swimmatte Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 European model now again has the valentines day storm. Not sure what the thermal structure looks like. its cold at 850...not sure about surface Unfortunately the Euro Text Outputs aren't in range of the precip yet but at 12z Wednesday we're below freezing both on the surface and 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 looks kinda similar to the euro but maybe a bit colder and more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 was anyone forecasting a torch? I don't think I was but who knows how people interpret stuff. I was accused being an alarmist/hypster on CWG. That actually made me chuckle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 not you or wes...but I definitely have run across verbage pimping the upcoming warmth.,.,perhaps torch wasnt fair...im just not sure it will be very significant or long lasting yeah.. only really maybe 1 or two suites a few days ago really pumped in the warmth ala last week but overall everything seems pretty subdued. not sure we'll put up a lot of big negs but have a decent start there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 2/14 and 2/18 chances on the 18z GFS. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Next week looks fine for now. Many runs to go and lotsa things to pay attention to. I just hope the vd storm doesn't turn into an std. all hangs on the low that pushes the front through. If it sets up as a 50/50 then our best chance can happen. Longs ways away but its there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 2/14 and 2/18 chances on the 18z GFS. Better than nothing. Don't forget about the .01 we get on the 16th, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 all hangs on the low that pushes the front through. If it sets up as a 50/50 then our best chance can happen. Longs ways away but its there If the face of a devastating blizzard within driving distance while we have cold light rain...there is quite a bit to be optimistic about. Just looking at the 500 panels from 204hrs on looks great. And it's not the first time it's been advertised. If we can't break the streak this month then I don't know what to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 legit snowstorm for 2/18 Dumps .46 on us with -2 2ms and -3 850's then immediately drops to -10 and -16 on the next frame. Obviously la la land but it's nice seeing those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 massive snowstorm for central PA I think we'd see backend with that too. Maybe front end also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 legit snowstorm for 2/18 Something in my gut says 2/18 might be the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The 2/18-22 period will work out for you guys if we carve out that 50-50 low / strong East Canadian PV setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Something in my gut says 2/18 might be the one. PSUHOFFMANSTORM v2 ! I am officially bought in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 PSUHOFFMANSTORM v2 ! I am officially bought in. Naming another storm is a terrible terrible idea. Permanent banworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yes...not to mention HM and I were chatting about the 2/8 and 2/20 dates over a month ago and I mentioned those exact dates in this forum....admittedly for me it was a very very low confidence, mostly analog based WAG.....anyway..naming storms is stupid and throwing a date out there so one can be "first" is also silly....but......I was 1st...lol One of the best winter outlooks and analog-based outlooks I've ever seen for DC / Mid Atlantic. Very impressive! "Winter ending in Feb" idea by some is a major fail lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I like the setup and think we have a legit chance. That should be enough. We don't need to name storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yes...not to mention HM and I were chatting about the 2/8 and 2/20 dates over a month ago and I mentioned those exact dates in this forum....admittedly for me it was a very very low confidence, mostly analog based WAG.....anyway..naming storms is stupid and throwing a date out there so one can be "first" is also silly....but......I was 1st...lol 1/24/14..... lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yes...not to mention HM and I were chatting about the 2/8 and 2/20 dates over a month ago and I mentioned those exact dates in this forum....admittedly for me it was a very very low confidence, mostly analog based WAG.....anyway..naming storms is stupid and throwing a date out there so one can be "first" is also silly....but......I was 1st...lol Both of u are infinitely more skilled then me with long range forecasting. I have very little skill outside 2 weeks besides knowing a west based niño and +pdo setup is sweet for us. I'm getting better at mjo stuff but still not good. Your "hunches" have been excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not taking away anything from anybody with this statement but anybody with modest knowledge about what the ma need for snow can identify this pattern as one that can produce. It showed up on models over a week ago. It's not a tough one to roll dice on at all. Zwyts' seasonal and subsequent analysis picked it out well before models. Im impressed regardless of whether it was luck or skill. I'll hedge with both but an emphasis on skill and knowledge of our difficult snow climo. The folks that cancelled winter within the last 2 weeks don't have the skill or knowledge to make lr calls because there were quite a few hints and clues saying it wasn't over. Last year was just about over by this time. We might not get a slushy inch this year still but I wouldn't bet any money on that. For now the odds are against a shutout to close the season. I personally want 99% of the peeps in the contest to bust low including me. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The 2/18-22 period will work out for you guys if we carve out that 50-50 low / strong East Canadian PV setup. Make it happen HM. . You've been pretty good with the threat periods/STJ re-birth and I remember you saying that the initial threats in this period would be Northeast of here first (congrats NE). Let's bring this home later this month. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I like the setup and think we have a legit chance. That should be enough. We don't need to name storms. Without this epic monster that is (hopefully) going to clobber NE, I'd be really skeptical, as we all know that this pattern we've been in is crap-ola. Maybe this storm gives real hope to a legit pattern change and turns a "decent pattern" into something good. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm already calling Feb 5-10 give or take a week next year. I'm a fricken wizard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm already calling Feb 5-10 give or take a week next year. I'm a fricken wizard. Please tell me you are going to CT for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Please tell me you are going to CT for this storm. Naa, briefly considered a train to Boston but its my bday Sat and I already ditch my g/f's plans too often for weather. Plus I've never totally understood the fun in watching it snow where I don't live unless it's the mtns or something. Snow is an IMBY sport as far as I'm concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Naa, briefly considered a train to Boston but its my bday Sat and I already ditch my g/f's plans too often for weather. Plus I've never totally understood the fun in watching it snow where I don't live unless it's the mtns or something. Snow is an IMBY sport as far as I'm concerned Taking the train from RIC to DC into BOS should get there about 8 a.m fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Naa, briefly considered a train to Boston but its my bday Sat and I already ditch my g/f's plans too often for weather. Plus I've never totally understood the fun in watching it snow where I don't live unless it's the mtns or something. Snow is an IMBY sport as far as I'm concerned Usually agreed, but when some place there can get 3' with 60 mph winds that is something that calls for a road trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Usually agreed, but when some place there can get 3' with 60 mph winds that is something that calls for a road trip.True. If it wasn't this weekend and I wasn't going on a three week weather vacation already (which I hear about basically every time I say we can go to Europe next year)... perhaps. I don't really like Boston for some reason. I would however love to see a Jan 2005 on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 True. If it wasn't this weekend and I wasn't going on a three week weather vacation already (which I hear about basically every time I say we can go to Europe next year)... perhaps. I don't really like Boston for some reason. I would however love to see a Jan 2005 on the Cape. I was thinking Worcester would be a great place, but trying to convince my wife to drive 8 hours to see a massive snowstorm is like me trying to send her to Nieman Marcus with no money. You would rather go on a 3 week severe trip than see a massive, possibly historic snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I was thinking Worcester would be a great place, but trying to convince my wife to drive 8 hours to see a massive snowstorm is like me trying to send her to Nieman Marcus with no money. You would rather go on a 3 week severe trip than see a massive, possibly historic snowstorm?Not event close. You haven't lived until you've seen a sculpted supercell, listened to its hail roar then watched it drop a tornado. Even if you spend 20 days finding just one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This is by far the best D+11 of the season and it's not even close. This is the kind of pattern where we can get a decent snowstorm during the 7 day window centered on Feb 17th. This is an improvement from yesterday in that we now are getting low heights south of nova scotia extending backwards towards us. NO wonder the models are picking up on so many threats. We finally are getting Bob's, Matt's and HMs better than average pattern. Note how we fainally have above normal heights across the Baffin bay area and canada. That makes it much easier for the southern stream to be the main player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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