Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yeah..I'd even take it as is....worst case we can drive 45 minutes and get a foot We get a pretty good thump it seems. Now to get the Euro on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i havent felt so good about as storm(PD3)...since the blizzard of 96. This is 100% chance a huge storm imo Orko Cinco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 PD3 is just strange looking and then truncation makes it weirder..is it normal to get a 980mb low over center city Philadelphia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 PD3 is just strange looking and then truncation makes it weirder..is it normal to get a 980mb low over center city Philadelphia? Close enough at this range Matt, gfs has been doing weird things with it, but theres definitely going to be a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 There's a lot of similarities on the setup of the Feb 13 event to the current one. Notice the northern stream piece on the Euro (Day 4 500MB map) that the Euro resolves on its 12Z run by squishing down the southern stream energy vs. phasing it up, hence its OTS. The 18Z GFS doesn't have that pronounced feature letting the southern energy wrap up by itself and hug the coast. It was in the day 3-4 range guidance started to resolve the vort interactions with the current event...which ended up being a full phase and a bomb to our NE. All we need is good inteactions with these features in the TN/lower OV valley and we are set. I'm not as worried about rain as I am a miss, given that the 528dm line doesn't clear northern Maine (and hasn't on recent GFS runs) by time the vorts in question get to the longitude of the Great Lakes. Those heights are favorable to keep enough cold air in. That being said, I think the Presendent's day setup has pretty darn good potential as well and might be the best out of the two...hasn't it been a while since we had a "true" Miller A around here? Maybe Feb 2006? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 PD3 is just strange looking and then truncation makes it weirder..is it normal to get a 980mb low over center city Philadelphia? Only normal at 18z gfs time. Things are looking really good for now. Best chances at good snow on almost 750 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 18z GFS looks pretty good... agree with zwyts re the truncation part. Looks like we have a good period coming up for good snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 18z GFS looks pretty good... agree with zwyts re the truncation part. Looks like we have a good period coming up for good snows Yes sir yoda, two really legitimate chances <10 days, with vd storm down to 117 on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 pd3 might happen but the gfs look over the conus is still hella weird for a big storm around here. it looks better than 12z tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This next weeks storms may make the northeast nor'easter look like one of our clippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This next weeks storms may make the northeast nor'easter look like one of our clippers Now you are getting me excited!! Can it top Knickerbocker you think, Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This next weeks storms may make the northeast nor'easter look like one of our clippers That would be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So I hit a happy hour / "band practice", but I'm back. So Plato and Q is legit it would seem? Makes this upcoming week useless for work.....again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Damn, sounds like a one in a thousand year week or two around here. Guess I better oil up the shovel and plow. One good thing, it's not a million years into the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Damn, sounds like a one in a thousand year week or two around here. Guess I better oil up the shovel and plow. One good thing, it's not a million years into the future. I don't think this upcoming week will be even 1% as good as the stretch in early February 2010. If we get 4 inches total it will be a victory. This winter is just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I don't think this upcoming week will be even 1% as good as the stretch in early February 2010. If we get 4 inches total it will be a victory. This winter is just awful.northeast Maryland wi get your 2-5 tonight so that shouldn't be hard...Oh wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I don't think this upcoming week will be even 1% as good as the stretch in early February 2010. If we get 4 inches total it will be a victory. This winter is just awful. I think you are absolutely correct. At this point even my optimism has suffered a standing 8 count. I'll be recovered in time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We really are feast or famine. At least we are entering a feast portion, or so it seems. Well deserved! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonickteam Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Does a storm 10 days away look this good or is everyone just trying to avoid watching New England get buried? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Does a storm 10 days away look this good or is everyone just trying to avoid watching New England get buried? the first event looks interesting.. the second one is total fantasy still and looks weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I hope at least one of these works out. It's too early to tell and quite honestly I don't even want to look at the models until Tuesday (for the Wednesday "event"). I'm not a sophisticated enough forecaster to say for sure, but I would think a -NAO and a pumping STJ give us a chance. Sounds more like an El Nino winter, to me, but because it's not I have a healthy dose of cautiousness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Does a storm 10 days away look this good or is everyone just trying to avoid watching New England get buried? I'm going with yes and yes. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The storm looks good on the ens members. Not an across the board lock, but pretty strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the first event looks interesting.. the second one is total fantasy still and looks weird. one thing is certain. It's not looking like this in 192 hours. The entire evolution is weird. But it's been weird in back to back runs. I guess it's possible for an upper level trough to dig full conus latitude vertically while not moving horizontally. but I have a doubt or 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 one thing is certain. It's not looking like this in 192 hours. nope.JPG The entire evolution is weird. But it's been weird in back to back runs. I guess it's possible for an upper level trough to dig full conus latitude vertically while not moving horizontally. but I have a doubt or 90. Meteorological impossibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 one thing is certain. It's not looking like this in 192 hours. nope.JPG The entire evolution is weird. But it's been weird in back to back runs. I guess it's possible for an upper level trough to dig full conus latitude vertically while not moving horizontally. but I have a doubt or 90. this run looks better/more believable than 12z. with the 12z 500 low closing so far west and being so far north not sure how we'd get a good snow.. not to mention the storm forming near the coast and heading for the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Time to start stocking up on Valentine's Day candy, before the inevitable pre-storm panic buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm so all in now I'm betting my house and Emerson stock on it. Welcome to the club bud. This is it. I'm normally pessimistic, but I'm down for next week. This is our chance. I'm switching to you and WinterWxLvr's team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I actually am worried the VD storm could cut inland to be honest, other than that, all systems go. A high qpf event, we got a chance to break that effin streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I actually am worried the VD storm could cut inland to be honest, other than that, all systems go. A high qpf event, we got a chance to break that effin streak. Not likely, thank Monday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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