mitchnick Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Maybe. It will probably get drier and we will dry slot and we will feel stupid for investing at all. gFS obviously has this bias. Sounds crazy but our best hope might be a stronger more consolidate low to the west that front thumps before changing over or dry slotting. This would benefit you guys more than me. we had that 5 days before Friday's "event" and it got squashed because the pattern has such a tendency to repeat, imho this has a greater likelihood to go further south than north in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 And for the record....I am not upset at all about having 3 potential events (however minor they may be) inside of 8 days. Exactly. This times a million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 we had that 5 days before Friday's "event" and it got squashed because the pattern has such a tendency to repeat, imho this has a greater likelihood to go further south than north in the end I wont be excited by any GFS run showing a 700 mile oblong 1012 low running across the mountains....get me a 996 low running up the apps and a 50-50...who cares about a dry slot or changeover...is there anyone who wouldnt take 2-3" of snow to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Exactly. This times a million. I am on board with any event that actually happens even if a 0.4" cartopper for me....I enjoyed our cold outbreak and small events more than most people I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 we had that 5 days before Friday's "event" and it got squashed because the pattern has such a tendency to repeat, imho this has a greater likelihood to go further south than north in the end Maybe, but this is a much more vigorous ns system. It's going to keep trying to bounce against the wall to the north as it approaches. But I have to confess that I'm probably more interested than I should be attm. Comparing 500 with the last 3 gfs runs shows why the trend is moving in our favor. I know it's precarious and full of heatbreak but like zwyts just pointed out. There is a 50-50ish feature around. Much will have to do with what happens with the clippers if front of it. They are trending stronger. Notsomuch for good snow here but kinda blowing up a bit in the atl and reinforcing the block over the maritimes. Here's the 12z (left) and 6z (right) side by side. See what's going on in canada? Much better block in central canada on 12z. You can see how it helps with the overall flow. And here is 0z from last night: I kinda agree with zwyts about just counting our blessings and cashing in "something" on the front vs ss interaction miller b scenario. At least that is simple. However, get the primary further south and we get into a whole difference type of scenario. I wouldn't be terrible upset being on the n side of the primary and rolling the dice with the transfer.... Interesting setup. Could be the biggest storm of the year. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The pattern is no where close to ideal. 1'' does not and will not ever do it for me. 12z has marginal 850s as well as surface temp. Should be snow onset but this is anything but something to get excited for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The pattern is no where close to ideal. 1'' does not and will not ever do it for me. 12z has marginal 850s as well as surface temp. Should be snow onset but this is anything but something to get excited for. thanks for sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'd almost rather the southern stream stayed away and the northern stream be stronger and force overrunning into a dome if we are lucky enough to have one. Well, it isn't some robust southern wave but I just wanted to put out that there is definitely involvement. So, that ends up making the overrunning shield more expansive. Essentially, you get a clipper on roids' because 9/10 clippers are basically moisture-starved. As far as the 2/8-2/12 situation, I think the full blown +WPO and slow PAC train of waves without any polar help is a possible solution but not the most likely IMO. Perhaps I'm suffering from a case of "seeing what I want to see" but I think we get a modified +WPO pattern with more PNA and a little more -NAO_east as a STJ train heads in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The pattern is no where close to ideal. 1'' does not and will not ever do it for me. 12z has marginal 850s as well as surface temp. Should be snow onset but this is anything but something to get excited for. Of course it isn't ideal. Nobody has even remotely hinted at any type of ideal pattern setting up this entire winter so far. But your analysis is poor. Verbatim, temp profile is fine for the most snow we've seen from a single storm all year. The last 24 hours has given a much better shot for us too. And the system is moving a bit faster with a cold antecedent airmass in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The pattern is no where close to ideal. 1'' does not and will not ever do it for me. 12z has marginal 850s as well as surface temp. Should be snow onset but this is anything but something to get excited for. Then why bother coming here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Maybe this is our march 1999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Maybe this is our march 1999 ha...could be...that wasnt that great of a pattern though we had quasi blocking where we wanted it....that air mass was pretty anomalous though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Quick question...is the 30% chance of snow LWX has for my area on Friday greater than the 15% risk of severe that SPC has for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Quick question...is the 30% chance of snow LWX has for my area on Friday greater than the 15% risk of severe that SPC has for tomorrow? Not sure but there's a 50% chance of them being 100% right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Not sure but there's a 50% chance of them being 100% right. How come they never put a 2% chance of snow like they do for a tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 How come they never put a 2% chance of snow like they do for a tornado? Probably because they would bust high every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 CRAS is on board for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Euro dry as a bone thru day 5 around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Probably because they would bust high every time. One could argue that snow has become more rare than a tornado has around here...I say open up the entire book of percentages.....0.8% chance of snow on Wednesday night after the front passes at BWI.....assuming the shear and the cape are ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Quick question...is the 30% chance of snow LWX has for my area on Friday greater than the 15% risk of severe that SPC has for tomorrow? Well played good sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 How come they never put a 2% chance of snow like they do for a tornado? Weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Weenie Comparable weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 euro has nothing....thank god we have a model to keep our expectations real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 euro has nothing....thank god we have a model to keep our expectations real On a positive note...Euro has not been the best model this winter...who would like to venture a guess as to the best verification model so far this horrific winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Euro dry as a bone thru day 5 around here Yeah, and it's been money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Yeah, and it's been money. For the most part, it has been money when it shows nothing. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Yeah, and it's been money. Yeah its been the big teaser, had people all giddy for a big event last week based on 2 runs, then it had a nice MA storm for this Friday for a run then it disappeared. The fact that is shows nothing, really means nothing. Its not been its usual stellar self this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Always go with the least snowy model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 One of the difficulties is the amount of time were dealing with. We're back to a quick moving ns w/ trough east setup. The shortwaves that come in off the pac in the nw are inherently difficult (or impossible) to accurately model. This in conjunction with differences with trough / ridge axis placement means that any model could be right or wrong right now. GFS seems to be better as picking up ns sw's even if their strength and timing is screwed up. I would cautiously hedge towards the gfs but not expect everything to be all wrapped up like it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 On a positive note...Euro has not been the best model this winter...who would like to venture a guess as to the best verification model so far this horrific winter? I do not care about that, all i really care about is your expert prediction for our next snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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