psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro weeklies have strong west based -nao along with a moderate -ao from week 2 to end of run(feb 18-mar10) If we can get a -nao I feel very good we cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If we can get a -nao I feel very good we cash in. It's been showing up in the lr in various forms for a week. Mostly east based and transient for the most part. It's crazy when you look @ the graph from dec 1st through today. Never above or below 1sd except for a small period in the middle of dec when it was a good bit negative. The pac killed it though. It was a torch. Now it's firmly in place from hr 300 through the end of the run on the 18z gfs. Right smack dab over the middle of gl. And it doesn't run away like a scared mouse either. If we can't get a damn miller a to run the coast with split flow, +pna, pv nearby, and a freekin 540dm ridge over gl then I'm telling you, someone sold our souls without asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think the GFS might give us a blizzard for Feb 18-19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 sorry, jus not cold enough for Feb 18-19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the only good thing about a backloaded winter is you know spring is like three feet away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 euro has the Feb 18th storm, rain to snow setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 euro has the Feb 18th storm, rain to snow setup Hecs for New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Getting close to the time for a run or 2 to show a perfect setup for the 13th. 6z shows multiple chances and no torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 6Z GEFS has potential for V-day and has the 17th storm as well. Neither is perfect, but ducks on the pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Getting close to the time for a run or 2 to show a perfect setup for the 13th. 6z shows multiple chances and no torch. E trough and W ridge were locked in on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Punt... ....new attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Punt... ....new attitude. When I start punting, then you do. People get the idea. You and I love optimism, but gotta keep it real buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 When I start punting, then you do. People get the idea. I get the idea. It's finally gonna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I get the idea. It's finally gonna snow. LOL, probably. If any model shows me with less than 0.5 inches of precip, and a cutoff within 200 miles, I'm badmouthing, punting, any and all storms from this point forward. It's either that, or plant a cactus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I get the idea. It's finally gonna snow. You're not gonna see the same me as before. Starting with today's event, I'm giving you guys the same forecast and outlook I give my business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I get the idea. It's finally gonna snow. our best storm this season was the bob chill storm.....perhaps you should create another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 our best storm this season was the bob chill storm.....perhaps you should create another This is true, almost 2" of beautiful snow, came down heavy for a while. Everything looked great. Makes me realize how much I miss 2-4 or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 our best storm this season was the bob chill storm.....perhaps you should create another Can't do it. Permanent retirement on that stuff. But I'm all in for the 13-14th. I honestly believe this this is the cities best chance to break the streak. Even if it's messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 LWX discussion from early morning, FWIW LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIPRES IS FCST TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUN NGT AS AN ORGANIZED LOW MOVES NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BROAD SLY FLOW IN BETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS WILL DRAW WARM/MOIST AIR UP THE ERN SEABOARD. MOST GUIDANCE PRINTS OUT LIGHT QPF LATE SUN NGT INTO MON. WHILE TEMPS ALOFT QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING PRIOR PRECIP STARTING...A WEDGE OF COLD AIR AT THE SFC WILL TAKE LONGER TO ERODE. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SETUP AT THE ONSET BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN SOMETIME DURING THE DAY MON. IN-SITU CAD MAY DEVELOP MON AND LAST LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE...SO COLDER TEMPS AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ERY NEXT WEEK. FCST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES CONSIDERABLY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A WAVE OF LOPRES DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKE THE 12Z GFS AND SOME ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW. 00Z ECMWF ALSO ON BOARD W/ THIS SOLN...BUT IT KEEP PCPN S OF CWFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 LWX discussion from early morning, FWIW LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIPRES IS FCST TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUN NGT AS AN ORGANIZED LOW MOVES NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BROAD SLY FLOW IN BETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS WILL DRAW WARM/MOIST AIR UP THE ERN SEABOARD. MOST GUIDANCE PRINTS OUT LIGHT QPF LATE SUN NGT INTO MON. WHILE TEMPS ALOFT QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING PRIOR PRECIP STARTING...A WEDGE OF COLD AIR AT THE SFC WILL TAKE LONGER TO ERODE. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SETUP AT THE ONSET BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN SOMETIME DURING THE DAY MON. IN-SITU CAD MAY DEVELOP MON AND LAST LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE...SO COLDER TEMPS AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ERY NEXT WEEK. FCST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES CONSIDERABLY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A WAVE OF LOPRES DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKE THE 12Z GFS AND SOME ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW. 00Z ECMWF ALSO ON BOARD W/ THIS SOLN...BUT IT KEEP PCPN S OF CWFA. Right on cue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Right on cue. Just wait till the euro hones in on lagging energy and decent vort. It's gonna show a raging miller B w/ dc dryslot after 1" of slop covered in rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah. This is just a hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 For some reason, I feel like the h5 chart of the 12z NAM looks intriguing... in its la la land 84 hr map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 heh, and the gfs is doing it. much improved 5H and 850....here we go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS is a very nice event,..hhopefully this one keeps trending good...anything with a transfer makes me nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yup, a nice look 120 hours out. Nice high to our north and cold air around. Hopefully this run shows that it can get enough moisture to us in that setup to make it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 heh, and the gfs is doing it. much improved 5H and 850....here we go.... it is a heavy QPF event and most of it is snow...coastal transfers worry me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Taking and running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I've been doing this too long. I'm starting to predict what models are going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yup, a nice look 120 hours out. Nice high to our north and cold air around. Hopefully this run shows that it can get enough moisture to us in that setup to make it interesting. sorry to be that dude who is 24 hours ahead, but nobody is going to be disappointed with this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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