aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Quick question...is the 30% chance of snow LWX has for my area on Friday greater than the 15% risk of severe that SPC has for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Quick question...is the 30% chance of snow LWX has for my area on Friday greater than the 15% risk of severe that SPC has for tomorrow? Not sure but there's a 50% chance of them being 100% right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Not sure but there's a 50% chance of them being 100% right. How come they never put a 2% chance of snow like they do for a tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 How come they never put a 2% chance of snow like they do for a tornado? Probably because they would bust high every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 CRAS is on board for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Euro dry as a bone thru day 5 around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Probably because they would bust high every time. One could argue that snow has become more rare than a tornado has around here...I say open up the entire book of percentages.....0.8% chance of snow on Wednesday night after the front passes at BWI.....assuming the shear and the cape are ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Quick question...is the 30% chance of snow LWX has for my area on Friday greater than the 15% risk of severe that SPC has for tomorrow? Well played good sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 How come they never put a 2% chance of snow like they do for a tornado? Weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Weenie Comparable weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 euro has nothing....thank god we have a model to keep our expectations real On a positive note...Euro has not been the best model this winter...who would like to venture a guess as to the best verification model so far this horrific winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Euro dry as a bone thru day 5 around here Yeah, and it's been money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Yeah, and it's been money. For the most part, it has been money when it shows nothing. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Yeah, and it's been money. Yeah its been the big teaser, had people all giddy for a big event last week based on 2 runs, then it had a nice MA storm for this Friday for a run then it disappeared. The fact that is shows nothing, really means nothing. Its not been its usual stellar self this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Always go with the least snowy model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 One of the difficulties is the amount of time were dealing with. We're back to a quick moving ns w/ trough east setup. The shortwaves that come in off the pac in the nw are inherently difficult (or impossible) to accurately model. This in conjunction with differences with trough / ridge axis placement means that any model could be right or wrong right now. GFS seems to be better as picking up ns sw's even if their strength and timing is screwed up. I would cautiously hedge towards the gfs but not expect everything to be all wrapped up like it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 On a positive note...Euro has not been the best model this winter...who would like to venture a guess as to the best verification model so far this horrific winter? I do not care about that, all i really care about is your expert prediction for our next snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I would be surprised if the GFS doesn't bust. If if Euro has been "off" you would expect to see some convergence and we get our usual.01. ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 On a positive note...Euro has not been the best model this winter...who would like to venture a guess as to the best verification model so far this horrific winter? wrong as usual. Thanks to am19psu for posting these in the philly thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I find it both funny and slightly sad that the UKMET is doing better at 500mb than the GFS. wrong as usual. Thanks to am19psu for posting these in the philly thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Always go with the least snowy model And then lower your expectations by 75%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 wrong as usual. Thanks to am19psu for posting these in the philly thread Seems to me the euro is king at 850 but not necessarily at 500....unless I'm reading that wrong....plus the last week or so the GFS looks better than the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 3 years ago it was 50 degrees colder and snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 3 years ago it was 50 degrees colder and snowingOh wait, that's tomorrow. Troll cancel. Actually, I'll probably use it again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 JMA has the storm. Euro is only model thats clueless lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 You could just copy and paste this. You always think we're toast. Yeah, but how are his verification scores? You know, that's lame too. I could say every morning that it's not going to snow, and I'd be right about 98% of the time. Or more. I will be excited when I think there is a valid reason to be. I admit I am pessimistic more often then not when it comes to getting significant snow, but honestly for every storm that hits our area there will be 10 misses. I can not stand the JB's of the world that hype up every possible threat and then just move on when nothing happens. Its either a lack of knowledge or dishonest. I was getting the same complaints back in January 2010 when I was not excited about any of those clipper chances and even though we had just had a KU event in December people were starting to get down again on that winter as wasting potential. I remember from about 2 weeks out starting to get excited about the early February period when verbatim the GFS has a rainstorm for DC. Same in January 2011. People were mad at me because I kept saying these vorts were too far north and moving too fast to give us good snow, and they kept missing us and I was not excited with any of our threats. Then I saw something that seemed to have a good shot so I said I was excited about the chance. I have also been wrong, I really liked a setup in early March 2010 and I thought the early January setup this year had at least a chance, and both of those fell apart. Even as pessimistic as I am, the truth is I am still way more often wrong by overforecasting snow threats then under. That should perhaps tell you something about how craptastic this area can be for long stretches when it comes to getting snowstorms. I LOVE snow, and trust me when there is the right setup and we actually have a real chance, and not just a total shot in the dark wing and a prayer, I will be excited and say so...this year its just been all wrong for us to get snow, and I dont like to sugar coat it. Finally, so its not all doom and gloom, I like some of what I am seeing in the long range GFS ensembles after Feb 10th. It looks like we moderate but then the trough looks to get back into the east, but with some hint that there will be a southern branch this time, and the trough axis may be further west this time to allow something to happen. Its way way out there, and its just a hint, but I am not ready to write off the Feb 10-20th period yet. We still have that last window. It would help if the MJO can progress into phases 2-3 and not enter the COD. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I will be excited when I think there is a valid reason to be. I admit I am pessimistic more often then not when it comes to getting significant snow, but honestly for every storm that hits our area there will be 10 misses. I can not stand the JB's of the world that hype up every possible threat and then just move on when nothing happens. Its either a lack of knowledge or dishonest. I think there's an apple to oranges thing going on though. You only get excited when the stars align. So that pretty much eliminates your excitement about 90% of our average winter (100% for 2 years running). So it's a given that you will post a down view on everything until milk and honey goodness is locked in. Most of us don't operate that way. I just like tracking winter weather in general. 2" would be thrilling. 4" and I fall out of my seat. I think I speak for the majority here. 2-4" is a wonderful and magical thing. Something that may cause the mentally unstable to run naked through the neighborhood. And most important of all, we're trying to have some fun in the face of adversity. I know that if some 2-3" slopfest to rain event is coming right at us that you will be unhappy. We all do. We don't need to be reminded that our pattern sucks every few days. We already know it sucks. Lemons and lemonade is the theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I will be excited when I think there is a valid reason to be. I admit I am pessimistic more often then not when it comes to getting significant snow, but honestly for every storm that hits our area there will be 10 misses. I can not stand the JB's of the world that hype up every possible threat and then just move on when nothing happens. Its either a lack of knowledge or dishonest. I was getting the same complaints back in January 2010 when I was not excited about any of those clipper chances and even though we had just had a KU event in December people were starting to get down again on that winter as wasting potential. I remember from about 2 weeks out starting to get excited about the early February period when verbatim the GFS has a rainstorm for DC. Same in January 2011. People were mad at me because I kept saying these vorts were too far north and moving too fast to give us good snow, and they kept missing us and I was not excited with any of our threats. Then I saw something that seemed to have a good shot so I said I was excited about the chance. I have also been wrong, I really liked a setup in early March 2010 and I thought the early January setup this year had at least a chance, and both of those fell apart. Even as pessimistic as I am, the truth is I am still way more often wrong by overforecasting snow threats then under. That should perhaps tell you something about how craptastic this area can be for long stretches when it comes to getting snowstorms. I LOVE snow, and trust me when there is the right setup and we actually have a real chance, and not just a total shot in the dark wing and a prayer, I will be excited and say so...this year its just been all wrong for us to get snow, and I dont like to sugar coat it. Finally, so its not all doom and gloom, I like some of what I am seeing in the long range GFS ensembles after Feb 10th. It looks like we moderate but then the trough looks to get back into the east, but with some hint that there will be a southern branch this time, and the trough axis may be further west this time to allow something to happen. Its way way out there, and its just a hint, but I am not ready to write off the Feb 10-20th period yet. We still have that last window. It would help if the MJO can progress into phases 2-3 and not enter the COD. We will see. Well, I'm with you on the trough aspect. It would surely be nice to see it further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 next week's clipper/Miller B has a pretty potent vort- would like to get it as far south of us as possible (there won't be a bitterly cold air mass surpressing it totally like last week) That vort may slow down and start to tilt negative with time, on guidance, and could then tap some southern stream juice.. In that case, we'd want it far enough south then that we won't have p-type issues and would have a somewhat decent event around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It's not snowing this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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