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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Fozz

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I hope it's all in liquid form on Thursday night, and that we get enough rain to wash away the ridiculous amount of salt and chemicals put down on the roads for our snow flurry events.  Tired of that crap getting on my car.

 

Couldn't have said it better myself.  The parking lot here at the museum looks like it has snow cover on it.

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The northern branch system blows our thermal profiles to hell before the southern system can begin to amplify.  Our only shot would be for the northern branch to weaken thus cause less ridging in front, and then have the southern system bomb out fast.  Its a super long shot as with less ridging from the northern branch we also have a more hostile environment for the stj to work with.  Either way its pick your poison. 

 

On a positive note I really think the better pattern that keeps popping up in the Feb 20th time period on GFS runs could be real.  The pattern evolution makes sense with the shortening wavelengths and with the MJO progression.  I thought we would get our last real shot around mid February but the MJO progression has been super slow, and perhaps now it is the last week of Feb and early March that may hold our one shot at something. 

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The northern branch system blows our thermal profiles to hell before the southern system can begin to amplify.  Our only shot would be for the northern branch to weaken thus cause less ridging in front, and then have the southern system bomb out fast.  Its a super long shot as with less ridging from the northern branch we also have a more hostile environment for the stj to work with.  Either way its pick your poison. 

 

On a positive note I really think the better pattern that keeps popping up in the Feb 20th time period on GFS runs could be real.  The pattern evolution makes sense with the shortening wavelengths and with the MJO progression.  I thought we would get our last real shot around mid February but the MJO progression has been super slow, and perhaps now it is the last week of Feb and early March that may hold our one shot at something. 

Winter is ending, folks. Once we are looking at early March to save us we are pretty much toast.

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If we can get the split flow the GFS keeps advertising, we have a small window  to get something even with a bad Atlantic...it might be into a rotting air mass, but that could be serviceable in early February

 

Models were pretty good with this setup from 10 days out....It probably wont help us except some front end maybe, but 40N might do pretty well

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one thing i learned from the last week is that weak clippers do nothing for me.  manitoba maulers...sure...but the ones we got, i will pass on...they are just too much of a nuisance in my opinion.  i don't know about you guys, but i'm looking forward to a week off from the clipper train.  maybe the pattern re-shuffles itself in the next week or so and we can get some better opportunities going forward.

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