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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Fozz

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It is now stuck in between the idea of progressive and out to sea and holding some energy back and amplifying...verbatim the run sucks....but I dont mind it at all

Good enuf. Gfs has zoned in for a couple days. I personally thinking the gfs is as good as the euro. Just at different things.

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from tombo

 

The euro took baby steps towards the gfs by digging the northern stream in better, but end result is still a skirt off nc coast. Need that northern stream to dig more. Doesn't help their is a kicker on its heels thats going to limit the amplitude of the ridge out west.

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6z gfs hold serve with same idea but a little close on thermals. Qpf down to .25-.50 with jackpot ne md.

Still a good vort and 850 track. One negative is lp over hudson bay. Prob part of the reason it's a bit warmer, further n, and not as much precip.

Zero worries attm because those details get figured out later. Gfs is stuck on the same idea. This is good.

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6z gfs hold serve with same idea but a little close on thermals. Qpf down to .25-.50 with jackpot ne md.

Still a good vort and 850 track. One negative is lp over hudson bay. Prob part of the reason it's a bit warmer, further n, and not as much precip.

Zero worries attm because those details get figured out later. Gfs is stuck on the same idea. This is good.

Looking over the 00Z GFS ensemble mean and it's members as well as the Euro I have to wonder if our major concern will be suppression with the VD storm. Though there are several members that show a very nice hit for the region the majority still show this sliding underneath us and out to sea. I do like the very strong signal the mean is showing for Ji's Megastorm though. :)

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Looking over the 00Z GFS ensemble mean and it's members as well as the Euro I have to wonder if our major concern will be suppression with the VD storm. Though there are several members that show a very nice hit for the region the majority still show this sliding underneath us and out to sea. I do like the very strong signal the mean is showing for Ji's Megastorm though. :)

 

Yea, nice box of chocolates on vday and ski vacation on pd3.

 

6z has a more believable setup for pd3. At least in my opinion. 996 over Ric to 988 over the cape. Huge precip shield. Not perfect for us yet but 500 looks awesome for a big storm. Looks like a long duration event. Overrunning in front for a while and then the low is cranking. Fun week for sure. 

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