Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12z held the energy back again. Still messy but far from a dead rat. I honestly think this is a pretty good chance here. Prob not anything big or major but getting the skunk off worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like we actually have a shot at some snow.yeah still not great but the low is going south.. reacharound! the models suck at that range anyway so anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 New GFS already much different at day 5. I think that uncertainty will continue for awhile. Looks like it likes rain for the vday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 too many threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yeah still not great but the low is going south.. reacharound! the models suck at that range anyway so anything is possible. Being persistent pays off, one of these storms have to give us 2". It's been like 2,000 days since we have seen 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'll bet there will be a surprise with this somewhere. Whether that's DC, Balt, ne Maryland, whether it's front end, back side, I don't know, but i'll bet it happens. I'm out, so don't think this is just some weenie post. I think the possible surprise is not so much us getting snow but SNE getting screwed. I know they all think its a done deal but they could bust badly on the low end. Maybe the snow will help them get over their AFC championship loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think that uncertainty will continue for awhile. Looks like it likes rain for the vday storm. It does wes but there is almost zero continuity on how the energy behind the cutter is handled. Anything is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We're in "bidness"......something to keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like rain-to-snow on the GFS? I'm of course hoping for snow, but I've also got Mumford tix for that night in Fairfax...don't really want to drive around the Beltway in snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We're in "bidness"......something to keep watching.yeah north of the mason dixon. but that wont stop us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 too many threads Agreed why not close a few of them and make one new one for all the threats over the next few weeks. If anything looks likely you can break it into a new thread when it get's within 2 or 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like rain-to-snow on the GFS? I'm of course hoping for snow, but I've also got Mumford tix for that night in Fairfax...don't really want to drive around the Beltway in snow... Nevermind...rain to colder rain. But it's closer. At least it rains on Boston too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I killed the VDay thread. We need to wait till we're like 4 days out or something. Silly to have a thread for every fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nevermind...rain to colder rain. But it's closer. At least it rains on Boston too. But a vort that doesn't even exist yet goes right overhead. Limited to no ns influence with this for now. We're a 100 mile shift in the vort pass to get a nice event. I'm booking it. There is no doubt in my mind that this is our best shot in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Agreed why not close a few of them and make one new one for all the threats over the next few weeks. If anything looks likely you can break it into a new thread when it get's within 2 or 3 days. I think there should be a rule about how soon you can start a thread for an individual storm. I'd lean towards 3 or 4 days out. The day 5 plus threads just clutter the board and almost never work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 But a vort that doesn't even exist yet goes right overhead. Limited to no ns influence with this for now. We're a 100 mile shift in the vort pass to get a nice event. I'm booking it. There is no doubt in my mind that this is our best shot in a long time. If I've been following Wes's posts correctly, he's forecasting an epic mid-February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If I've been following Wes's posts correctly, he's forecasting an epic mid-February. Or he'll stop posting here since we all twist his words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If I've been following Wes's posts correctly, he's forecasting an epic mid-February. And basketball sized flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If I've been following Wes's posts correctly, he's forecasting an epic mid-February. The D+11 looks pretty good but still only has about 3 out of 10 analogs giving us snow. It's just that now if we get a storm it has a lot more potential for give us over 2 inches. It's the best pattern this year but no Feb 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS has the 17th/18th snowstorm. Very nice setup out west...naso good Atlantic side. To more accurately paraphrase Wes (and others), the pattern is certainly looking good for the mid-month period and the GFS seems to be picking up that potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The D+11 looks pretty good but still only has about 3 out of 10 analogs giving us snow. It's just that now if we get a storm it has a lot more potential for give us over 2 inches. It's the best pattern this year but no Feb 2010. Feast or famine...it should still be possible for us to get a serviceable pattern that can deliver moderate (2-6") snow events with reliability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS has the 17th/18th snowstorm. Very nice setup out west...naso good Atlantic side. To more accurately paraphrase Wes (and others), the pattern is certainly looking good for the mid-month period and the GFS seems to be picking up that potential. GFS has showed this signal for the past 5 days in LALA land at least 1-2 runs a day something similar has popped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The pac is looking about as good as it can get all things considered. Pretty stable pattern for the entire 15 day run. I will start believing in black magic if this doesn't give us some dam snow. Run the loop. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=gfs&cycle=12&area=npac¶m=500_vort_ht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think there should be a rule about how soon you can start a thread for an individual storm. I'd lean towards 3 or 4 days out. The day 5 plus threads just clutter the board and almost never work. You've just taken away 90% of Ji's life purpose. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think there should be a rule about how soon you can start a thread for an individual storm. I'd lean towards 3 or 4 days out. The day 5 plus threads just clutter the board and almost never work. It is amazing how much sense you make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Very good signal for the 17th/18th storm on the GEFS. Unfortunately it's an Apps runner. Mean isn't great for the V-day storm, but about half the members have a storm that gives us some snow. Most of the rest don't have a storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm bumping this because it was a good post you might be right, and we could get through this period without much to show for it, but isn't it nice to have an stj again, and to see the trough digging to the south and west of us so it is at least possible to get an amplifying system to track just to our southeast versus needing some crazy northern branch interaction or a super clipper to somehow pull off a miracle? We always need a little luck, we have wasted plenty of great patterns. People remember 2001/02 as being aweful and it was but even that winter had a 10 day period that was a really nice setup in December and early January but was wasted. We had 3 really good chances, one ended up supressed just to our south, the second just never came together and ended up a mess and 2-3" for our area, and the last one phased a bit too early and ended up just north of us, PSU got 13". If one of those three had worked out, we wouldnt remember that year as being so awful. Luck has a lot to do with it, even in a good pattern. But I will take my chances on this upcoming pattern over the crap we have been dealing with the last 2 years, that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Very good signal for the 17th/18th storm on the GEFS. Unfortunately it's an Apps runner. Mean isn't great for the V-day storm, but about half the members have a storm that gives us some snow. Most of the rest don't have a storm at all. I am not that concerned with the exact details of the storm at this range. I like the signal still for the 18th storm. I think we will have some fresh cold air injected ahead of it following the V-day storm and if that system can get going up over the marritimes we have a window. I know everyone loves to harp on the south bias of the GFS, and it has had one in the past for sure, but it also sucks at picking up signficant details like CAD and other things that can end up causing a better solution for us. Many of our big snows I remember the GFS showing a wet not white solution from 10 days out, including Presidents day II, the late Feb 2005 storm, and even Feb 2010 for a run or two. Basically the models all have a "not very accurate" bias at that range, and just seeing the basic setup there is encouraging to me. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's probably the best PAC pattern we have seen since 1/2011...it just sucks that we probably need a great pattern just to get a modest event...but we are stuck in rotting Nina hell, so c'est la vie I agree completely, but the numbers don't lie, nina's and neutral after a nina are just flat awful for our area. Its not really fair to just ignore the influence the Nina pattern has though, that is a part of it, so having that huge negative working against us, means we need a lot of other factors to line up right to offset it. We are probably saying the same thing here. I am just following the evolution of this and going to hope for the best. I still think the 18th is our best shot. I think the Vday story is legit, and not a total crazy hail mary but it won't have any real cold in front to work with, so similar to the Jan 2011 storm it will require the perfect H5 track and the low to amplify at just the right time. The track is not far off from where it would need to be though so its a shot, but not a great one. Following that though, if we can get it to amplify up to our northeast, we will get a fresh injection of colder air, and have a window where odds favor confluence in the right place for us. It looks like the next storm might come in that window. Since we do not have a great atlantic pattern, the key is getting a storm to amplify and create a faux -nao type signal for a few days, then get the next system to come in during that window. If we had a real -nao block then this would be a VERY good pattern coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree completely, but the numbers don't lie, nina's and neutral after a nina are just flat awful for our area. Its not really fair to just ignore the influence the Nina pattern has though, that is a part of it, so having that huge negative working against us, means we need a lot of other factors to line up right to offset it. We are probably saying the same thing here. I am just following the evolution of this and going to hope for the best. I still think the 18th is our best shot. I think the Vday story is legit, and not a total crazy hail mary but it won't have any real cold in front to work with, so similar to the Jan 2011 storm it will require the perfect H5 track and the low to amplify at just the right time. The track is not far off from where it would need to be though so its a shot, but not a great one. Following that though, if we can get it to amplify up to our northeast, we will get a fresh injection of colder air, and have a window where odds favor confluence in the right place for us. It looks like the next storm might come in that window. Since we do not have a great atlantic pattern, the key is getting a storm to amplify and create a faux -nao type signal for a few days, then get the next system to come in during that window. If we had a real -nao block then this would be a VERY good pattern coming up. Unfortunately, there are a lot of "ifs" in that statement. At least we're not torching like last winter, which is good. We've had a couple of windows this winter where parts of the area have had minor events, but nothing area wide so far. With this next window, maybe we can get things more favorable - would love to see a moderate 3-5" event that starts in the early hours of the day, that everyone in our region can enjoy. Prior to last winter, such an event would seem reachable and reasonable, but last winter and this have left us cynical and feeling like we may as well be asking for a 12-24" snow event when we want a moderate 3-5" snowfall. So, I'm incredibly cynical, and wouldn't be shocked to come out of the next pattern with nothing. With it being so crappy over the past two and a half months, it's hard to argue against persistence. If we had already had one or two moderate, area-wide events this winter, I would be more excited about the upcoming window. When you hit mid-February, and have had not even a moderate area-wide event, it's hard to imagine that everything will just turnaround at such a late time. All we can do is hope. And stop people from creating storm threads 10 days out. That is ridiculous behavior, something I don't recall happening as much in previous winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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