Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 are you buying this or do you think its too early? maybe a small event?...Is it really that hard to get a 3" snowstorm in DC?...I mean that would bring DCA to 5" on the season...is it that unreasonable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The vort track is pretty classic. Hopefully it's not the euro being too amped. the euro has a better atlantic than the GFS but looks transient still....it's pretty far off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 maybe a small event?...Is it really that hard to get a 3" snowstorm in DC?...I mean that would bring DCA to 5" on the season...is it that unreasonable? im starting to think we'll break the streak before the mo is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Lol. Day eight. How can you realistically ask anyone if they are buying it? Saying that with confidence is almost admitting you are clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 recent clippers...appetizer or dessert? sounds like they may have been just an appetizer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Lol. Day eight. How can you realistically ask anyone if they are buying it? Saying that with confidence is almost admitting you are clueless. it's possible to buy a larger scale pattern change, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 im starting to think we'll break the streak before the mo is over. i think any of us would take 2-4" right now even if snow to rain or rain to snow or the dummy end of a bigger storm for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 50/50 and the -NAO will end up weaker than modeled and the storm in the Southwest will ride up into the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 im starting to think we'll break the streak before the mo is over. Me too. We've got some chances coming up and we have the Ji miracle storm to start things off. Stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Euro ens mean is having none of our snowstorm. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Euro ens mean is having none of our snowstorm. Toss it. JMA has a big gulf low at 192 poised to come up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 JMA has a big gulf low at 192 poised to come up euro ens has precip meanding around to our se but nothing organized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 i think any of us would take 2-4" right now even if snow to rain or rain to snow or the dummy end of a bigger storm for SNE Southern stream getting active will give you a chance this month I think...as we discussed a few times recently. There looks to be another more favorable general pattern too coming up after mid-month as ensembles are fairly bullish on a -EPO developing which should reinforce the cold air supply...combine that with the active southern stream and I think there will probably be an event or two there before the clock ticks out on this winter. Without a classic -NAO block, it would probably be hard to get a huge event (though not impossible...see PDII)...but a moderate storm doesn't look like a reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Southern stream getting active will give you a chance this month I think...as we discussed a few times recently. There looks to be another more favorable general pattern too coming up after mid-month as ensembles are fairly bullish on a -EPO developing which should reinforce the cold air supply...combine that with the active southern stream and I think there will probably be an event or two there before the clock ticks out on this winter. Without a classic -NAO block, it would probably be hard to get a huge event (though not impossible...see PDII)...but a moderate storm doesn't look like a reach. i think any of us would take a moderate storm gladly...just get me to 50% of climo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 im starting to think we'll break the streak before the mo is over.I'm kinda with you on this. I mean yea, it's been an awful awful stretch but it's not like a more promising type of setup appeared out of nowhere. We've been talking about it for almost a week now. I've seen a lot of little things on the gfs that show an active and amplified pattern with some semblance of "cold enough" air to work with for days as have many others. The "if this then this" is in play (as always of course) because models are keying the lr off of a strong storm that hasn't even happened yet. It's been a bit a recurring theme with a strong storm that cuts and then a good period of cold following. This is the first one that passes east for the most part but the pattern afterwards is similar with one exception...a nice wet ss stream keeping things going instead of cold, dry, and dusty flakes in the wake. It sure would be nice for the majority in the snow contest to bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I'm kinda with you on this. I mean yea, it's been an awful awful stretch but it's not like a more promising type of setup appeared out of nowhere. We've been talking about it for almost a week now. I've seen a lot of little things on the gfs that show an active and amplified pattern with some semblance of "cold enough" air to work with for days as have many others. The "if this then this" is in play (as always of course) because models are keying the lr off of a strong storm that hasn't even happened yet. It's been a bit a recurring theme with a strong storm that cuts and then a good period of cold following. This is the first one that passes east for the most part but the pattern afterwards is similar with one exception...a nice wet ss stream keeping things going instead of cold, dry, and dusty flakes in the wake. It sure would be nice for the majority in the snow contest to bust low. I am going to win that one. With a -NAO making an appearance later on and if temps cooperate, that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Guess the Euro didn't have the next week snowstorm by the commentary or lack of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Guess the Euro didn't have the next week snowstorm by the commentary or lack of. Rain, and not as much of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I still like our chances after V-Day... its la-la land, but 252 onward would suggest numerous chances of good snows... granted it will likely change on the 12z run... but I am liking the time period after the 16th.... call it a gut feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I still like our chances after V-Day... its la-la land, but 252 onward would suggest numerous chances of good snows... granted it will likely change on the 12z run... but I am liking the time period after the 16th.... call it a gut feeling I hope you're right, Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I still like our chances after V-Day... its la-la land, but 252 onward would suggest numerous chances of good snows... granted it will likely change on the 12z run... but I am liking the time period after the 16th.... call it a gut feeling we're running out of windows. im pretty sure everyone is focusing on that one now. gut feelings for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 we're running out of windows. im pretty sure everyone is focusing on that one now. gut feelings for all. Zwyts will disagree ofc, but I really believe that the 16th to the end of Feb is likely our last chance of breaking out of our 2" streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Zwyts will disagree ofc, but I really believe that the 16th to the end of Feb is likely our last chance of breaking out of our 2" streak DC avg like 3.5" of snow after feb 15. just because it can snow doesn't mean it will... especially this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DC avg like 3.5" of snow after feb 15. just because it can snow doesn't mean it will... especially this year. Yes I know... its just the pattern APPEARED to look good... prob will be screwed anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z GFS still shows a storm signal with good gulf moisture for the 13-14th. Not sure what it's going to do with it though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z GFS still shows a storm signal with good gulf moisture for the 13-14th. Not sure what it's going to do with it though.. Low coming out of canada is going to phase early and suck it to the west of us. You don't even need to see the rest of the panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looks like it can still jump the coast in time to get sne again though so that's a relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z GFS still shows a storm signal with good gulf moisture for the 13-14th. Not sure what it's going to do with it though.. GFS will send us a V-Day present of heavy heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looks like it can still jump the coast in time to get sne again though so that's a relief. The pieces are still way in the air on that, gives us a fighting chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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