TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 See Ian? Its not me all the time! I had to add to the concensus yoder! Like you said, only talk about it when it might be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 See Ian? Its not me all the time! lol- all the secondary models are good when you are looking to back up the majors but not the other way around (not saying you do that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 A. How will DR. No screw us?A) no storm/OTSb-) strong primary to the west/mostly rainC) late transfer/dryslotD) Inland runner that barrels right over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bob chill really thinks E, it wont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 UKIE does look interesting enough in that at 120 it has a 1000 L over ATL (or slightly west) and at 144 its a 984 L looks like over the BM for SNE (which sucks I know) And I will just say it... GGEM at 132 has a 995 L NE of HSE but ESE of ORF... so it looks like it is in a good position as it moves ENE/NE after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GEFS mean looks like it's going to scoot it off the SE coast, but then salvages a baggy coastal at 132. I imagine there's a mix of members that have an Op-like solution and those that have an OTS solution. Based on the mean, doesn't look like the Apps runner solution is well-represented, if at all. 16th/17th looks nothing like the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ryan Maue on twitter just posted a map of the GFS Accumulated Snowfall Map valid from Feb 8 to Feb 16. If one believes....shows us all under a snugly blanket of snow. No cartoppers I can see. Maybe someone else has access to this and can post it? I tried to copy and paste. Didn't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ryan Maue on twitter just posted a map of the GFS Accumulated Snowfall Map valid from Feb 8 to Feb 16. If one believes....shows us all under a snugly blanket of snow. No cartoppers I can see. Maybe someone else has access to this and can post it? I tried to copy and paste. Didn't work. Just read earlier in this thread. Or look up the clown map from the GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like a quick cold shot follows the 16-17 storm that goes over us on the GEFS as it goes to a 994 over ALB.. would screw SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just read earlier in this thread. Or look up the clown map from the GFS run. I saw it already. Just didn't know if everyone else did. Trying to keep up with the threads (and work) at the same time...not easy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GEFS mean looks like it's going to scoot it off the SE coast, but then salvages a baggy coastal at 132. I imagine there's a mix of members that have an Op-like solution and those that have an OTS solution. Based on the mean, doesn't look like the Apps runner solution is well-represented, if at all. 16th/17th looks nothing like the Op. The only reason I'm not worried about ots (yet) is because of the last one that slid out from under us. There was one nasty brick wall of confluence to the n and it STILL almost got to us. Yea, I know no 2 setups are alike but still. The look @ 500 has not been glaring suppressed at all. If it's weak it can easily slide but if the vort is jazzed it's coming our way in some form or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ryan Maue on twitter just posted a map of the GFS Accumulated Snowfall Map valid from Feb 8 to Feb 16. If one believes....shows us all under a snugly blanket of snow. No cartoppers I can see. Maybe someone else has access to this and can post it? I tried to copy and paste. Didn't work. He fits in well with the Bastardi clan. Most winters you can find DC getting snow on the GFS somewhere every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 How will DR. No screw us? A) no storm/OTS b-) strong primary to the west/mostly rain C) late transfer/dryslot D) Inland runner that barrels right over us If it's the typical Euro, I go with B on its first attempt, gradually morphing into A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 How will DR. No screw us? A) no storm/OTS b-) strong primary to the west/mostly rain C) late transfer/dryslot D) Inland runner that barrels right over us In order of likelyhood A D B C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Haven't had time to look at today's maps.Glad to see at least one model has us getting some snow. My guess is A, C, B and D but I really haven't looked at anything, I just wanted to be a little different from Tracker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 all snow for most. gfslove.JPG That is beautiful. Hopefully it keeps trending better! The set-up is finally decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 euro might be slightly better but still gonna be ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 A!! not a bad move tho .. ill take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If you chose choice A today... you win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 not a bad move tho .. ill take it Much improved relatively speaking. 12z was a good suite for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 not a bad move tho .. ill take it I thought it looked closer at 96. Still lots of time and uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 baby steps, 5 days away, not punting this potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS ens members are pretty good for the storm. There are some timing issues between them, but the ones that looked suppressed are just delayed by 12-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I thought it looked closer at 96. Still lots of time and uncertainty. moved northern edge of precip from near va/nc border to near RIC. something tells me we aren't getting the gfs solution but the euro went the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It was obvious given the Euro's bias. If you chose choice A today... you win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 we'll have to see in 24 hours, but the euro's bias for today's storm was to lock in and nail it for 10 straight runs....we need the euro at some point.,.we have plenty of time though it hadn't done that with any snow event for anyone on the east coast this year I don't think in fact I mentioned yesterday I believe how it hadn't done this for any storm in a long time even our blizzards of 09/10 weren't set in stone on the Euro like today's event was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 something tells me we aren't getting the gfs solution lol- this made me laugh. Experience, history, logic, persistence, drought, snowhole? All of the above? I had a feeling the gfs was going to throw a good one into the mix but I was hoping it wouldn't be till sunday or so. I hate the free euro maps but from what I saw @ 96, 500 look pretty good. Decent strength vort near the same place as the gfs. good enough for now. It this really that much of a suppressed pattern though? Doesn't look like it to me. Anything of consequence that form along the gulf coast would likely make a run at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro has given us several fantasy storms this year only to have the GFS - correctly - rain on our parade. Now the roles are reversed. What is the axiom, the model which gives us the least snow tends to be the right one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 it hadn't done that with any snow event for anyone on the east coast this year I don't think in fact I mentioned yesterday I believe how it hadn't done this for any storm in a long time even our blizzards of 09/10 weren't set in stone on the Euro like today's event was euro is good with the big ones I think. We just haven't had one this year. This wasn't a standard miller B either. Euro did a nice job with the gulf low. And it's a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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