TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Agree about timing if the model is correct, but even at that precip looks to be falling by daybreak as there is measurable precip showing by 15z. That would limit some of the daytime heating I'd think. This was one of the thoughts I had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 below 400' snow really has to rip in the afternoon to stick well in mid February....it can be 32-34, but it has to rip 1/2 viz or less.....it is still better than 2 weeks later...but 2/14 is the beginning of the time when sun angle is a serious b-itch Timing is up in the air. Vort was a little faster out of the sw. Maybe we get lucky with an early push of clouds and light precip near dawn ...just bein a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Nice swath of the n side of the low. Overall a great run. I can't believe how narrow the envelope has been for the gfs for like 4-6 runs now. 18zprecip.JPG Verbatim that's all rain for most of VA. DC and Balt never even get down to freezing at the surface till all the precip has moved through. Gotta find some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Timing is up in the air. Vort was a little faster out of the sw. Maybe we get lucky with an early push of clouds and light precip near dawn ...just bein a weenie We need to make sure it doesn't get too fast on us thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Timing is up in the air. Vort was a little faster out of the sw. Maybe we get lucky with an early push of clouds and light precip near dawn ...just bein a weenie Well this run shows exactly that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Verbatim that's all rain for most of VA. DC and Balt never even get down to freezing at the surface till all the precip has moved through. Gotta find some cold air. It doesn't have to be below freezing for snow. Look at some on the obs from last night in the ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 really?...you looked at soundings? I was mostly looking at the surface maps and by most of VA I mean anyone along a latitude slightly north of C-ville. Not the DCA area. DCA/BAL probably see snow on this run but you have to admit the surface temps are marginal at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 It doesn't have to be below freezing for snow. Look at some on the obs from last night in the ne.That was more dynamically driven and there was a more powerful set of features to allow temps to crash.However, youre right it doesnt have to be 32 or lower to pound. We'd definitely drop quick though with some evap precip comes down pretty heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 It doesn't have to be below freezing for snow. Look at some on the obs from last night in the ne. I understand that. But you can't be overly optimistic when the surface temps are hovering around 5C for Central VA. It might snow but the ratios would be rather low. Same sort of thing happened to us during the Jan 2011 storm if I recall correctly (although that may have mostly been due to a poor track for our area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 PD3 doesnt look too bad You beat me to it and it's colder though I don't think you can rule out the earlier storm as it has a great track. Boundary layer temps for it are are tricky but that can wait until later and soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I was mostly looking at the surface maps and by most of VA I mean anyone along a latitude slightly north of C-ville. Not the DCA area. DCA/BAL probably see snow on this run but you have to admit the surface temps are marginal at best. It's snow for most if not all of metro during the best rates. 850's are definitely snow. 540 thickness contour is a good one to use without a sounding and it shows the same: How well it sticks is a different story. Plus, gfs @ 100 hours with close call on temps in not a good tool. That 850 and 500 track scream snow. There's no low nearby to the nw to screw it all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Both storms look good for MD/DC this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 It's snow for most if not all of metro during the best rates. 850's are definitely snow. 540 thickness contour is a good one to use without a sounding and it shows the same: How well it sticks is a different story. Plus, gfs @ 100 hours with close call on temps in not a good tool. That 850 and 500 track scream snow. There's no low nearby to the nw to screw it all up. True true. Again, mostly thinking of MBY and areas within a certain latitude radius. It's hard not to be a little pessimistic when you're right up against the mountains! Although the heaviest precip does actually come over our area, so if there's any hope for the surface down south this run has the best look so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Best -nao look of the year showing too. Still east based but nIce closed 546dm ridge pusing into greenland pre-pdiii and it hangs around for a while too. Would like to see it assert itself more west but hard to complain about the best blocking since early dec (when it didn't even mean anything). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 True true. Again, mostly thinking of MBY and areas within a certain latitude radius. It's hard not to be a little pessimistic when you're right up against the mountains! Although the heaviest precip does actually come over our area, so if there's any hope for the surface down south this run has the best look so far. Ah, I didn't see your location when I responded. I thought you were va burbs of dv. Yea, lyh is a different story. Still a good track for you if it digs and cranks. I'm pullin for ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Seems the GFS always has the 500 vort work it's way slowly north from this point in time with most storms. I wouldn't be surprised if this slowly moves north some from the position being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 PD3 doesnt look too bad I thought so too. Modeled as is, it would be a cold snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I thought so too. Modeled as is, it would be a cold snow. Usually with a trough like that youd expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Seems the GFS always has the 500 vort work it's way slowly north from this point in time with most storms. I wouldn't be surprised if this slowly moves north some from the position being shown. Unless the gfs is totally screwing up the low over the maritimes I don't think it's a worry. Pretty good compressed flow. I think the goalposts are pretty well set and too far n/w is looks a lot less likely than a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Unless the gfs is totally screwing up the low over the maritimes I don't think it's a worry. Pretty good compressed flow. I think the goalposts are pretty well set and too far n/w is looks a lot less likely than a couple days ago. No, I wasn't talking about a move like that. Right now it's got it in the upstate area of SC. I'd be talking about a move to about tha nc/va border. Of course the trend has been to move it a bit south with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 No, I wasn't talking about a move like that. Right now it's got it in the upstate area of SC. I'd be talking about a move to about tha nc/va border. Of course the trend has been to move it a bit south with each run. I was about to say, what he said was probably not what you mean't. You think if it moves just a bit north, it'll be in the optimal area for DC to get the best rates and qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 No, I wasn't talking about a move like that. Right now it's got it in the upstate area of SC. I'd be talking about a move to about tha nc/va border. Of course the trend has been to move it a bit south with each run. misread your post. You were thinking of it as a good way vs bad. It's going to be a nail biter no matter what. But they all are and many are wall pounders as well. lol I'd take the current track with a more amped up vort. Get a really nice deform on the nw side going but not turn the corner and scare us with rain and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 misread your post. You were thinking of it as a good way vs bad. It's going to be a nail biter no matter what. But they all are and many are wall pounders as well. lol I'd take the current track with a more amped up vort. Get a really nice deform on the nw side going but not turn the corner and scare us with rain and sleet. In that regard, I think were in a good spot. I'll take my chances, and if we can get just a bit stronger system, the vort is nice, we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Well, to be honest guys I hadn't considered the implications of the vortex pass not being as far south as modeled. I was just commenting on the pattern I've noticed with the American models gradually brining these a bit north with each run as we get closer to an event. Of course this could be a completely different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Well, to be honest guys I hadn't considered the implications of the vortex pass not being as far south as modeled. I was just commenting on the pattern I've noticed with the American models gradually brining these a bit north with each run as we get closer to an event. Of course this could be a completely different animal. We could sit here and discuss the storm for a few hours to pass the time before 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 hour 102 doesnt look too bad..the thump probably happens between 98-101....i think even the city gets a nice thump Just make sure stoopid dca measures properly. The streak has to go man. It has everybody thinking worst case all the time. Nobody believes it can even snow here anymore. I mostly stay objective but man, it's a tough crowd nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Just make sure stoopid dca measures properly. The streak has to go man. It has everybody thinking worst case all the time. Nobody believes it can even snow here anymore. I mostly stay objective but man, it's a tough crowd nowadays. Sent you a message, but compiling some data for exact temps and qpf from the GFS this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 After the ne storm...it's hard to get excited about this quick moving event. I want last night 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 After the ne storm...it's hard to get excited about this quick moving event. I want last night 00z run It could curl up for us if the vort can dig a bit more and be more intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 yesterday's run was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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