aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 6z gfs hold serve with same idea but a little close on thermals. Qpf down to .25-.50 with jackpot ne md. Still a good vort and 850 track. One negative is lp over hudson bay. Prob part of the reason it's a bit warmer, further n, and not as much precip. Zero worries attm because those details get figured out later. Gfs is stuck on the same idea. This is good. So now a lp showing up over gl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Yea, nice box of chocolates on vday and ski vacation on pd3. 6z has a more believable setup for pd3. At least in my opinion. 996 over Ric to 988 over the cape. Huge precip shield. Not perfect for us yet but 500 looks awesome for a big storm. Looks like a long duration event. Overrunning in front for a while and then the low is cranking. Fun week for sure. Interesting some of the key differences at 500's between the 00Z and the 06Z for Ji's storm that change the evolution of it. My biggest concern about it is the fact that the GFS and the Euro have been modeling for the trough to drop into the deep south which puts it in a prime position to run it up the coast but the question is will that verify. If not and we start seeing the models drawing back on the trough somewhat I think we may be looking at a major storm running up to our west giving us wet instead of white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Much stronger signal on the VD storm on the 06Z ensemble mean from the 00Z. They are going away from the suppressed look and bringing a major low just off the VA, North Carolina coast and would suggest a major snow storm for much of the Mid Atlantic. As far as Ji's megastorm the strong signal that the 00Z had has been lost and suggest that the members are all over the place with different solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 New to the boards. Been over on CWG ...but mostly a lurker until the models suggest something really big. Originally from New England (Buffalo, Syracuse, and CT) ...so my motto is go big or go home. But have been in the DC area since '92 ...so familiar with weather patterns / set-up, etc. The VD storm seems to be holding ...but my sense is the warm weather ahead of it will limit anything big. If the L continues to move up towards Norfolk (biggest concern at this point), then we are looking at starting Wed with rain and changing to snow later in the day. Perhaps 2-4 inches depending on how quickly the cold air filters in. But obviously the reason I am posting, is what appears on the horizon next weekend. And beyond. The weather pattern looks very good for some big snowstorms. The set-up for next weekend looks promising, so it will be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 So now a lp showing up over gl? Not really. Much further north. There is no classic hp so that shouldn't be overlooked. I don't think it's that big of a deal. It's not a setup that would pull warmth or the track to the north. Where the heck is Wes?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I'm starting to get excited about the VDay threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I'm more encouraged by the opinions of some of our more knowledgable posters than I am by anything I'm seeing on the models. Our guys seem to like the setup, but the models aren't there yet. I'm gonna remain hopeful, but with a big dose of caution. The fact that the Euro isn't exactly on board combined with so many slider solutions showing up in other models and ens members gives me pause on this. Time will tell. It would be so nice to have things swing our way just for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Much stronger signal on the VD storm on the 06Z ensemble mean from the 00Z. They are going away from the suppressed look and bringing a major low just off the VA, North Carolina coast and would suggest a major snow storm for much of the Mid Atlantic. As far as Ji's megastorm the strong signal that the 00Z had has been lost and suggest that the members are all over the place with different solutions. The 6z mean is better, but the members aren't. There are more sliders starting to show up. But those solutions can swing pretty good, just like the op. I guess it's just on to the next few model cycles and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The trend is headed in the right direction for at least the best measurable snow we've seen this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The trend is headed in the right direction for at least the best measurable snow we've seen this season I hope you guys are right. It would really be nice to be the ones celebrating for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The 6z mean is better, but the members aren't. There are more sliders starting to show up. But those solutions can swing pretty good, just like the op. I guess it's just on to the next few model cycles and see what happens. How do you figure that? Only 2 members don't get precip up to us. Better than 0z which had 3-4 with no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The 6z mean is better, but the members aren't. There are more sliders starting to show up. But those solutions can swing pretty good, just like the op. I guess it's just on to the next few model cycles and see what happens. Remember the last slider? Not a perfect comparison but it was the compressed ul flow to the n that acted like a brick wall on models for days. But the storm ended up much further n. Even the last couple days jogged it almost to our doorstep. Not apple's to apple's here because the vort and 850 evolution is a good bit different but it's the same compressed flow causing the slider solutions. I could be wrong I don't see a slider as the likely outcome here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I've thought this one looked like a good shot of breaking the streak early on too. This is a good setup for a modest snow. Yea, the gfs spitting out 6-10 is pretty and all but my bar is set at breaking the streak. Widespread 2-4 would be awesome. More than that is bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 How do you figure that? Only 2 members don't get precip up to us. Better than 0z which had 3-4 with no precip. You know, you're probably right on that. I looked at the 6z members and then forgot that I hadnt looked at the 0z members. I suppose the truth is that most still look good, but those sliders have me nervous, combined with some of the other models. In the end, what I think has no bearing on what ends up happening, therefore, has little to no relevance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Nam looks like gfs in general at 5h through the run. Euro is the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Monday sure got wet looking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Monday sure got wet looking.... No kiddin. Solid half inch of rain almost everywhere. Winwxlvr will be happy that we are getting precip. NE looks to get a .25-.5 on top of their 40 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Nam looks like gfs in general at 5h through the run. Euro is the outlier. Looks to be even a bit deeper than gfs at same time frame. I suppose that would make the slider less likely. IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 No kiddin. Solid half inch of rain almost everywhere. Winwxlvr will be happy that we are getting precip. NE looks to get a .25-.5 on top of their 40 feet of snow. Yeah, I guess it's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Nam looks like gfs in general at 5h through the run. Euro is the outlier. Total weenie move and a no no....but since YOU brought it up (), 84 hour NAM actually looks BETTER than the 96 hour 0z GFS. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Looks to be even a bit deeper than gfs at same time frame. I suppose that would make the slider less likely. IDK It does. Looks just fine through 48-60. Not sure it matters what is shows after that. Nam is weird past a couple days. I was looking for the kicker that tombo was talking about last night. Didn't see anything that is going to throw a monkey in the wrenchworks. Euro will be on board in a couple hours. It was closer last night and we're getting close to go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Total weenie move and a no no....but since YOU brought it up ( ), 84 hour NAM actually looks BETTER than the 96 hour 0z GFS. Just saying. Bob's eternal optimism is rubbing off on you. It's a sickness but I thought the same thing about the NAm for what the 84hr NAM is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The second storm is the one to lay your bets on...Fast flow could kick the first one off to the fishes south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Man I haven't seen the board so happy and giddy since I joined almost a year ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Feb 13 storm is one of the easier forecasts around here, maybe since Feb 2010. The main piece of energy in question is well represented on all of the models in the southwest and is within 24-48 hours range...so thats a near certainty it's going be there and ejecting out early in the week. Note on the NAM the s/w digging into the Dakotas and through the Midwest between 60-72. This will slow the ejection of the main energy slightly and cause ridging out infront of it (you can see that on all of the models out by 84-96 hours, and the GFS/NAM illustrate that interaction pretty well)...and that interaction/ridging will cause the surface low to ride north out of the Gulf coast. How strong that s/w will be in the northern plains dictates how strong the low is and how far up the coast it rides. Given model trends this year and past history, strength of northern steam s/ws are not well represented until within the day 3-4 range and are usually stronger than originally shown on guidance past day 4. Case in point, the blizzard ongoing today. I have high confidence of snow here on Wednesday. There's not too many other possibilities with this storm other than the northern s/w is weak and we get a fringe 1-2 or it is strong and we get a sizable snow event when the low rides the coast and winds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Bob's eternal optimism is rubbing off on you. It's a sickness but I thought the same thing about the NAm for what the 84hr NAM is worth. hey man! we've been worried about you. I was mainly referring to the first 48 hours so I didn't go full on weenie. I'm saving that up for the 12z globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Glad this is an easy one. Even without the Euro. Special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Glad this is an easy one. Even without the Euro. Special. With no high to the north, it is never easy as there are likely to be boundary layer issues to deal with unless we get firmly in the deformation zone and have high precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Glad this is an easy one. Even without the Euro. Special. LOL. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Even without a strong HP to the north, there will be some sort of in-situ wedge down the apps. I guess my perspective is slightly skewed since I live west of town by about 40 miles. BL could certainly be an issue...especially closer to I-95 and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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