Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 you might be right, and we could get through this period without much to show for it, but isn't it nice to have an stj again, and to see the trough digging to the south and west of us so it is at least possible to get an amplifying system to track just to our southeast versus needing some crazy northern branch interaction or a super clipper to somehow pull off a miracle? We always need a little luck, we have wasted plenty of great patterns. People remember 2001/02 as being aweful and it was but even that winter had a 10 day period that was a really nice setup in December and early January but was wasted. We had 3 really good chances, one ended up supressed just to our south, the second just never came together and ended up a mess and 2-3" for our area, and the last one phased a bit too early and ended up just north of us, PSU got 13". If one of those three had worked out, we wouldnt remember that year as being so awful. Luck has a lot to do with it, even in a good pattern. But I will take my chances on this upcoming pattern over the crap we have been dealing with the last 2 years, that is for sure. It's probably the best PAC pattern we have seen since 1/2011...it just sucks that we probably need a great pattern just to get a modest event...but we are stuck in rotting Nina hell, so c'est la vie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's probably the best PAC pattern we have seen since 1/2011...it just sucks that we probably need a great pattern just to get a modest event...but we are stuck in rotting Nina hell, so c'est la vie I agree completely, but the numbers don't lie, nina's and neutral after a nina are just flat awful for our area. Its not really fair to just ignore the influence the Nina pattern has though, that is a part of it, so having that huge negative working against us, means we need a lot of other factors to line up right to offset it. We are probably saying the same thing here. I am just following the evolution of this and going to hope for the best. I still think the 18th is our best shot. I think the Vday story is legit, and not a total crazy hail mary but it won't have any real cold in front to work with, so similar to the Jan 2011 storm it will require the perfect H5 track and the low to amplify at just the right time. The track is not far off from where it would need to be though so its a shot, but not a great one. Following that though, if we can get it to amplify up to our northeast, we will get a fresh injection of colder air, and have a window where odds favor confluence in the right place for us. It looks like the next storm might come in that window. Since we do not have a great atlantic pattern, the key is getting a storm to amplify and create a faux -nao type signal for a few days, then get the next system to come in during that window. If we had a real -nao block then this would be a VERY good pattern coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree completely, but the numbers don't lie, nina's and neutral after a nina are just flat awful for our area. Its not really fair to just ignore the influence the Nina pattern has though, that is a part of it, so having that huge negative working against us, means we need a lot of other factors to line up right to offset it. We are probably saying the same thing here. I am just following the evolution of this and going to hope for the best. I still think the 18th is our best shot. I think the Vday story is legit, and not a total crazy hail mary but it won't have any real cold in front to work with, so similar to the Jan 2011 storm it will require the perfect H5 track and the low to amplify at just the right time. The track is not far off from where it would need to be though so its a shot, but not a great one. Following that though, if we can get it to amplify up to our northeast, we will get a fresh injection of colder air, and have a window where odds favor confluence in the right place for us. It looks like the next storm might come in that window. Since we do not have a great atlantic pattern, the key is getting a storm to amplify and create a faux -nao type signal for a few days, then get the next system to come in during that window. If we had a real -nao block then this would be a VERY good pattern coming up. Unfortunately, there are a lot of "ifs" in that statement. At least we're not torching like last winter, which is good. We've had a couple of windows this winter where parts of the area have had minor events, but nothing area wide so far. With this next window, maybe we can get things more favorable - would love to see a moderate 3-5" event that starts in the early hours of the day, that everyone in our region can enjoy. Prior to last winter, such an event would seem reachable and reasonable, but last winter and this have left us cynical and feeling like we may as well be asking for a 12-24" snow event when we want a moderate 3-5" snowfall. So, I'm incredibly cynical, and wouldn't be shocked to come out of the next pattern with nothing. With it being so crappy over the past two and a half months, it's hard to argue against persistence. If we had already had one or two moderate, area-wide events this winter, I would be more excited about the upcoming window. When you hit mid-February, and have had not even a moderate area-wide event, it's hard to imagine that everything will just turnaround at such a late time. All we can do is hope. And stop people from creating storm threads 10 days out. That is ridiculous behavior, something I don't recall happening as much in previous winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro punts the Vday sys at least there is no continuity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro punts the Vday sys at least there is no continuity What's it do with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro has the Vday storm, just scoots it off the SE shore. About half the GEFS members do the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro punts the Vday sys at least there is no continuity Honestly, no surprise. The entire thing is 100% dependent on the cutter next week leaving something behind @ 500. That won't be resolved for probably 3+ days. My hunch is it does because of the way its evolved on various progs. As the cutter wraps up and starts pulling NW, a vort dives down from the pac nw and joins the party in the cutter's wake. When it's just a single little lagging piece it usually don't work. There's seems to be a good amount of energy to work with but what the heck do i know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro has a weak coastal at 240hrs (17th), but appears to have a pretty different solution after the v-day storm than the GFS. Euro has this northern stream low on the 15th and 16th which is pretty much absent on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS might be brewing something decent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS might be brewing something decent? I saw the energy hanging back and a vort dropping and felt pretty good. The rest of it will evolve in many forms but without the kicker to start it off we're fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And the gfs seems to thing a 50-50 might be available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I saw the energy hanging back and a vort dropping and felt pretty good. The rest of it will evolve in many forms but without the kicker to start it off we're fooked. Has a better look overall...probably won't do it..but better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And the gfs seems to thing a 50-50 might be available. Yeah, better than 12z...just need it to be real and trend stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Has a better look overall...probably won't do it..but better than 12z Absolutely. It's still going inland verbatim but that's nothing to worry about....yet.... I just want to have the globals lock into the fact that the storm exists. One bright spot is no pos low in the gl area to screw it all up. I'm standing by my early statement. This is our best chance in a long long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Absolutely. It's still going inland verbatim but that's nothing to worry about....yet.... I just want to have the globals lock into the fact that the storm exists. One bright spot is no pos low in the gl area to screw it all up. I'm standing by my early statement. This is our best chance in a long long time. Transfers right over us. Congrats New England I'm guessing. But again, I know this is not probably going to be the final solution. Nice to have a storm on the map that has somewhat of a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 take the euro and gfs blend and you have a great storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro weeklies just came in MUCH colder than the previous run...FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Transfers right over us. Congrats New England I'm guessing. But again, I know this is not probably going to be the final solution. Nice to have a storm on the map that has somewhat of a chance. It did and it sure could but I'm pretty interested. 500 look better. Vort is much better even though the track is too close. A lot hinges on the position of the cutter once it gets to the maritimes. It's slides just a hair too quick but we're talking inches of space miles into the future. Slow that down a bit and we have a real storm. If it holds another couple of runs I'll post the 5H side-by-sides. Just putting 12-18 next to each other is a move in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 apps runner with late transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What timeframe are you guys talking about? V-Day or 240hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I am not wasting time on specifics at this point but this signal from the 12z GEFS is something we have not seen in a long time. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12324.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 vday looks like another perfect way to screw us and hit ppl north. maybe we just need to get those all out of the way before we get ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I am not wasting time on specifics at this point but this signal from the 12z GEFS is something we have not seen in a long time. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12324.gif that's last night's 3-day event i think. lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 that's last night's 3-day event i think. lock it up. well... its not just one point in time, if you look at basically 260 hours on it looks about like that the entire time. What that says to me is the model is having trouble keying on exactly what SW to amplify and details of timing but that we have a nice window where things are favorable. At this point I am thrilled to have that even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The storm on the GFS has the day after Christmas look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 well... its not just one point in time, if you look at basically 260 hours on it looks about like that the entire time. What that says to me is the model is having trouble keying on exactly what SW to amplify and details of timing but that we have a nice window where things are favorable. At this point I am thrilled to have that even. i actually don't take anything in that range at all seriously but it's better than a torch i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 i actually don't take anything in that range at all seriously but it's better than a torch i guess. To me I have higher confidence then I normally would because it fits with the progression of where we are going in this pattern, plus the MJO phase, and the time of year, especially in a nina type pattern. The models are simply starting to show what I would expect given the signals. I guess I just see the ensembles as validation for what I was already expecting. I was a little quick, thought it would be Feb 5-15th and instead it looks like may be Feb 15-25 but either way I think we do get a window of hope before the door slams shut on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro weeklies have strong west based -nao along with a moderate -ao from week 2 to end of run(feb 18-mar10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro weeklies have strong west based -nao along with a moderate -ao from week 2 to end of run(feb 18-mar10) That would match the D+11 GFS superensemble forecast that Wes posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro weeklies have strong west based -nao along with a moderate -ao from week 2 to end of run(feb 18-mar10) Lord Jesus. Hallelujah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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