February 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[mitchnick]

Model mayhem. Whatever that means. Huge step in right direction at 500. Especially if you live in ne. We need a lot of help to get this to go south of us. Prob more help than we can get.

considering what the models were doing with the system last week w/in 5 days (into the Great Lakes) for it to end up squashed into near oblivion, suffice to say there's a storm on the models on day 7 and anything is possible with it

 

 

P.S. don't forget Bob what the ensembles are showing for the AO; that suggests further south

[Ronnie]

Looks nice... Hope we continue to see it

[usedtobe]

I'm with Bob about the Feb 5th storm.  I suspect it will be farther to the n than froecast by the 06Z gfs.   The NAO is still positive on the ens mean, the ridge on the ens mean does look strong enough to force the trough as far south as depicted on the GFS.  The euro and its ens mean are farthr north. Is the 06Z GFS solution possible, sure, but it's a long shot. 

[psuhoffman]

I'm with Bob about the Feb 5th storm.  I suspect it will be farther to the n than froecast by the 06Z gfs.   The NAO is still positive on the ens mean, the ridge on the ens mean does look strong enough to force the trough as far south as depicted on the GFS.  The euro and its ens mean are farthr north. Is the 06Z GFS solution possible, sure, but it's a long shot. 

when the furthest south possible solution is still not even really quite far enough, honestly we would need it another 100 miles south of the 6z track to really avoid the dry slot of death, we are toast. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

when the furthest south possible solution is still not even really quite far enough, honestly we would need it another 100 miles south of the 6z track to really avoid the dry slot of death, we are toast. 

 

You could just copy and paste this.  You always think we're toast.

[zgummy]

You could just copy and paste this.  You always think we're toast.

 

Yeah, but how are his verification scores?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Yeah, but how are his verification scores?

 

You know, that's lame too.  I could say every morning that it's not going to snow, and I'd be right about 98% of the time.  Or more.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Feb 1, Friday morning anyone?

[Bob Chill]

Feb 1, Friday morning anyone?

 

lol- it's been on the map but this is the first time 5h has shown a good vort pass with moisture. I know what zwyts would say about it only being on the nam....

[WinterWxLuvr]

lol- it's been on the map but this is the first time 5h has shown a good vort pass with moisture. I know what zwyts would say about it only being on the nam....

 

Well, the gfs members have started picking up on it a little.  I guess we'll see what the gfs thinks in about 15 minutes.

[Ian]

You know, that's lame too.  I could say every morning that it's not going to snow, and I'd be right about 98% of the time.  Or more.

you are always the most positive person here or just about so.. we all have our place on the board

[Bob Chill]

Well, the gfs members have started picking up on it a little.  I guess we'll see what the gfs thinks in about 15 minutes.

 

Op says mood flakes. But it's an improvement. Vort less than 100 miles too far north. we have something to watch fwiw. I'm not too stoked about it. 

[aldie 22]

I don't think we really need the models through early next week. Far western guys may back into something this weekend but nothing great is going to happen. The models are hinting at a +PNA/-NAO split flow pattern around the 10th-12th perhaps. Until then we are probably not going to see anything great for us DC guys other than the usual 0.5" crap unless we get lucky with a super clipper or something cutting off which can happen. I know Wes has already covered this. I think my feb 8th date is low probability for anything great. So if we don't score from 15-28th we are probably screwed except for a 3/1/09 or 3/9/99 in terms of something good.

HM....almost crying uncle over in the Phily thread....almost

[Amped]

12z gfs shows a day 7 hit. 850temps look good. Will have to see soundings.

Just kidding no cad it's rain.

[WinterWxLuvr]

12z gfs shows a day 7 hit. 850temps look good. Will have to see soundings.

Just kidding no cad it's rain.

How could it be rain?  850's and surface below freezing?  Come on man.

[Bob Chill]

It's not rain but it's miller b'ish that jumps right over head. Even the worst memories on the board should know what this means. 

 

We score wet snow up front but unless everything moves a good 100 miles south, there is going to be nothing but radar hallucinations on the backside of the departing low. 

 

This is not a good setup for us at all. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

It's not rain but it's miller b'ish that jumps right over head. Even the worst memories on the board should know what this means. 

 

We score wet snow up front but unless everything moves a good 100 miles south, there is going to be nothing but radar hallucinations on the backside of the departing low. 

 

This is not a good setup for us at all. 

 It's better than nothing Bob, and it's a week away.  Did you really want it to be perfect today?  

[Ji]

There is CAD and it isn't rain. Perhaps some mix for the coastal plain. If you are going to lie about the models go somewhere else

Shouldn't we take this serious because cold air is established?

[Bob Chill]

We saw the GFS do this last week even with a faux surface low much further south. Still. I'd take a 3 hour thump if it is even possible and hope for an inch.

 

It's worth watching without a doubt. But when we get the "mother of all model runs" we really need to remind ourselves with the history of these types of events. 

 

However, i suppose it's at least encouraging that the track is moving in this direction. when it first showed up it just crawled across the upper midwest. Now it's jumping the coast overhead. Oh what I would sacrifice for a -nao / 50-50 in that timeframe....

[Bob Chill]

And for the record....I am not upset at all about having 3 potential events (however minor they may be) inside of 8 days. 

[BristowWx]

It's not rain but it's miller b'ish that jumps right over head. Even the worst memories on the board should know what this means. 

 

We score wet snow up front but unless everything moves a good 100 miles south, there is going to be nothing but radar hallucinations on the backside of the departing low. 

 

This is not a good setup for us at all. 

I see the surface is not perfect but isn't the 500mb at 162hr where we would want to see it...south of us.

[HM]

Obviously, you guys down in this region will be, as usual, very cautious with this one. But, I just wanted to point out that there is a southern stream involvement here. This is why the "clipper" is beefier than our usual (ala the crap that comes before the 2/5 system).

[mitchnick]

Maybe. It will probably get drier and we will dry slot and we will feel stupid for investing at all. gFS obviously has this bias. Sounds crazy but our best hope might be a stronger more consolidate low to the west that front thumps before changing over or dry slotting. This would benefit you guys more than me.

we had that 5 days before Friday's "event" and it got squashed

because the pattern has such a tendency to repeat, imho this has a greater likelihood to go further south than north in the end

[WinterWxLuvr]

And for the record....I am not upset at all about having 3 potential events (however minor they may be) inside of 8 days. 

 

Exactly.  This times a million.

[Bob Chill]

we had that 5 days before Friday's "event" and it got squashed

because the pattern has such a tendency to repeat, imho this has a greater likelihood to go further south than north in the end

 

Maybe, but this is a much more vigorous ns system. It's going to keep trying to bounce against the wall to the north as it approaches. 

 

But I have to confess that I'm probably more interested than I should be attm. Comparing 500 with the last 3 gfs runs shows why the trend is moving in our favor. I know it's precarious and full of heatbreak but like zwyts just pointed out. There is a 50-50ish feature around. Much will have to do with what happens with the clippers if front of it. They are trending stronger. Notsomuch for good snow here but kinda blowing up a bit in the atl and reinforcing the block over the maritimes. 

 

 

Here's the 12z (left) and 6z (right) side by side. See what's going on in canada? Much better block in central canada on 12z. You can see how it helps with the overall flow.

 

 

 

And here is 0z from last night:

 

 

 

 

I kinda agree with zwyts about just counting our blessings and cashing in "something" on the front vs ss interaction miller b scenario. At least that is simple.

 

However, get the primary further south and we get into a whole difference type of scenario. I wouldn't be terrible upset being on the n side of the primary and rolling the dice with the transfer....

 

Interesting setup. Could be the biggest storm of the year. lol

[Subtropics]

The pattern is no where close to ideal. 1'' does not and will not ever do it for me.

 

12z has marginal 850s as well as surface temp. Should be snow onset but this is anything but something to get excited for.

[HM]

I'd almost rather the southern stream stayed away and the northern stream be stronger and force overrunning into a dome if we are lucky enough to have one.

 

Well, it isn't some robust southern wave but I just wanted to put out that there is definitely involvement. So, that ends up making the overrunning shield more expansive. Essentially, you get a clipper on roids' because 9/10 clippers are basically moisture-starved.

 

As far as the 2/8-2/12 situation, I think the full blown +WPO and slow PAC train of waves without any polar help is a possible solution but not the most likely IMO. Perhaps I'm suffering from a case of "seeing what I want to see" but I think we get a modified +WPO pattern with more PNA and a little more -NAO_east as a STJ train heads in...

[Bob Chill]

The pattern is no where close to ideal. 1'' does not and will not ever do it for me.

 

12z has marginal 850s as well as surface temp. Should be snow onset but this is anything but something to get excited for.

 

Of course it isn't ideal. Nobody has even remotely hinted at any type of ideal pattern setting up this entire winter so far. But your analysis is poor. Verbatim, temp profile is fine for the most snow we've seen from a single storm all year. 

 

The last 24 hours has given a much better shot for us too. And the system is moving a bit faster with a cold antecedent airmass in place. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

The pattern is no where close to ideal. 1'' does not and will not ever do it for me.

 

12z has marginal 850s as well as surface temp. Should be snow onset but this is anything but something to get excited for.

 

Then why bother coming here?

[Ji]

Maybe this is our march 1999