TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 For DCA: GFS starts around 39 degrees at the beginning of the precip, where nearly .1 falls. However, temps drop to sub 34 during the time of the thump, totaling .37 from 18z wed to 0z thu. Cooling would help if we get good rates, 850's sub -2.5 the whole duration of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 After the ne storm...it's hard to get excited about this quick moving event. I want last night 00z run it's a tough crowd nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I could get excited about the dgex 102 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Looks like this one may be another Blue Ridge special. Not saying that b/c it is my back yard, but soundings verbatim aren't bad West of a CHO - Warrenton - OKV line. As I said before, that 850 can not pass over/north of us like it did on 12z. I really hope we can all cash in on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 For DCA: GFS starts around 39 degrees at the beginning of the precip, where nearly .1 falls. However, temps drop to sub 34 during the time of the thump, totaling .37 from 18z wed to 0z thu. Cooling would help if we get good rates, 850's sub -2.5 the whole duration of the precip. Not even a warning event. Punt that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 yesterday's run was better. thx deb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Ji After the ne storm...it's hard to get excited about this quick moving event. I want last night 00z run _____________________ LOL! (null) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Looks like this one may be another Blue Ridge special. Not saying that b/c it is my back yard, but soundings verbatim aren't bad West of a CHO - Warrenton - OKV line. As I said before, that 850 can not pass over/north of us like it did on 12z. I really hope we can all cash in on this one! 18z was definitely better wrt the vort and features than 12z, also a bit cooler. I think we could cash on this one, I am optimistic the s/w will be amped as the gfs has it, and to be honest, the DGEX solution (which is obviously way overdone we can say with decent confidence) in a condensed version (i.e. the low track, vort pass) is not all that erroneous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 thx deb sorry. i've locked it in. mass accumulation for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 sorry. i've locked it in. mass accumulation for all. you're talking about the state aren't you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Good late night tv of our vort coming down behind the bowling ball. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Not even a warning event. Punt that I'm about to punt you through the window of your house to the speed limit sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 you're talking about the state aren't youNot sure what you meanThe vort pass is good still at least. Now we need more cold air and more dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 there are a lot of things going against us Negatives: - The pattern is good...not great - Poor air mass - no high pressure to the north or northwest - persistence - hard to get big storm in otherwise crappy, torchy winters unless a fluke(12/73, 2/95(but nino), 3/99, 3/09 (but cold winter), 2/06( but decent cold DEC) - climo in torch, bad enso winters STRONGLY suggests modest events only for the coastal plain - hard for DC to get snow in general - Nina is a deathknell Positives: -February may be undergoing a slight ENSO lag bounce from Fall nino-ish conditions - We have a faux southern stream, though probably a bit too weak, not unlike some weak ENSO years - EPO has made colder air more accessible - the pattern isnt hostile to a modest event - We are due? - if 40N, then why not us? (1969, one of my analogs popping up, but we had to wait until March) - the PAC is way better in general than we have seen in a while - 6"+ events for DC and immediate burbs happen about 50% of winters - AGW is causing bigger events I think with any discrete event in the upcoming 10-14 days, until we are <48 hours it is foolhardy to hope for a 6"+ event given the above factors other than for morale and fun...If we are sincerely thinking any of these events has a better than 50-50 chances of materializing into a 5-8"+ event, then there isn't really much that separates us from the random ignorant public I like this post. Some should read it a couple of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Not sure what you mean The vort pass is good still at least. Now we need more cold air and more dynamics Just being a smartass.... mass = MA....as in boston etc... I know..pretty lame. You know this stuff better than me so I definitely know you are interested. May not be anything major but we both like these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Just being a smartass.... mass = MA....as in boston etc... I know..pretty lame. You know this stuff better than me so I definitely know you are interested. May not be anything major but we both like these setups. Ahh yeahIll take that vort path and hope for sure. Would prob favor NW tho the Euro needs to come aboard more. Could still be a fringer.. I won't hate on the GFS but I'm not going to buy it wholeheartedly either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 if memory serves, the DGEX for us looks like what it showed for NE in today's storm in a similar time frame, so that's encouraging <hoping it remains good with this pattern> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Ahh yeah Ill take that vort path and hope for sure. Would prob favor NW tho the Euro needs to come aboard more. Could still be a fringer.. I won't hate on the GFS but I'm not going to buy it wholeheartedly either. Wes is passed out after seeing the DGEX, secretly predicts it to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 if memory serves, the DGEX for us looks like what it showed for NE in today's storm in a similar time frame, so that's encouraging <hoping it remains good with this pattern> Should read DT update from earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I like this post. Some should read it a couple of times. "AGW" causing bigger events...what's AGW?? I'm assuming the G W stands for global warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 "AGW" causing bigger events...what's AGW?? I'm assuming the G W stands for global warming accelerated global warming if im right? wait anthropogenic IIRC. I'm pretty sure its anthropogenic, I've done some looking into GW so I should know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 i didnt wait 2 years for a 2-3 inch event. its insulting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 i didnt wait 2 years for a 2-3 inch event. its insulting So is you punting a potential streak breaker in a wretched extended period of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 i didnt wait 2 years for a 2-3 inch event. its insulting You've already had 2-3's this year man. Sheesh...family sized bag of wtf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 You've already had 2-3's this year man. Sheesh...family sized bag of wtf... the gfs took us from 8-12 to 2-3 in a matter of one day and everyone is giddy. Dont get it. We deserve more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 thanks...being bullish about big snow events here is pretty unrewarding and futile....i think verbatim GFS would drop 2-3" in dc proper....just need a nice thump and temp will drop to 33-34 Watching all the news footage out of NE is tough but if someone said that I could have a 3" snow this week or chance it for door #1 or 2 with the idea that one choice is better than 3" and the other is worse, I take the 3". It's only weather but wanting more than what the pattern is able to give is psychologically risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On the VD storm, I liked the 12z GFS a little better because the L off Hatteras was hugging the coast. Thus, the 18z GFS edged closer to the EURO. I think this run is colder only because the L is further off Hatteras. We need a stronger L off Hatteras to pull in the cold air AND close enough to the coast so the precip doesn't slide off the coast. Thus thread the needle a bit. The current GFS has a tight gradient on the back-end so if it does slide a little to the east, the DC area (points west) get nothing. Overall, I still like the set-up, and will stick with my 2-4 inches starting as rain and changing over to snow in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 i didnt wait 2 years for a 2-3 inch event. its insulting Right now a 2-3" is a PD3. This is how all our storms go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 the gfs took us from 8-12 to 2-3 in a matter of one day and everyone is giddy. Dont get it. We deserve more You will take your 3" and like it my friend. I get my 40th dusting of the year. 2013 is rockin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 0z will be rockin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.