Quasievil Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 and rightfully so, around here it is rarely easy. This is close enough to watch but not yet worth getting excited about unless the Euro comes north and keeps us cold. The lack of a high is a problem. I think we need the deformation zone. How does that PD storm look Wes? Any reason to get excited at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 haven't looked at QPF, how much on this run? On my phone. .6ish probably... and i would guess that close to 2/3 is rain at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Temps worry me, need that low to get going. Bob isn't worried about rain though even though we know he is. He's so all in he needs this one to keep living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 no PD storm this run...Trough is too deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The superens D+11 and D+8 analogs have been averaging 2 to 3 events if you center them 3 days either side of the centered mean even with the negative NAO. That suggests that it never is easy unless you get a 2009-2010 pattern. The Post says we didnt even get much snow in 09-10 http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/wimpy-winters/2013/02/08/e2d813c0-7256-11e2-8b8d-e0b59a1b8e2a_graphic.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The Post says we didnt even get much snow in 09-10 http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/wimpy-winters/2013/02/08/e2d813c0-7256-11e2-8b8d-e0b59a1b8e2a_graphic.html I think Ji might have hacked that article! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Ah yes, another one of those car toppers Friday night.... even though it shows .1+ QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Temps worry me, need that low to get going. Bob isn't worried about rain though even though we know he is. He's so all in he needs this one to keep living. So you're punting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 As usual, we're going to need the EURO to lead the way. GFS is not up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 So you're punting? No im still in. No punting off one run, there will be a storm, as for ptype thats up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Ah yes, another one of those car toppers Friday night.... even though it shows .1+ QPF Actaually could be a 1-2 incher... but that will disappear next run. Looks cold enough and its at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 No im still in. No punting off one run, there will be a storm, as for ptype thats up in the air. Trend for toasty temps started last night....I think it's clear where this is headed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 GFS is really fast with the PDIII setup this run and probably won't do it...not allowing time for the additional energy to dump in....it will show a Miller B SNE special.. It gained about 2 days worth of speed on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Don't look at the GFS snow map unless you live in S Pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 As usual, we're going to need the EURO to lead the way. GFS is not up to it. So the Euro can now create snow storms? My, but that is one impressive computer model. Maybe the GFS is leading the way and you just don't like where it's going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 As usual, we're going to need the EURO to lead the way. GFS is not up to it. It just doesn't want to snow around here so regardless of the model solution the final seems easy to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Don't look at the GFS snow map unless you live in S Pa Yea I know, I don't like warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Western Oklahoma gets smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 How does that PD storm look Wes? Any reason to get excited at all? It's too early to punt but it would be a weird pattern for us to get a big snow from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 It's too early to punt but it would be a weird pattern for us to get a big snow from. But Wes, Ji has already given it a 100% guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Yea I know, I don't like warmth. Punt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 But Wes, Ji has already given it a 100% guarantee. And therein lies the problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 So the Euro can now create snow storms? My, but that is one impressive computer model. Maybe the GFS is leading the way and you just don't like where it's going? Maybe it is. And if it is, I'm sure the EURO will show that today. EURO didn't show what the GFS did yesterday. And you're right, no model can create a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 no one should have expected last night's run to verify.. consider us lucky to get a 2-4"er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 It's too early to punt but it would be a weird pattern for us to get a big snow from. I was afraid you'd say that. Until we see evidence of a true MA pattern change, it's best to be cautious....very cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 But Wes, Ji has already given it a 100% guarantee. Optimism only works in Tolland...I swear Kevin's constant positive weenie attitude has jackpot him in every storm...he is close to 80" up there in this god awful winter and will be over 100" by the weekend....book it. Ji's optimism is forced...plus it's DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Punt? No lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 no one should have expected last night's run to verify.. consider us lucky to get a 2-4"er Right now a 2-4 would be a virtual HECS type scenario around here. I'm begging for 2-4 and yes, that's what she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 GFS just doesn't consolidate the energy at the base of the trof. So no storm of the century this run. It's still trying to figure out what to do with all the vorts in that huge trof. Clearly that's why it's having all sorts of trouble placing the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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