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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Fozz

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it is pretty...just glancing looks like 4-6" for DC proper with precip issues early and 6-10" for Northern and western burbs...silly to parse temp profiles right now or even hug any solution this far out, but it is nice to see a snowstorm

 

Looks a bit more than 4 to 6, but at this range, who cares.  It's a sweet set up.

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500 loop looks really really good for us. Nice vort pass. Decent confluence up north. This is an ok "classic" look for us. 

Wow...500 even closes off a bit.  Takes a Roanoke to St. Mary's track.  That's a touch far north at the end for a perfect 500 pass for DC/Balt, but it's pretty good.  

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Looks great but this thing has been all over the place.

 

It has but the goal posts have been set for the most part. We just need to hope things trend toward being inside the uprights sill = accum snow. I'm pretty confident in the streak ending here but I'm not a fool either. 

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I think just hoping for a potential modest snow event is all we should be doing now...talking about warning criteria snows 5-6 days out is a little silly imo...I think it is good to still broad brush the pattern and potential a bit

 

Eh, that's just, what, 4-6 inches? That's what I want. You are probably right to be hoping for more like 2-4, but I want to cash one in (low end warning criteria).

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based on one run 5 days out?...ok.....I mean this storm has been on the radar and models for a while now but there is still a lot of uncertainty about formation, track, transfer, precip issues, etc...I seriously dont get it

 

Yup.  This looks like the best threat out of them all so far.  It's going to go back to looking horrible a few times.  But I'm all in.

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It has but the goal posts have been set for the most part. We just need to hope things trend toward being inside the uprights sill = accum snow. I'm pretty confident in the streak ending here but I'm not a fool either.

I dislike the Euro huggers but I'd bet on it over the GFS. Hopefully it moves at 12z. One run doesn't make a snowstorm sadly.. Or we'd have a crapload of snow.

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