.. a highly dynamic system with thumping as it passes. Not sure there is that much middle ground for snow.. don't know if this can be a 1-3"er. In DC at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 8/12 of the GEFS members develop a respectable low. At this juncture, I will we take it. As mentioned above, the mean looks good overall. We should concentrate on getting the euro on board with a non-suppressed solution before we start nitpicking a 4.5 day event. Only 1 of the members is suppressed/OTS. More are somewhat inland rain-to-snow events like the Op than previous editions. dont think 850 is where the snow is ... perhaps falling but the BL looks mild. i have 6 hr and sfc panels.. 32 never gets out of the NW and 850s mainly crash as the precip ends. looks very similar to the op overall.. which isn't horrible but we need to thread the needle. Ok...Raleigh's page doesn't have the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I think we'll need something akin to the Jan 2011 storm.. a highly dynamic system with thumping as it passes. Not sure there is that much middle ground for snow.. don't know if this can be a 1-3"er. In DC at least. This has some similarity, it could be rain to a heavy thump if it hits us and a nice h85 track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 It would be nice to see some indication of a high to present itself. Even if it's a weak one that is still good enough for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Only 1 of the members is suppressed/OTS. More are somewhat inland rain-to-snow events like the Op than previous editions. Ok...Raleigh's page doesn't have the surface. Guessing the likelihood for the ots is down despite my worries and the euro being south. It likes to hold back energy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I think we'll need something akin to the Jan 2011 storm.. a highly dynamic system with thumping as it passes. Not sure there is that much middle ground for snow.. don't know if this can be a 1-3"er. Yea, some of the early runs had a big ball in tx. The best of the later runs were pretty energetic with the vort too. This thing is gonna be moving across the south pretty quickly. We need it as sharp as it can get. Today has not gone in that direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Yea, some of the early runs had a big ball in tx. The best of the later runs were pretty energetic with the vort too. This thing is gonna be moving across the south pretty quickly. We need it as sharp as it can get. Today has not gone in that directionWatch it bob nows not the time.Name that movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 GGEM is suppressed FWIW. Precip up into central VA, but that's it. Pretty good vort track, just can't make the turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Only 1 of the members is suppressed/OTS. More are somewhat inland rain-to-snow events like the Op than previous editions. Indeed. I can't count apparently. Must be the snow deprivation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 GGEM is suppressed FWIW. Precip up into central VA, but that's it. Pretty good vort track, just can't make the turn. Its my worry, but I like its vort track, and at this juncture, its just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 GGEM is suppressed FWIW. Precip up into central VA, but that's it. Pretty good vort track, just can't make the turn. Not too concerning yet, but we do need another positive push from the Euro. After all were only 4 days out which still gives us some time to work with time as long as the better models don't take a step back going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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