Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not what I'm saying Ian. I just said its Ok that it's not there now. Is total model agreement really plausible 5 days out? Is that really all that common? I knew what you were saying. It all comes down to sunday evening. If the euro doesn't show anything by then and the gfs goes to hell then we can talk about how great the euro is. It's a good model. Especially with monsters. But no better than the gfs with regular stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the euro vort is strong...its just a bit more south than the GFS. otherwise pretty similar. the one on Feb 18-19 is hectacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 you would have seen that our precip would come on the day 7 map which shows (on Accuwx pro) to give us between .5"-.75" qpf and we all know .5-.75" on the JMA translates to .00005-.000075" in reality. That was the point of my facetiousness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 and we all know .5-.75" on the JMA translates to .00005-.000075" in reality. that's a different argument on a different day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the euro vort is strong...its just a bit more south than the GFS. otherwise pretty similar. the one on Feb 18-19 is hectacular the JMA day 8 is equally hectacular fwliw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the euro vort is strong...its just a bit more south than the GFS. otherwise pretty similar. the one on Feb 18-19 is hectacular Does anyone really believe that this is destined to slide out beneath us? I don't. I'm more concerned about things going back to coast jumper. I've seen a lot of storms slide beneath us but this one doesn't have the characteristics unless it's weak as a kitten. It could be i guess but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the JMA day 8 is equally hectacular fwliw Edited for stupidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 and we all know .5-.75" on the JMA translates to .00005-.000075" in reality. That was the point of my facetiousness. Yeah, the JMA blows up everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The pd3 storm is a lock IMO. 100% chance. One of those storms that shows up 8-9 days out and never dissappears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Does anyone really believe that this is destined to slide out beneath us? I don't. I'm more concerned about things going back to coast jumper. I've seen a lot of storms slide beneath us but this one doesn't have the characteristics unless it's weak as a kitten. It could be i guess but still. Dry concerns me the most. Always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the euro vort is strong...its just a bit more south than the GFS. otherwise pretty similar. the one on Feb 18-19 is hectacular Along the lines of the current Nemo deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The pd3 storm is a lock IMO. 100% chance. One of those storms that shows up 8-9 days out and never dissappears. maybe we should start a wishcasting thread this one is becoming useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Along the lines of the current Nemo deal? No, that's apples to oranges. Different beast. The vort proged next week is a typical one (and a solitary one). But its track make it pretty wet. IF it comes together we're going to be drooling with radar hallucinations a couple days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 maybe we should start a wishcasting thread this one is becoming useless This one jumped the nemo a long time ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Edited for stupidity. talk about stupidity it says "fwliw" meaning "for what little it's worth" reading is fundamental Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 talk about stupidity it says "fwliw" meaning "for what little it's worth" reading is fundamental Don't bother with him, he is an imbecile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Don't bother with him, he is an imbecile. Ya I edited MY statement because I said something stupid. Calm down. Everyone is so quick to hate on me here. I suppose it is hard being the new guy in school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 18z gfs just a little faster and less pos tilt than 12z so far through 81. Vort looks good. Should be another ok run overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 18z gfs just a little faster and less pos tilt than 12z so far through 81. Vort looks good. Should be another ok run overall. you think the last run was only ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 you think the last run was only ok? lol- it's going to fall apart at some point before coming back together. 18z not as amped at 93. might be a slider... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the ECMWF EPS control is north of the ECMWF....we get a few inches. THE PD storm looks like your typical PD 2003 1979 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lol- it's going to fall apart at some point before coming back together. 18z not as amped at 93. might be a slider... im ready to punt VD. My focus is PD3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the ECMWF EPS control is north of the ECMWF....we get a few inches. THE PD storm looks like your typical PD 2003 1979 event you've lost it.. more than usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 18Z GFS has a closed low at 21Z Tues... 12Z didn't have that... has to count for something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i havent felt so good about as storm(PD3)...since the blizzard of 96. This is 100% chance a huge storm imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 gotta like 117 hrs on gfs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_117_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 BOOM Hopefully that will be the new NEXT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ill take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Damn thats another nice run. Looking like a runner or transfer is becoming less likely. Thank God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm so all in now I'm betting my house and Emerson stock on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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