Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 nyc to bos only get 4-8 from this storm with 12" for SE NY.. much better. do we get anything? I dont have the precip maps yet...only out to 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 do we get anything? I dont have the precip maps yet...only out to 168 ~.25+ DC and north. looks like mostly or all rain. snow maps dont have anything till the M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ~.25+ DC and north. looks like mostly or all rain. snow maps dont have anything till the M/D line still time to trend for it to give us no precip it sounds like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Why waste time with all of these mid-atlantic threads....the only thread we need is the bitter and angry thread. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 psuhoffman storm 2.0? MDstorm I have not really gotten a feel for which SW is likely to be "the one" yet but a setup I really do like keeps popping up in the 18-20th time range. That period bears watching. There are some chances before that also that could do the trick as well. This is all still way out there in time so its hard to get specific yet, but I think we will have several chances over a 10 day period and its at least a 50/50 shot in my mind that we cash in one one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I have not really gotten a feel for which SW is likely to be "the one" yet but a setup I really do like keeps popping up in the 18-20th time range. That period bears watching. There are some chances before that also that could do the trick as well. This is all still way out there in time so its hard to get specific yet, but I think we will have several chances over a 10 day period and its at least a 50/50 shot in my mind that we cash in one one of them. by the way hoffman....this might be a northern stream event but the Gulf low isnt exactly not there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 by the way hoffman....this might be a northern stream event but the Gulf low isnt exactly not there it's quite a bit like boxing day 11 with a pretend miller a that's really a miller b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Here is GGEM at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Here is GGEM at 180 we are going to have an event next week....just a matter of whether it goes to the west or not..probably some sort of miller B is most likely...not sure there will be HP to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 But 12z screams split flow though. Dry isn't going to be the problem if we want to break the worst streak any snowlover in our area has even been subject to. Dry is the usual problem. I know somebody will throw up the two anomalous warm ups/cold front rains, but the reality is that most of the time from mid Dec on, we would have been cold enough during a real precip event to get snow, or at least some frozen variety. 7 of 10 real precip events (0.1 or more) will be frozen in our area during the winter. The problem is, or has been 3 of the past 5 years, we can't get any real precip events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 European model now again has the valentines day storm. Not sure what the thermal structure looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 European model now again has the valentines day storm. Not sure what the thermal structure looks like. its cold at 850...not sure about surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 its cold at 850...not sure about surface I hate 24 hour panels. Is there lp near the lakes screwing things up or is it a more consolidated system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I hate 24 hour panels. Is there lp near the lakes screwing things up or is it a more consolidated system? i said.. maybe in the other thread./. the main 500 low goes to our north. it's possible it could shift i suppose. but verbatim there is basically no snow south of the pa/md border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS now borderline for western burbs on 2/11 frontal event....the torch may never happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS now borderline for western burbs on 2/11 frontal event....the torch may never happen The bowling ball coming out of the southwest is still there. I hope there enough in the way to keep it as far south as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS now borderline for western burbs on 2/11 frontal event....the torch may never happen I'm not sure a torch will happen but am reasonable confident about above normal temps and think the only hope for the western burbs for the 2/11 event would probably be freezing rain but even then. I don't see the air as being a fresh cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The storm next week on Allen's site has a 1002 low in Alabama and a massive 1012 high in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS now has a 988mb low over salisbury MD on the 2/13-14 storm...it runs inland and then transfers....i think all solutions are still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Verbatim the gfs isn't really eye candy for valentines day but it's still a very legit shot at breaking our streak. Maybe the ns stays the F out of the way this time instead of constantly figuring out a way to screw us. Much to be resolved but I'll never complain about a decent vort coming out of the sw in this type of overall 5H setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 was anyone forecasting a torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 massive snowstorm for central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 was anyone forecasting a torch? not you or wes...but I definitely have run across verbage pimping the upcoming warmth.,.,perhaps torch wasnt fair...im just not sure it will be very significant or long lasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 looks kinda similar to the euro but maybe a bit colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Next week looks fine for now. Many runs to go and lotsa things to pay attention to. I just hope the vd storm doesn't turn into an std. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 European model now again has the valentines day storm. Not sure what the thermal structure looks like. its cold at 850...not sure about surface Unfortunately the Euro Text Outputs aren't in range of the precip yet but at 12z Wednesday we're below freezing both on the surface and 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 looks kinda similar to the euro but maybe a bit colder and more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 was anyone forecasting a torch? I don't think I was but who knows how people interpret stuff. I was accused being an alarmist/hypster on CWG. That actually made me chuckle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 not you or wes...but I definitely have run across verbage pimping the upcoming warmth.,.,perhaps torch wasnt fair...im just not sure it will be very significant or long lasting yeah.. only really maybe 1 or two suites a few days ago really pumped in the warmth ala last week but overall everything seems pretty subdued. not sure we'll put up a lot of big negs but have a decent start there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 2/14 and 2/18 chances on the 18z GFS. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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