bjohnson102184 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The GFS handled the last storm so poorly it wasnt funny.......but yet we still look for it to be right I guess weird how that works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 no one should have expected last night's run to verify.. consider us lucky to get a 2-4"er I think even that might be stretching our luck. For whatever reason things just don't want to line up for just a normal snowfall. And that keeps us looking for big ones to get us out of the hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 BCrRNOwCQAAJ7G3.png large.png Dc beats bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 BCrRNOwCQAAJ7G3.png large.png I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I think even that might be stretching our luck. For whatever reason things just don't want to line up for just a normal snowfall. And that keeps us looking for big ones to get us out of the hole. Boston was at 10" now they are at 34 or so for the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The GFS handled the last storm so poorly it wasnt funny.......but yet we still look for it to be right I guess weird how that works And see, that statement alone is an example of the double negative we are facing. The GFS looks better than everything else this time. How much confidence does that inspire? The GFS has been pretty good most of the time however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The GFS has a problem with phasing I think. It seems to do "worst" on storms like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Boston was at 10" now they are at 34 or so for the winter Ok, so let's get a 24 and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Hope we can turn it around with the EURO... looks like a bad 12z suite so far for us wanting to break the 2" record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The GFS has a problem with phasing I think. It seems to do "worst" on storms like that. Isn't its bias under phasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The GFS has a problem with phasing I think. It seems to do "worst" on storms like that. Wrt that, the nam phased the streams and the gfs didn't. That obviously has some bearing on the return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The GFS has a problem handling the SS energy.....notice its showing bombs again pretty much at the end of every run again.......it didnt do that until we got SS influence IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Ok, so let's get a 24 and call it a day. Deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Wrt that, the nam phased the streams and the gfs didn't. That obviously has some bearing on the return I would rather take the GFS at 120 then the NAM at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Hope we can turn it around with the EURO... looks like a bad 12z suite so far for us wanting to break the 2" record Have you checked any other models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 And see, that statement alone is an example of the double negative we are facing. The GFS looks better than everything else this time. How much confidence does that inspire? The GFS has been pretty good most of the time however. We had SS energy all winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Have you checked any other models? Nope, just saying that for the hell of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 From HPC....WITH THE GULF TO ATLC SFC LOW DURING THE WED-THU TIME FRAME...RECENT ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUGGEST A LOW TRACK BETWEEN RECENT GFS AND MORE OFFSHORE ECMWF RUNS WITH THE LEADING EAST COAST LOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. GFS RUNS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE FULL GUIDANCE SPREAD THOUGH NOT TO THE POINT OF BEING OUTLIERS RELATIVE TO INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FLOW CONTAINING THE SUPPORTING ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... AND POSITIVE TILT OF THE ESTABLISHED LARGE SCALE MEAN PATTERN...SEEM TO FAVOR AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION. So maybe we can find a good solution in the middle of Euro and GFS...too early to punt but it would be easy to this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Isn't its bias under phasing? i think so.. at least to a degree. It was a similar problem with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Hope we can turn it around with the EURO... looks like a bad 12z suite so far for us wanting to break the 2" record The setup at 384-h looks kinda interesting though..hahaha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I would rather take the GFS at 120 then the NAM at 84 So true. If we need the 84 NAM to maintain a positive attitude, we'd better find something else to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Definitely ok with the solution, it has the storm and we're not in the Bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I wonder how many more times somebody will make a post with the word "punt" in it this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I wonder how many more times somebody will make a post with the word "punt" in it this season Winner receives the Ray Guy award. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On the VD storm, I actually like the 12z GFS solution (better formation) and 12z NAM (colder). On the GFS, we need a little stronger development on the L off Hatteras to pull the cold air south into the DC area more quickly. The placement of the L is still good and does not look like it is going out to sea. I am sticking with my prediction of widespread 2-4 for the DC area (starts as rain Wed and changes to snow late afternoon Wed). On the PD storm, the GFS was a mess. But I think the trough ran too deep into FL - not gonna happen. Still hope, but less promising than earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On the PD storm, the GFS was a mess. But I think the trough ran too deep into FL - not gonna happen. Still hope, but less promising than earlier. It's shown some wacky solutions for that potential PD storm. The other day it had an elongated closed low at 500 mb running from about North Dakota to the mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 One storm at a time please, I can't handle this much potential and excitement On the VD storm, I actually like the 12z GFS solution (better formation) and 12z NAM (colder). On the GFS, we need a little stronger development on the L off Hatteras to pull the cold air south into the DC area more quickly. The placement of the L is still good and does not look like it is going out to sea. I am sticking with my prediction of widespread 2-4 for the DC area (starts as rain Wed and changes to snow late afternoon Wed). On the PD storm, the GFS was a mess. But I think the trough ran too deep into FL - not gonna happen. Still hope, but less promising than earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Temps worry me, need that low to get going. Bob isn't worried about rain though even though we know he is. He's so all in he needs this one to keep living.Lol- temps are a legit worry. One of the probs I already said was no good hp but I'm also not worried at this point. I will be if it keeps trending warm thru Monday.I do believe there will be enough juice. Gulf is open. I don't mind being nw of dca either. The 2" streak applies to my yard too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Im still optimistic, the euro has been south, think the gfs might be tracking the low too fast to the north and east and not phasing enough. This set up is nothing like the hecs thats winding down, but the gfs missed the phase more and took it too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Im still optimistic, the euro has been south, think the gfs might be tracking the low too fast to the north and east and not phasing enough. This set up is nothing like the hecs thats winding down, but the gfs missed the phase more and took it too far east. vday threat isn't really a phase it's just a vort passage no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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