Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I dislike the Euro huggers but I'd bet on it over the GFS. Hopefully it moves at 12z. One run doesn't make a snowstorm sadly.. I've been watching what happens at 500 for days though. GFS is insistent on leaving something behind and having some additional energy dive in. It's been consistent and realistic. Euro will be on board today in some form or another. We're not going to like it as much as the gfs but the ingredients will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 should we be talking about anything more than having the potential for a solid accumulating snow event? probably not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 as long as it shows some potential, I dont really care what the solution is potential after that storm is there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I still like the 18th the best, but this GFS run has my interest for the V-day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I've been watching what happens at 500 for days though. GFS is insistent on leaving something behind and having some additional energy dive in. It's been consistent and realistic. Euro will be on board today in some form or another. We're not going to like it as much as the gfs but the ingredients will be there. the euro is in the same ballpark it just doesn't work the same magic with that vort .. keeps the flow more progressive etc. there are a few small moves that could make the gfs better for DC but overall it's about a perfect run. so it's probably got some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Breaking News--Orko is already on the boards. Guessing its the West storm. So looks like Plato then Q. Hahahah. Redonkulous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yeah...2 days later is PD3 kind of a nasty 500 pattern for a big storm here no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 kind of a nasty 500 pattern for a big storm here no? almost cutoff with little pieces coming under and up right where it would keep producing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 heh, looked at the sfc.. good luck with that storm happening. of course the model will change 1200 times before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the euro is in the same ballpark it just doesn't work the same magic with that vort .. keeps the flow more progressive etc. there are a few small moves that could make the gfs better for DC but overall it's about a perfect run. so it's probably got some issues. One of these days I'll pony up for pay euro. I'm over the 24 hour panels. I couldn't agree more that it can only go downhill from here unless something blows up further south and tracks the coast. I'll take any solution that breaks the streak and be happy. Even if it's messy. I'm not a chooser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 132 hours away is way better than 240 hours out. By tomorrow at this time, its 108 hours out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 16th/17th storm on the GFS is a hot mess. That's not PD3 for us unless you like chilly rain with backend flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 heh, looked at the sfc.. good luck with that storm happening. of course the model will change 1200 times before then. what happens on the sfc is overrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well there goes all hope for productivity next week. I head back to work Monday and know I will be swamped, but yeah... Multi-tasking ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 132 hours away is way better than 240 hours out. By tomorrow at this time, its 108 hours out.... the most important stuff is inside 120 or earlier....the setup in the maritimes by hr 120 really favors a good vort track for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the most important stuff is inside 120 or earlier....the setup in the maritimes by hr 120 really favors a good vort track for us. By 114 its evident we end up snowy, after that its gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Is this the new model?..sh-it the bed most of the winter and get a 2/11/06, 3/1/09, 1/26/11, 2/14/13 to kind of salvage winter? FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Is this the new model?..sh-it the bed most of the winter and get a 2/11/06, 3/1/09, 1/26/11 to kind of salvage winter? if we escape February without seeing a 3 inch snow.......I am banking on 15-25 inches from Feb 13 through March. More if we get a 1993 type superstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Maybe I don't have a great memory but having a closed 500 low form over the dakotas and then wobble around the midwest happens about never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i was kind of kidding about PD3 It is an ok pattern..the biggest problem with both storms is the 50-50 region though it is better with the 1st one...there is at least some bagginess where we need it that gigantic 500 low to our west doesn't seem to be something i recall with many snowstorms locally. but it might not even be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 that gigantic 500 low to our west doesn't seem to be something i recall with many snowstorms locally. but it might not even be there. i dont think the models have a handle on feb 18-19 yet. I have seen some really wild solutions. Look at the GGEm last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 6-7 inches for most by 12z thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 6-7 inches for most by 12z thurs That's a sight for sore eyes and would knock a lot of folks out of the contest. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 How will DR. No screw us? A) no storm/OTS b-) strong primary to the west/mostly rain C) late transfer/dryslot D) Inland runner that barrels right over us A hedge towards C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 A. No storm/OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The OTS possibility for Feb 13/14 is the one that I seems most plausible based on the set up and the last couple days of runs. Euro has bounced around with that idea as have the Euro ensembles and some of the GEFS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My guess is the euro goes inland runner. It's going to hang the energy back and be a little more amped that the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 whats the difference?...snow maps are silly and they always will be Exactly why we don't need to see it twice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My guess is the euro goes inland runner. It's going to hang the energy back and be a little more amped that the gfs.It likes to do that, Good news. Ukmet panels look really good, canadian has. 995 off ocmd, dgex a nice hit to go along with gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It likes to do that, Good news. Ukmet panels look really good, canadian has. 995 off ocmd, dgex a nice hit to go along with gfs. See Ian? Its not me all the time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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