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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Fozz

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my recollection is fine about the storm itself.. im sure you have better recollection of the days after (i checked DCA cover so it didn't disappear instantly)... but i was out in the storm quite a bit and temps were not cold. i know you have your snow narrative.. i'm not saying it was a bad storm, but it was mostly remembered because it crippled rush hour. put it in any other time slot and it's not the gigantic impact storm locally.

Kind of interesting to set aside variables in the post analysis. There were fairly intense rates that overwhelmed road crews, and would have done the same whatever time of day.

Like saying 12/19/09 wasnt a big deal if you take away the 18 inches that fell at IAD.

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Kind of interesting to set aside variables in the post analysis. There were fairly intense rates that overwhelmed road crews, and would have done the same whatever time of day. Like saying 12/19/09 wasnt a big deal if you take away the 18 inches that fell at IAD.

 

not sure why my opinion on a snowstorm is such a problem. i said it was a big storm..

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yeah...the timing was huge....I still dont think it was overrated, but I cant disagree with the bolded...people trapped for 10 hours on the highways made it more memorable, but I think timing of a storm is a huge component anyway....

Yeah, I remember they sent gov't employees home after 3PM (?) or something like that.  2 hour early release I believe.  Same for various other businesses and the like.  And that's right when it started getting bad.  There was a lot of criticism for not closing earlier, when it was quite apparent what was coming by late morning if not earlier than that.  They sent everyone home at noon on Feb. 5, 2010, got everyone off the roads before that started getting bad.  But for whatever reason, the Jan. 2011 event they waited until it was really too late.  I think part of that was due to Sterling keeping advisories over much of the area, and only went to a warning in the early afternoon or there about.

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we dont always which is what makes snow great...people like completely different aspects....though we both like sick rates...1/26 had insane rates for a period...though 1/30 did have several hours of +SN IIRC

i loved 1/26 when it was going on. i'd take it in a second again. i just didn't find it among the more enjoyable personally. i remember being totally soaked walking from WaPo to the white house.. jumping into gigantic puddles. it snowed great once i was back home. when i went out afterwards everything was drippy and falling off the trees, with rivers running in the streets. my interest in snow greatly diminishes after it's on the ground for a bit so i don't remember the details of that period as well generally. 

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It is now stuck in between the idea of progressive and out to sea and holding some energy back and amplifying...verbatim the run sucks....but I dont mind it at all

Good enuf. Gfs has zoned in for a couple days. I personally thinking the gfs is as good as the euro. Just at different things.

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from tombo

 

The euro took baby steps towards the gfs by digging the northern stream in better, but end result is still a skirt off nc coast. Need that northern stream to dig more. Doesn't help their is a kicker on its heels thats going to limit the amplitude of the ridge out west.

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6z gfs hold serve with same idea but a little close on thermals. Qpf down to .25-.50 with jackpot ne md.

Still a good vort and 850 track. One negative is lp over hudson bay. Prob part of the reason it's a bit warmer, further n, and not as much precip.

Zero worries attm because those details get figured out later. Gfs is stuck on the same idea. This is good.

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6z gfs hold serve with same idea but a little close on thermals. Qpf down to .25-.50 with jackpot ne md.

Still a good vort and 850 track. One negative is lp over hudson bay. Prob part of the reason it's a bit warmer, further n, and not as much precip.

Zero worries attm because those details get figured out later. Gfs is stuck on the same idea. This is good.

Looking over the 00Z GFS ensemble mean and it's members as well as the Euro I have to wonder if our major concern will be suppression with the VD storm. Though there are several members that show a very nice hit for the region the majority still show this sliding underneath us and out to sea. I do like the very strong signal the mean is showing for Ji's Megastorm though. :)

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Looking over the 00Z GFS ensemble mean and it's members as well as the Euro I have to wonder if our major concern will be suppression with the VD storm. Though there are several members that show a very nice hit for the region the majority still show this sliding underneath us and out to sea. I do like the very strong signal the mean is showing for Ji's Megastorm though. :)

 

Yea, nice box of chocolates on vday and ski vacation on pd3.

 

6z has a more believable setup for pd3. At least in my opinion. 996 over Ric to 988 over the cape. Huge precip shield. Not perfect for us yet but 500 looks awesome for a big storm. Looks like a long duration event. Overrunning in front for a while and then the low is cranking. Fun week for sure. 

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6z gfs hold serve with same idea but a little close on thermals. Qpf down to .25-.50 with jackpot ne md.

Still a good vort and 850 track. One negative is lp over hudson bay. Prob part of the reason it's a bit warmer, further n, and not as much precip.

Zero worries attm because those details get figured out later. Gfs is stuck on the same idea. This is good.

So now a lp showing up over gl?

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