February 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[Bob Chill]

Looks like mini jan 2005. We need it much more south

I looked again. Maybe there's a slightly better chance than no chance.1023hp to the n isn't going to do it. 1030ish would make a big diff. The lame weekend clipper tries to become some kind of 50-50.

[mitchnick]

Model mayhem. Whatever that means. Huge step in right direction at 500. Especially if you live in ne. We need a lot of help to get this to go south of us. Prob more help than we can get.

considering what the models were doing with the system last week w/in 5 days (into the Great Lakes) for it to end up squashed into near oblivion, suffice to say there's a storm on the models on day 7 and anything is possible with it

 

 

P.S. don't forget Bob what the ensembles are showing for the AO; that suggests further south

[Ronnie]

Looks nice... Hope we continue to see it

[usedtobe]

I'm with Bob about the Feb 5th storm.  I suspect it will be farther to the n than froecast by the 06Z gfs.   The NAO is still positive on the ens mean, the ridge on the ens mean does look strong enough to force the trough as far south as depicted on the GFS.  The euro and its ens mean are farthr north. Is the 06Z GFS solution possible, sure, but it's a long shot. 

[psuhoffman]

I'm with Bob about the Feb 5th storm.  I suspect it will be farther to the n than froecast by the 06Z gfs.   The NAO is still positive on the ens mean, the ridge on the ens mean does look strong enough to force the trough as far south as depicted on the GFS.  The euro and its ens mean are farthr north. Is the 06Z GFS solution possible, sure, but it's a long shot. 

when the furthest south possible solution is still not even really quite far enough, honestly we would need it another 100 miles south of the 6z track to really avoid the dry slot of death, we are toast. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

when the furthest south possible solution is still not even really quite far enough, honestly we would need it another 100 miles south of the 6z track to really avoid the dry slot of death, we are toast. 

 

You could just copy and paste this.  You always think we're toast.

[zgummy]

You could just copy and paste this.  You always think we're toast.

 

Yeah, but how are his verification scores?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Yeah, but how are his verification scores?

 

You know, that's lame too.  I could say every morning that it's not going to snow, and I'd be right about 98% of the time.  Or more.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Feb 1, Friday morning anyone?

[Bob Chill]

Feb 1, Friday morning anyone?

 

lol- it's been on the map but this is the first time 5h has shown a good vort pass with moisture. I know what zwyts would say about it only being on the nam....

[WinterWxLuvr]

lol- it's been on the map but this is the first time 5h has shown a good vort pass with moisture. I know what zwyts would say about it only being on the nam....

 

Well, the gfs members have started picking up on it a little.  I guess we'll see what the gfs thinks in about 15 minutes.

[Ian]

You know, that's lame too.  I could say every morning that it's not going to snow, and I'd be right about 98% of the time.  Or more.

you are always the most positive person here or just about so.. we all have our place on the board

[Bob Chill]

Well, the gfs members have started picking up on it a little.  I guess we'll see what the gfs thinks in about 15 minutes.

 

Op says mood flakes. But it's an improvement. Vort less than 100 miles too far north. we have something to watch fwiw. I'm not too stoked about it. 

[Deck Pic]

I don't think we really need the models through early next week. Far western guys may back into something this weekend but nothing great is going to happen. The models are hinting at a +PNA/-NAO split flow pattern around the 10th-12th perhaps. Until then we are probably not going to see anything great for us DC guys other than the usual 0.5" crap unless we get lucky with a super clipper or something cutting off which can happen. I know Wes has already covered this. I think my feb 8th date is low probability for anything great. So if we don't score from 15-28th we are probably screwed except for a 3/1/09 or 3/9/99 in terms of something good.

[aldie 22]

I don't think we really need the models through early next week. Far western guys may back into something this weekend but nothing great is going to happen. The models are hinting at a +PNA/-NAO split flow pattern around the 10th-12th perhaps. Until then we are probably not going to see anything great for us DC guys other than the usual 0.5" crap unless we get lucky with a super clipper or something cutting off which can happen. I know Wes has already covered this. I think my feb 8th date is low probability for anything great. So if we don't score from 15-28th we are probably screwed except for a 3/1/09 or 3/9/99 in terms of something good.

HM....almost crying uncle over in the Phily thread....almost

[Deck Pic]

I'm going to let the others have the 2/5 threat and if it happens ill admit i was wrong. I won't get emotionally invested. See GFS

[Amped]

12z gfs shows a day 7 hit. 850temps look good. Will have to see soundings.

Just kidding no cad it's rain.

[Deck Pic]

12z gfs shows a day 7 hit. 850temps look good. Will have to see soundings.

Just kidding no cad it's rain.

There is CAD and it isn't rain. Perhaps some mix for the coastal plain. If you are going to lie about the models go somewhere else

[WinterWxLuvr]

12z gfs shows a day 7 hit. 850temps look good. Will have to see soundings.

Just kidding no cad it's rain.

How could it be rain?  850's and surface below freezing?  Come on man.

[Bob Chill]

It's not rain but it's miller b'ish that jumps right over head. Even the worst memories on the board should know what this means. 

 

We score wet snow up front but unless everything moves a good 100 miles south, there is going to be nothing but radar hallucinations on the backside of the departing low. 

 

This is not a good setup for us at all. 

[Deck Pic]

It's not rain but it's miller b'ish that jumps right over head. Even the worst memories on the board should know what this means.

We score wet snow up front but unless everything moves a good 100 miles south, there is going to be nothing but radar hallucinations on the backside of the departing low.

This is not a good setup for us at all.

We saw the GFS do this last week even with a faux surface low much further south. Still. I'd take a 3 hour thump if it is even possible and hope for an inch.

[WinterWxLuvr]

It's not rain but it's miller b'ish that jumps right over head. Even the worst memories on the board should know what this means. 

 

We score wet snow up front but unless everything moves a good 100 miles south, there is going to be nothing but radar hallucinations on the backside of the departing low. 

 

This is not a good setup for us at all. 

 It's better than nothing Bob, and it's a week away.  Did you really want it to be perfect today?  

[Ji]

There is CAD and it isn't rain. Perhaps some mix for the coastal plain. If you are going to lie about the models go somewhere else

Shouldn't we take this serious because cold air is established?

[Bob Chill]

We saw the GFS do this last week even with a faux surface low much further south. Still. I'd take a 3 hour thump if it is even possible and hope for an inch.

 

It's worth watching without a doubt. But when we get the "mother of all model runs" we really need to remind ourselves with the history of these types of events. 

 

However, i suppose it's at least encouraging that the track is moving in this direction. when it first showed up it just crawled across the upper midwest. Now it's jumping the coast overhead. Oh what I would sacrifice for a -nao / 50-50 in that timeframe....

[Bob Chill]

And for the record....I am not upset at all about having 3 potential events (however minor they may be) inside of 8 days. 

[Deck Pic]

Shouldn't we take this serious because cold air is established?

Maybe. It will probably get drier and we will dry slot and we will feel stupid for investing at all. gFS obviously has this bias. Sounds crazy but our best hope might be a stronger more consolidate low to the west that front thumps before changing over or dry slotting. This would benefit you guys more than me.

[BristowWx]

It's not rain but it's miller b'ish that jumps right over head. Even the worst memories on the board should know what this means. 

 

We score wet snow up front but unless everything moves a good 100 miles south, there is going to be nothing but radar hallucinations on the backside of the departing low. 

 

This is not a good setup for us at all. 

I see the surface is not perfect but isn't the 500mb at 162hr where we would want to see it...south of us.

[HM]

Obviously, you guys down in this region will be, as usual, very cautious with this one. But, I just wanted to point out that there is a southern stream involvement here. This is why the "clipper" is beefier than our usual (ala the crap that comes before the 2/5 system).

[Deck Pic]

It's worth watching without a doubt. But when we get the "mother of all model runs" we really need to remind ourselves with the history of these types of events.

However, i suppose it's at least encouraging that the track is moving in this direction. when it first showed up it just crawled across the upper midwest. Now it's jumping the coast overhead. Oh what I would sacrifice for a -nao / 50-50 in that timeframe....

We kind of do get a 50-50. But the block is not in an ideal place. North Atlantic. And the ridge is too Far East. It is unlikely to get anything to round the base and come up the coast anyway. I think consolidated low to the west running info CAD might be best case. And we can hope it is as far south as possible.

[Deck Pic]

Obviously, you guys down in this region will be, as usual, very cautious with this one. But, I just wanted to point out that there is a southern stream involvement here. This is why the "clipper" is beefier than our usual (ala the crap that comes before the 2/5 system).

I'd almost rather the southern stream stayed away and the northern stream be stronger and force overrunning into a dome if we are lucky enough to have one.