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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Fozz

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psuhoffman storm 2.0?

 

MDstorm

I have not really gotten a feel for which SW is likely to be "the one" yet but a setup I really do like keeps popping up in the 18-20th time range.  That period bears watching.  There are some chances before that also that could do the trick as well.  This is all still way out there in time so its hard to get specific yet, but I think we will have several chances over a 10 day period and its at least a 50/50 shot in my mind that we cash in one one of them. 

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I have not really gotten a feel for which SW is likely to be "the one" yet but a setup I really do like keeps popping up in the 18-20th time range.  That period bears watching.  There are some chances before that also that could do the trick as well.  This is all still way out there in time so its hard to get specific yet, but I think we will have several chances over a 10 day period and its at least a 50/50 shot in my mind that we cash in one one of them. 

 

by the way hoffman....this might be a northern stream event but the Gulf low isnt exactly not there

 

P6_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

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by the way hoffman....this might be a northern stream event but the Gulf low isnt exactly not there

 

P6_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

 

it's quite a bit like boxing day 11 with a pretend miller a that's really a miller b

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But 12z screams split flow though. Dry isn't going to be the problem if we want to break the worst streak any snowlover in our area has even been subject to. 

 

Dry is the usual problem.  I know somebody will throw up the two anomalous warm ups/cold front rains, but the reality is that most of the time from mid Dec on, we would have been cold enough during a real precip event to get snow, or at least some frozen variety. 7 of 10 real precip events (0.1 or more) will be frozen in our area during the winter.  The problem is, or has been 3 of the past 5 years, we can't get any real precip events.

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I hate 24 hour panels. Is there lp near the lakes screwing things up or is it a more consolidated system? 

 

i said.. maybe in the other thread./. the main 500 low goes to our north. it's possible it could shift i suppose. but verbatim there is basically no snow south of the pa/md border

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GFS now borderline for western burbs on 2/11 frontal event....the torch may never happen

 

I'm not sure a torch will happen but am reasonable confident about above normal temps and think the only hope for the western burbs for the 2/11 event would probably be freezing rain but even then.  I don't see the air as being a fresh cold air mass. 

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Verbatim the gfs isn't really eye candy for valentines day but it's still a very legit shot at breaking our streak. Maybe the ns stays the F out of the way this time instead of constantly figuring out a way to screw us. Much to be resolved but I'll never complain about a decent vort coming out of the sw in this type of overall 5H setup.

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not you or wes...but I definitely have run across verbage pimping the upcoming warmth.,.,perhaps torch wasnt fair...im just not sure it will be very significant or long lasting

 

yeah.. only really maybe 1 or two suites a few days ago really pumped in the warmth ala last week but overall everything seems pretty subdued. not sure we'll put up a lot of big negs but have a decent start there.

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