clueless Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I would be surprised if the GFS doesn't bust. If if Euro has been "off" you would expect to see some convergence and we get our usual.01. ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 On a positive note...Euro has not been the best model this winter...who would like to venture a guess as to the best verification model so far this horrific winter? wrong as usual. Thanks to am19psu for posting these in the philly thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I find it both funny and slightly sad that the UKMET is doing better at 500mb than the GFS. wrong as usual. Thanks to am19psu for posting these in the philly thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Always go with the least snowy model And then lower your expectations by 75%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 wrong as usual. Thanks to am19psu for posting these in the philly thread Seems to me the euro is king at 850 but not necessarily at 500....unless I'm reading that wrong....plus the last week or so the GFS looks better than the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 3 years ago it was 50 degrees colder and snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 3 years ago it was 50 degrees colder and snowingOh wait, that's tomorrow. Troll cancel. Actually, I'll probably use it again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 JMA has the storm. Euro is only model thats clueless lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 JMA has the storm. Euro is only model thats clueless lol JMA is a nice solution...but going to be hard to get something to come up the coast without a cutoff and/or block...the ridge is too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 You could just copy and paste this. You always think we're toast. Yeah, but how are his verification scores? You know, that's lame too. I could say every morning that it's not going to snow, and I'd be right about 98% of the time. Or more. I will be excited when I think there is a valid reason to be. I admit I am pessimistic more often then not when it comes to getting significant snow, but honestly for every storm that hits our area there will be 10 misses. I can not stand the JB's of the world that hype up every possible threat and then just move on when nothing happens. Its either a lack of knowledge or dishonest. I was getting the same complaints back in January 2010 when I was not excited about any of those clipper chances and even though we had just had a KU event in December people were starting to get down again on that winter as wasting potential. I remember from about 2 weeks out starting to get excited about the early February period when verbatim the GFS has a rainstorm for DC. Same in January 2011. People were mad at me because I kept saying these vorts were too far north and moving too fast to give us good snow, and they kept missing us and I was not excited with any of our threats. Then I saw something that seemed to have a good shot so I said I was excited about the chance. I have also been wrong, I really liked a setup in early March 2010 and I thought the early January setup this year had at least a chance, and both of those fell apart. Even as pessimistic as I am, the truth is I am still way more often wrong by overforecasting snow threats then under. That should perhaps tell you something about how craptastic this area can be for long stretches when it comes to getting snowstorms. I LOVE snow, and trust me when there is the right setup and we actually have a real chance, and not just a total shot in the dark wing and a prayer, I will be excited and say so...this year its just been all wrong for us to get snow, and I dont like to sugar coat it. Finally, so its not all doom and gloom, I like some of what I am seeing in the long range GFS ensembles after Feb 10th. It looks like we moderate but then the trough looks to get back into the east, but with some hint that there will be a southern branch this time, and the trough axis may be further west this time to allow something to happen. Its way way out there, and its just a hint, but I am not ready to write off the Feb 10-20th period yet. We still have that last window. It would help if the MJO can progress into phases 2-3 and not enter the COD. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I will be excited when I think there is a valid reason to be. I admit I am pessimistic more often then not when it comes to getting significant snow, but honestly for every storm that hits our area there will be 10 misses. I can not stand the JB's of the world that hype up every possible threat and then just move on when nothing happens. Its either a lack of knowledge or dishonest. I was getting the same complaints back in January 2010 when I was not excited about any of those clipper chances and even though we had just had a KU event in December people were starting to get down again on that winter as wasting potential. I remember from about 2 weeks out starting to get excited about the early February period when verbatim the GFS has a rainstorm for DC. Same in January 2011. People were mad at me because I kept saying these vorts were too far north and moving too fast to give us good snow, and they kept missing us and I was not excited with any of our threats. Then I saw something that seemed to have a good shot so I said I was excited about the chance. I have also been wrong, I really liked a setup in early March 2010 and I thought the early January setup this year had at least a chance, and both of those fell apart. Even as pessimistic as I am, the truth is I am still way more often wrong by overforecasting snow threats then under. That should perhaps tell you something about how craptastic this area can be for long stretches when it comes to getting snowstorms. I LOVE snow, and trust me when there is the right setup and we actually have a real chance, and not just a total shot in the dark wing and a prayer, I will be excited and say so...this year its just been all wrong for us to get snow, and I dont like to sugar coat it. Finally, so its not all doom and gloom, I like some of what I am seeing in the long range GFS ensembles after Feb 10th. It looks like we moderate but then the trough looks to get back into the east, but with some hint that there will be a southern branch this time, and the trough axis may be further west this time to allow something to happen. Its way way out there, and its just a hint, but I am not ready to write off the Feb 10-20th period yet. We still have that last window. It would help if the MJO can progress into phases 2-3 and not enter the COD. We will see. except we got a good event on 1/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I will be excited when I think there is a valid reason to be. I admit I am pessimistic more often then not when it comes to getting significant snow, but honestly for every storm that hits our area there will be 10 misses. I can not stand the JB's of the world that hype up every possible threat and then just move on when nothing happens. Its either a lack of knowledge or dishonest. I think there's an apple to oranges thing going on though. You only get excited when the stars align. So that pretty much eliminates your excitement about 90% of our average winter (100% for 2 years running). So it's a given that you will post a down view on everything until milk and honey goodness is locked in. Most of us don't operate that way. I just like tracking winter weather in general. 2" would be thrilling. 4" and I fall out of my seat. I think I speak for the majority here. 2-4" is a wonderful and magical thing. Something that may cause the mentally unstable to run naked through the neighborhood. And most important of all, we're trying to have some fun in the face of adversity. I know that if some 2-3" slopfest to rain event is coming right at us that you will be unhappy. We all do. We don't need to be reminded that our pattern sucks every few days. We already know it sucks. Lemons and lemonade is the theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I will be excited when I think there is a valid reason to be. I admit I am pessimistic more often then not when it comes to getting significant snow, but honestly for every storm that hits our area there will be 10 misses. I can not stand the JB's of the world that hype up every possible threat and then just move on when nothing happens. Its either a lack of knowledge or dishonest. I was getting the same complaints back in January 2010 when I was not excited about any of those clipper chances and even though we had just had a KU event in December people were starting to get down again on that winter as wasting potential. I remember from about 2 weeks out starting to get excited about the early February period when verbatim the GFS has a rainstorm for DC. Same in January 2011. People were mad at me because I kept saying these vorts were too far north and moving too fast to give us good snow, and they kept missing us and I was not excited with any of our threats. Then I saw something that seemed to have a good shot so I said I was excited about the chance. I have also been wrong, I really liked a setup in early March 2010 and I thought the early January setup this year had at least a chance, and both of those fell apart. Even as pessimistic as I am, the truth is I am still way more often wrong by overforecasting snow threats then under. That should perhaps tell you something about how craptastic this area can be for long stretches when it comes to getting snowstorms. I LOVE snow, and trust me when there is the right setup and we actually have a real chance, and not just a total shot in the dark wing and a prayer, I will be excited and say so...this year its just been all wrong for us to get snow, and I dont like to sugar coat it. Finally, so its not all doom and gloom, I like some of what I am seeing in the long range GFS ensembles after Feb 10th. It looks like we moderate but then the trough looks to get back into the east, but with some hint that there will be a southern branch this time, and the trough axis may be further west this time to allow something to happen. Its way way out there, and its just a hint, but I am not ready to write off the Feb 10-20th period yet. We still have that last window. It would help if the MJO can progress into phases 2-3 and not enter the COD. We will see. Well, I'm with you on the trough aspect. It would surely be nice to see it further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 next week's clipper/Miller B has a pretty potent vort- would like to get it as far south of us as possible (there won't be a bitterly cold air mass surpressing it totally like last week) That vort may slow down and start to tilt negative with time, on guidance, and could then tap some southern stream juice.. In that case, we'd want it far enough south then that we won't have p-type issues and would have a somewhat decent event around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It's not snowing this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It's not snowing this year It already has... Don't give up yet. I am willing to bet a lot we see flakes fly at least once more this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Decent vort pass on the 00z NAM...too bad it's still bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 No comments on 00z Gfs. Best run of season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 No comments on 00z Gfs. Best run of season Way out in la la land beyond 300 hrs yes it looks like it would be lots of fun... too bad its la la land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If -nao can develop...active pattern can do some damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Way out in la la land beyond 300 hrs yes it looks like it would be lots of fun... too bad its la la landat least we have pretend snowstorms to fawn over for a few hours at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If -nao can develop...active pattern can do some damageyou are bipolar no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 at least we have pretend snowstorms to fawn over for a few hours at least Having a pretend snowstorm is a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Forget about it. Larry Cosgrove just cancelled winter on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 you are bipolar no? I'm as bipolar as the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Forget about it. Larry Cosgrove just cancelled winter on the east coast. Considering he is the worst long range forecaster on the planet..that's a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Forget about it. Larry Cosgrove just cancelled winter on the east coast.hmm, that changes things .. gfs might be on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 GFS shows an STJ in the long range and a nice PNA ridge. No real NAO. Bad winters still have most of the good ingredients, just out of sync. Looks like a snowy period for SNE though unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Don Sutherland has been dreadful too this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Considering he is the worst long range forecaster on the planet..that's a good thing LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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