Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro punts the Vday sys at least there is no continuity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro punts the Vday sys at least there is no continuity What's it do with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro has the Vday storm, just scoots it off the SE shore. About half the GEFS members do the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro punts the Vday sys at least there is no continuity Honestly, no surprise. The entire thing is 100% dependent on the cutter next week leaving something behind @ 500. That won't be resolved for probably 3+ days. My hunch is it does because of the way its evolved on various progs. As the cutter wraps up and starts pulling NW, a vort dives down from the pac nw and joins the party in the cutter's wake. When it's just a single little lagging piece it usually don't work. There's seems to be a good amount of energy to work with but what the heck do i know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro has a weak coastal at 240hrs (17th), but appears to have a pretty different solution after the v-day storm than the GFS. Euro has this northern stream low on the 15th and 16th which is pretty much absent on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS might be brewing something decent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS might be brewing something decent? I saw the energy hanging back and a vort dropping and felt pretty good. The rest of it will evolve in many forms but without the kicker to start it off we're fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And the gfs seems to thing a 50-50 might be available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I saw the energy hanging back and a vort dropping and felt pretty good. The rest of it will evolve in many forms but without the kicker to start it off we're fooked. Has a better look overall...probably won't do it..but better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And the gfs seems to thing a 50-50 might be available. Yeah, better than 12z...just need it to be real and trend stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Has a better look overall...probably won't do it..but better than 12z Absolutely. It's still going inland verbatim but that's nothing to worry about....yet.... I just want to have the globals lock into the fact that the storm exists. One bright spot is no pos low in the gl area to screw it all up. I'm standing by my early statement. This is our best chance in a long long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Absolutely. It's still going inland verbatim but that's nothing to worry about....yet.... I just want to have the globals lock into the fact that the storm exists. One bright spot is no pos low in the gl area to screw it all up. I'm standing by my early statement. This is our best chance in a long long time. Transfers right over us. Congrats New England I'm guessing. But again, I know this is not probably going to be the final solution. Nice to have a storm on the map that has somewhat of a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 take the euro and gfs blend and you have a great storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro weeklies just came in MUCH colder than the previous run...FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Transfers right over us. Congrats New England I'm guessing. But again, I know this is not probably going to be the final solution. Nice to have a storm on the map that has somewhat of a chance. It did and it sure could but I'm pretty interested. 500 look better. Vort is much better even though the track is too close. A lot hinges on the position of the cutter once it gets to the maritimes. It's slides just a hair too quick but we're talking inches of space miles into the future. Slow that down a bit and we have a real storm. If it holds another couple of runs I'll post the 5H side-by-sides. Just putting 12-18 next to each other is a move in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What timeframe are you guys talking about? V-Day or 240hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I am not wasting time on specifics at this point but this signal from the 12z GEFS is something we have not seen in a long time. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12324.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 vday looks like another perfect way to screw us and hit ppl north. maybe we just need to get those all out of the way before we get ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I am not wasting time on specifics at this point but this signal from the 12z GEFS is something we have not seen in a long time. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12324.gif that's last night's 3-day event i think. lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 that's last night's 3-day event i think. lock it up. well... its not just one point in time, if you look at basically 260 hours on it looks about like that the entire time. What that says to me is the model is having trouble keying on exactly what SW to amplify and details of timing but that we have a nice window where things are favorable. At this point I am thrilled to have that even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The storm on the GFS has the day after Christmas look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 well... its not just one point in time, if you look at basically 260 hours on it looks about like that the entire time. What that says to me is the model is having trouble keying on exactly what SW to amplify and details of timing but that we have a nice window where things are favorable. At this point I am thrilled to have that even. i actually don't take anything in that range at all seriously but it's better than a torch i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 i actually don't take anything in that range at all seriously but it's better than a torch i guess. To me I have higher confidence then I normally would because it fits with the progression of where we are going in this pattern, plus the MJO phase, and the time of year, especially in a nina type pattern. The models are simply starting to show what I would expect given the signals. I guess I just see the ensembles as validation for what I was already expecting. I was a little quick, thought it would be Feb 5-15th and instead it looks like may be Feb 15-25 but either way I think we do get a window of hope before the door slams shut on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro weeklies have strong west based -nao along with a moderate -ao from week 2 to end of run(feb 18-mar10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro weeklies have strong west based -nao along with a moderate -ao from week 2 to end of run(feb 18-mar10) That would match the D+11 GFS superensemble forecast that Wes posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro weeklies have strong west based -nao along with a moderate -ao from week 2 to end of run(feb 18-mar10) Lord Jesus. Hallelujah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro weeklies have strong west based -nao along with a moderate -ao from week 2 to end of run(feb 18-mar10) If we can get a -nao I feel very good we cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If we can get a -nao I feel very good we cash in. It's been showing up in the lr in various forms for a week. Mostly east based and transient for the most part. It's crazy when you look @ the graph from dec 1st through today. Never above or below 1sd except for a small period in the middle of dec when it was a good bit negative. The pac killed it though. It was a torch. Now it's firmly in place from hr 300 through the end of the run on the 18z gfs. Right smack dab over the middle of gl. And it doesn't run away like a scared mouse either. If we can't get a damn miller a to run the coast with split flow, +pna, pv nearby, and a freekin 540dm ridge over gl then I'm telling you, someone sold our souls without asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think the GFS might give us a blizzard for Feb 18-19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 sorry, jus not cold enough for Feb 18-19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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