Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't know, it took a major SSW event and the PV taking a sight-seeing trip to Niagra Falls to get us two -15F days a couple weeks ago. Average highs and lows are higher on dec 5th than Feb 20th. And Feb record lows destroy december. Temps are not going to be our problem as much as storm track. Get something on a good track with a cold continental high to our north and it snows as easy as making popcorn. Arctic air isn't necessary. How long it sticks around is a different discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You have high unrealistic expectations. We can't even get rain from a Gulf low going up the coast Oh stop it, you are being intellectually dishonest right now with your continued posts about this "gulf low" thing. You know our problem is the northern stream. The gulf low is weak and suppressed initially by the northern branch, then once it reaches a certain latitude it phases and goes BOOM. You know darn well how that is a crap situation for us. Our big storms come when the southern stream is on sterroids and just forces its way right up into established cold with little interference from the northern branch, OR when we get phasing early on in the process with a nice -NAO block and cold air stuck in so that the storm is forced to secondary to our south and east. Those are our two scenarios where we have a high prob of significant snow. Most other setups we need a wing and a prayer and hope for a fluke. This type of setup where the STJ and northern branch are playing a complicated intereaction game and then phase late is usually not good for us and this is the normal result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Average highs and lows are higher on dec 5th than Feb 20th. And Feb record lows destroy december. Temps are not going to be our problem as much as storm track. Get something on a good track with a cold continental high to our north and it snows as easy as making popcorn. Arctic air isn't necessary. How long it sticks around is a different discussion. I liked the Ji analogy better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I know the last 2 full years have been just awful and its hard to keep a glass is half full outlook, but I am actually excited about the pattern evolving after the storm early next week. It's not going to be bitterly cold, but what good has that done for us anyways? The STJ is becoming active again, the MJO is moving into phases that correlate to snow chances for our area, and like magic we are starting to see this reflected in the long range model output with moisture to our south and high pressure to our north. I don't care past 120 hours if a particular storm is a miss or not, its just the setup is promising. Yea, one run might miss us with each chance, but there are 3-4 opportunities coming where we have a legit chance to get some real snow. We have to get a bit lucky with the track and timing but this is a pattern where we dont need a hail mary to win the game. I am on board and thing we have a very good chance to break the 2" streak in DC before the end of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I know the last 2 full years have been just awful and its hard to keep a glass is half full outlook, but I am actually excited about the pattern evolving after the storm early next week. It's not going to be bitterly cold, but what good has that done for us anyways? The STJ is becoming active again, the MJO is moving into phases that correlate to snow chances for our area, and like magic we are starting to see this reflected in the long range model output with moisture to our south and high pressure to our north. I don't care past 120 hours if a particular storm is a miss or not, its just the setup is promising. Yea, one run might miss us with each chance, but there are 3-4 opportunities coming where we have a legit chance to get some real snow. We have to get a bit lucky with the track and timing but this is a pattern where we dont need a hail mary to win the game. I am on board and thing we have a very good chance to break the 2" streak in DC before the end of the winter. There needs to be a "like" button for posts like these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I know the last 2 full years have been just awful and its hard to keep a glass is half full outlook, but I am actually excited about the pattern evolving after the storm early next week. It's not going to be bitterly cold, but what good has that done for us anyways? The STJ is becoming active again, the MJO is moving into phases that correlate to snow chances for our area, and like magic we are starting to see this reflected in the long range model output with moisture to our south and high pressure to our north. I don't care past 120 hours if a particular storm is a miss or not, its just the setup is promising. Yea, one run might miss us with each chance, but there are 3-4 opportunities coming where we have a legit chance to get some real snow. We have to get a bit lucky with the track and timing but this is a pattern where we dont need a hail mary to win the game. I am on board and thing we have a very good chance to break the 2" streak in DC before the end of the winter. psuhoffman storm 2.0? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I know the last 2 full years have been just awful and its hard to keep a glass is half full outlook, but I am actually excited about the pattern evolving after the storm early next week. It's not going to be bitterly cold, but what good has that done for us anyways? The STJ is becoming active again, the MJO is moving into phases that correlate to snow chances for our area, and like magic we are starting to see this reflected in the long range model output with moisture to our south and high pressure to our north. I don't care past 120 hours if a particular storm is a miss or not, its just the setup is promising. Yea, one run might miss us with each chance, but there are 3-4 opportunities coming where we have a legit chance to get some real snow. We have to get a bit lucky with the track and timing but this is a pattern where we dont need a hail mary to win the game. I am on board and thing we have a very good chance to break the 2" streak in DC before the end of the winter. ^^^This!!! Thanks for some positive and constructive thoughts here. It's been kind of aggravating with some of the really negative posts in here lately, though I can understand how frustrating it's been. I really like the overall look of the time period around Presidents' Day. The GFS and its ensemble mean have been pretty consistent about this for some time now. As the bolded part above from what psuhoffman said...ignoring the specific details beyond several days out, the set-up looks nice. Of course, remains to be seen if it happens, but it's not like last year at this time which basically had almost zero hope for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro looks much better than 00z. Has a gulf low and a nice vort at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro looks much better than 00z. Has a gulf low and a nice vort at 168. nyc to bos only get 4-8 from this storm with 12" for SE NY.. much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 nyc to bos only get 4-8 from this storm with 12" for SE NY.. much better. the trend is our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 nyc to bos only get 4-8 from this storm with 12" for SE NY.. much better. do we get anything? I dont have the precip maps yet...only out to 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 do we get anything? I dont have the precip maps yet...only out to 168 ~.25+ DC and north. looks like mostly or all rain. snow maps dont have anything till the M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ~.25+ DC and north. looks like mostly or all rain. snow maps dont have anything till the M/D line still time to trend for it to give us no precip it sounds like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Why waste time with all of these mid-atlantic threads....the only thread we need is the bitter and angry thread. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 psuhoffman storm 2.0? MDstorm I have not really gotten a feel for which SW is likely to be "the one" yet but a setup I really do like keeps popping up in the 18-20th time range. That period bears watching. There are some chances before that also that could do the trick as well. This is all still way out there in time so its hard to get specific yet, but I think we will have several chances over a 10 day period and its at least a 50/50 shot in my mind that we cash in one one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I have not really gotten a feel for which SW is likely to be "the one" yet but a setup I really do like keeps popping up in the 18-20th time range. That period bears watching. There are some chances before that also that could do the trick as well. This is all still way out there in time so its hard to get specific yet, but I think we will have several chances over a 10 day period and its at least a 50/50 shot in my mind that we cash in one one of them. by the way hoffman....this might be a northern stream event but the Gulf low isnt exactly not there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 by the way hoffman....this might be a northern stream event but the Gulf low isnt exactly not there it's quite a bit like boxing day 11 with a pretend miller a that's really a miller b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Here is GGEM at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 But 12z screams split flow though. Dry isn't going to be the problem if we want to break the worst streak any snowlover in our area has even been subject to. Dry is the usual problem. I know somebody will throw up the two anomalous warm ups/cold front rains, but the reality is that most of the time from mid Dec on, we would have been cold enough during a real precip event to get snow, or at least some frozen variety. 7 of 10 real precip events (0.1 or more) will be frozen in our area during the winter. The problem is, or has been 3 of the past 5 years, we can't get any real precip events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 European model now again has the valentines day storm. Not sure what the thermal structure looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 European model now again has the valentines day storm. Not sure what the thermal structure looks like. its cold at 850...not sure about surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 its cold at 850...not sure about surface I hate 24 hour panels. Is there lp near the lakes screwing things up or is it a more consolidated system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I hate 24 hour panels. Is there lp near the lakes screwing things up or is it a more consolidated system? i said.. maybe in the other thread./. the main 500 low goes to our north. it's possible it could shift i suppose. but verbatim there is basically no snow south of the pa/md border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS now borderline for western burbs on 2/11 frontal event....the torch may never happen The bowling ball coming out of the southwest is still there. I hope there enough in the way to keep it as far south as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS now borderline for western burbs on 2/11 frontal event....the torch may never happen I'm not sure a torch will happen but am reasonable confident about above normal temps and think the only hope for the western burbs for the 2/11 event would probably be freezing rain but even then. I don't see the air as being a fresh cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The storm next week on Allen's site has a 1002 low in Alabama and a massive 1012 high in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Verbatim the gfs isn't really eye candy for valentines day but it's still a very legit shot at breaking our streak. Maybe the ns stays the F out of the way this time instead of constantly figuring out a way to screw us. Much to be resolved but I'll never complain about a decent vort coming out of the sw in this type of overall 5H setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 was anyone forecasting a torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 looks kinda similar to the euro but maybe a bit colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Next week looks fine for now. Many runs to go and lotsa things to pay attention to. I just hope the vd storm doesn't turn into an std. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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