Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the 500 low is pretty far south. but it is day forever away... so whatever. Just that much more time and distance to pull from the gulf and the gulf stream. We're going to have our first F2 in the middle of a blizzard. Boston Schmoston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm not ready yet to completely destroy what is left of my credibility. When Jason asks me to do an article on it then maybe I'll be ready to doom it. I am interested in your thoughts about the setup though. Seems like a moneymaker in the grand scheme. Fraught with strength and timing of course but getting close to a classic look for a modest event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I am interested in your thoughts about the setup though. Seems like a moneymaker in the grand scheme. Fraught with strength and timing of course but getting close to a classic look for a modest event. I don't like today's D+11 quite as much as the one from the last two but it still got a nice negative nao but now the pac ridge seems to have hifted west a little. Still not bad and better than earlier in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I believe Mr. Chill pointed out something very smart. The EURO is at its best with the "big ones". It nailed Sandy in a way eerily similiar to this. Once locked it, it did not waver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 false alarm on the JMA. Cache issues....i found it very odd that it was supressed but that was yesterday run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 168 on accuweather does go up the coast...and get us with good snow but a bit too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It also has a monster developing at 192. I think the PD storm is all but a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Feb. 22-24, 1989 was used as possible analog for the threat on the 17th. Can anyone tell me where I can find access to snowfall maps from prior storms? I remember some big snows in the 80's but not sure about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yeah..2/23/89 was a major bust..ORF got like 100" and we got zip DT uses that analog more than Andy reid uses the short pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 today's JMA looks incredibly like the GFS I don't have good maps but the euro looked the gfs @ 96. Didn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 JMA is deceptive...blues are not really wet. The american blue is the Japenese purple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I really like where we stand for the vday storm, hits on 12z by the GFS, UK, GGEM, JMA, and the 6z DGEX. The euro improved too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 JMA is like a 6-8" snow storm for DC yep. easily. JMA/GGEM/GFS/DGEX vs euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 they both have an inverted trough in dixie....GFS pops a low earlier and further west...but yes...not dissimilar at 96...i dont have good upper air maps for euro I know, SV has some, but decent. What were you looking for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yep. easily. JMA/GGEM/GFS/DGEX vs euro lol UKMET is in the GFS camp as well through 120 (end of run). Very similar to the GFS at 120hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 UKMET is in the GFS camp as well through 120 (end of run). Very similar to the GFS at 120hrs. I feel good about a 6-10'' snow region wide. The streak ends soon ladies and gents! Just need to get Dr. NO on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Plato looking good, how does PDIII "Q" look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 UKMET is in the GFS camp as well through 120 (end of run). Very similar to the GFS at 120hrs. Usually don't look at that but yes, not bad. I think what I find comforting about this setup is it isn't some jacked up convoluted dual low with stream interaction. Sure those can show model snow in our yards but heh, they suck. At least the globals and secondaries are converging on a single vort tracking the south and passing south. Not hard to like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Have we had an event this winter where we got at least one nut job 18Z GFS run with purples over the area? Maybe this will be the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just remember the rule about how the least snowiest model is usually right recently. If we can get the Euro on board, it's all systems go. But if not, I still have strong doubts about the storm. So despite my excitement, I will temper my expectations until the GFS and Euro agree. Even though the Euro is the odd man out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I feel good about a 6-10'' snow region wide. The streak ends soon ladies and gents! Just need to get Dr. NO on board You did NOT just say that... Now we're jixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Let's be honest here, the Euro has been good for this storm (today), but it hasn't been very good in the 5+ period so far this winter. I can list several example without even trying. So I don't think it's a bad thing for us that it is seemingly standing alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Have we had an event this winter where we got at least one nut job 18Z GFS run with purples over the area? Maybe this will be the one. Not purples but we've been 18z gfs'ed a couple times already. I just want a similar vort track. That's not too much to ask. GFS has had like 4-6 runs of similar evolution out of the sw into texas now. This one is all ours till it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Let's be honest here, the Euro has been good for this storm (today), but it hasn't been very good in the 5+ period so far this winter. I can list several example without even trying. So I don't think it's a bad thing for us that it is seemingly standing alone. I feel good about a 6-10'' snow region wide. The streak ends soon ladies and gents! Just need to get Dr. NO on board solid analysis here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I hadn't really been paying too close attention to the state of the NAO. Looked at huffman's site....really good model consensus for a healthy west-based index in a week or so. I can't seem to figure out how to post a link, or better yet a pic, of the comparison plots. Anyone, is there a way to copy and paste a pic w/o having to use an imaging host? There's got to be an easier way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 solid analysis here What exactly is wrong with it? I suppose you're gonna tell me it was good with Sandy first when it had northern Virginia under 36 inches of snow and later drove Sandy up the Chesapeake? Or maybe it was the 12+ inches of snow it laid on the Shen Valley in the Nov nor'easter. Perhaps it was the 8-12 inch storm it had in early December? Maybe the day after Christmas storm which it had in Madison Wisconsin that ended up in London Ky? Maybe it was the storm it had a couple weeks back where 0.5+ precip turned into 0.05. Yeah, hug it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 false alarm on the JMA. Cache issues....i found it very odd that it was supressed but that was yesterday run Using the standard JMA QFP to reality calculation, we might see a cumulus cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What exactly is wrong with it? I suppose you're gonna tell me it was good with Sandy first when it had northern Virginia under 36 inches of snow and later drove Sandy up the Chesapeake? Or maybe it was the 12+ inches of snow it laid on the Shen Valley in the Nov nor'easter. Perhaps it was the 8-12 inch storm it had in early December? Maybe the day after Christmas storm which it had in Madison Wisconsin that ended up in London Ky? Maybe it was the storm it had a couple weeks back where 0.5+ precip turned into 0.05. Yeah, hug it. I think everyone's model memory is highly selective. Don't get the logic that we don't need the Euro on board... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think everyone's model memory is highly selective. Don't get the logic that we don't need the Euro on board... Not what I'm saying Ian. I just said its Ok that it's not there now. Is total model agreement really plausible 5 days out? Is that really all that common? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Using the standard JMA QFP to reality calculation, we might see a cumulus cloud. your dry, facetiousness has failed you on this one Yeoman JMA only goes out 6 days on that site had you checked the 700RH on Day 6, however http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_700_GPHTMPRH_144HR.gif and the 500mb map http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_144HR.gif you would have seen that our precip would come on the day 7 map which shows (on Accuwx pro) to give us between .5"-.75" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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