yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The pieces are still way in the air on that, gives us a fighting chance. Uh, no. What features are there? No cold air, no HP, L in the GL... its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Uh, no. What features are there? No cold air, no HP, L in the GL... its over Good thing this one changes every run, i still give it only 10% chance of 2", if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Uh, no. What features are there? No cold air, no HP, L in the GL... its over the low track starts far enough south at least. Depends on where the secondary starts (if there is any). Anywhere around the carolinas on south could be the rabbit we're looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The pieces are still way in the air on that, gives us a fighting chance. they are...no guarantee it will cut to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the low track starts far enough south at least. Depends on where the secondary starts (if there is any). Anywhere around the carolinas on south could be the rabbit we're looking for. Yeah it can't be completely written off for that reason Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 they are...no guarantee it will cut to the west Exactly, I mean it could be low percentile, my numbers are so low because its certainly not optimal, but we could escape with the pieces better where they are now irt what the gfs has. The euro solution with sfc pieces are preffered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i am guessing we never see snow again in our lifetimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 they are...no guarantee it will cut to the west It's far out in time too. Saying a nice bowling ball is definitely going to get dragged into the gutter by some ns low in fast flow is not smart. I'll probably regret saying this but....overall....it really does look like our first legit shot. Not verbatim of course but you know what I'm saying. Close off @ 5h a little later and escape any ns influence early on and there we have it. Now we just get to watch it change a bazillion times and have these same posts continue for days but discussing different problems. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am not sure how anybody can not like the pattern after V-day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am not sure how anybody can not like the pattern after V-day 6z was nice... 12z is cold and dry (borrowed from Phineas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 6z was nice... 12z is cold and dry (borrowed from Phineas) But 12z screams split flow though. Dry isn't going to be the problem if we want to break the worst streak any snowlover in our area has even been subject to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 But 12z screams split flow though. Dry isn't going to be the problem if we want to break the worst streak any snowlover in our area has even been subject to. I just want a 3-6" storm..I'm not really concerned about a sick, high yielding pattern....Just want one decent snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 But 12z screams split flow though. Dry isn't going to be the problem if we want to break the worst streak any snowlover in our area has even been subject to. Exactly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am not sure how anybody can not like the pattern after V-day because by then it has to be -15F below normal to accumulate snow.... if it snows at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just want a 3-6" storm..I'm not really concerned about a sick, high yielding pattern....Just want one decent snowfall You and me both man. A period that favors systems passing below us appears to be on tap. A quick and dirty fast moving wave through the tn valley and off the coast would do the trick. Amped up phasers are nice and all but way too much can go wrong. Let's break our horrific streak with something simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 because by then it has to be -15F below normal to accumulate snow.... if it snows at all. It's easy to get those departures in Feb. Give us a good vort pass and a modest hp to the n and it snows as readily as Ji cancelling winter. March 10th and beyond is much different tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just want a 3-6" storm..I'm not really concerned about a sick, high yielding pattern....Just want one decent snowfall You have high unrealistic expectations. We can't even get rain from a Gulf low going up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 because by then it has to be -15F below normal to accumulate snow.... if it snows at all. And because any good look will likely either break down completely or continue to be pushed far enough back that by the time the good pattern establishes itself it won't be able to overcome climo averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's easy to get those departures in Feb. Give us a good vort pass and a modest hp to the n and it snows as readily as Ji cancelling winter. March 10th and beyond is much different tho I don't know, it took a major SSW event and the PV taking a sight-seeing trip to Niagra Falls to get us two -15F days a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ha ha I would like to have all the snowlovers continue to despair this winter. However, the GFS is claiming there is some possibility of up to 1" QPF of non-rain over Presidents' Day weekend this year. At this moment the claim for DCA is yuck to rain and back to yuck. May any PDS II/III stay away from DCA. (now where did I put my flamethrower?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't know, it took a major SSW event and the PV taking a sight-seeing trip to Niagra Falls to get us two -15F days a couple weeks ago. Average highs and lows are higher on dec 5th than Feb 20th. And Feb record lows destroy december. Temps are not going to be our problem as much as storm track. Get something on a good track with a cold continental high to our north and it snows as easy as making popcorn. Arctic air isn't necessary. How long it sticks around is a different discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You have high unrealistic expectations. We can't even get rain from a Gulf low going up the coast Oh stop it, you are being intellectually dishonest right now with your continued posts about this "gulf low" thing. You know our problem is the northern stream. The gulf low is weak and suppressed initially by the northern branch, then once it reaches a certain latitude it phases and goes BOOM. You know darn well how that is a crap situation for us. Our big storms come when the southern stream is on sterroids and just forces its way right up into established cold with little interference from the northern branch, OR when we get phasing early on in the process with a nice -NAO block and cold air stuck in so that the storm is forced to secondary to our south and east. Those are our two scenarios where we have a high prob of significant snow. Most other setups we need a wing and a prayer and hope for a fluke. This type of setup where the STJ and northern branch are playing a complicated intereaction game and then phase late is usually not good for us and this is the normal result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Average highs and lows are higher on dec 5th than Feb 20th. And Feb record lows destroy december. Temps are not going to be our problem as much as storm track. Get something on a good track with a cold continental high to our north and it snows as easy as making popcorn. Arctic air isn't necessary. How long it sticks around is a different discussion. I liked the Ji analogy better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I know the last 2 full years have been just awful and its hard to keep a glass is half full outlook, but I am actually excited about the pattern evolving after the storm early next week. It's not going to be bitterly cold, but what good has that done for us anyways? The STJ is becoming active again, the MJO is moving into phases that correlate to snow chances for our area, and like magic we are starting to see this reflected in the long range model output with moisture to our south and high pressure to our north. I don't care past 120 hours if a particular storm is a miss or not, its just the setup is promising. Yea, one run might miss us with each chance, but there are 3-4 opportunities coming where we have a legit chance to get some real snow. We have to get a bit lucky with the track and timing but this is a pattern where we dont need a hail mary to win the game. I am on board and thing we have a very good chance to break the 2" streak in DC before the end of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I know the last 2 full years have been just awful and its hard to keep a glass is half full outlook, but I am actually excited about the pattern evolving after the storm early next week. It's not going to be bitterly cold, but what good has that done for us anyways? The STJ is becoming active again, the MJO is moving into phases that correlate to snow chances for our area, and like magic we are starting to see this reflected in the long range model output with moisture to our south and high pressure to our north. I don't care past 120 hours if a particular storm is a miss or not, its just the setup is promising. Yea, one run might miss us with each chance, but there are 3-4 opportunities coming where we have a legit chance to get some real snow. We have to get a bit lucky with the track and timing but this is a pattern where we dont need a hail mary to win the game. I am on board and thing we have a very good chance to break the 2" streak in DC before the end of the winter. There needs to be a "like" button for posts like these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I know the last 2 full years have been just awful and its hard to keep a glass is half full outlook, but I am actually excited about the pattern evolving after the storm early next week. It's not going to be bitterly cold, but what good has that done for us anyways? The STJ is becoming active again, the MJO is moving into phases that correlate to snow chances for our area, and like magic we are starting to see this reflected in the long range model output with moisture to our south and high pressure to our north. I don't care past 120 hours if a particular storm is a miss or not, its just the setup is promising. Yea, one run might miss us with each chance, but there are 3-4 opportunities coming where we have a legit chance to get some real snow. We have to get a bit lucky with the track and timing but this is a pattern where we dont need a hail mary to win the game. I am on board and thing we have a very good chance to break the 2" streak in DC before the end of the winter. psuhoffman storm 2.0? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I know the last 2 full years have been just awful and its hard to keep a glass is half full outlook, but I am actually excited about the pattern evolving after the storm early next week. It's not going to be bitterly cold, but what good has that done for us anyways? The STJ is becoming active again, the MJO is moving into phases that correlate to snow chances for our area, and like magic we are starting to see this reflected in the long range model output with moisture to our south and high pressure to our north. I don't care past 120 hours if a particular storm is a miss or not, its just the setup is promising. Yea, one run might miss us with each chance, but there are 3-4 opportunities coming where we have a legit chance to get some real snow. We have to get a bit lucky with the track and timing but this is a pattern where we dont need a hail mary to win the game. I am on board and thing we have a very good chance to break the 2" streak in DC before the end of the winter. ^^^This!!! Thanks for some positive and constructive thoughts here. It's been kind of aggravating with some of the really negative posts in here lately, though I can understand how frustrating it's been. I really like the overall look of the time period around Presidents' Day. The GFS and its ensemble mean have been pretty consistent about this for some time now. As the bolded part above from what psuhoffman said...ignoring the specific details beyond several days out, the set-up looks nice. Of course, remains to be seen if it happens, but it's not like last year at this time which basically had almost zero hope for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro looks much better than 00z. Has a gulf low and a nice vort at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro looks much better than 00z. Has a gulf low and a nice vort at 168. nyc to bos only get 4-8 from this storm with 12" for SE NY.. much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 nyc to bos only get 4-8 from this storm with 12" for SE NY.. much better. the trend is our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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