swimmatte Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Guess the Euro didn't have the next week snowstorm by the commentary or lack of. Rain, and not as much of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I still like our chances after V-Day... its la-la land, but 252 onward would suggest numerous chances of good snows... granted it will likely change on the 12z run... but I am liking the time period after the 16th.... call it a gut feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I still like our chances after V-Day... its la-la land, but 252 onward would suggest numerous chances of good snows... granted it will likely change on the 12z run... but I am liking the time period after the 16th.... call it a gut feeling I hope you're right, Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I still like our chances after V-Day... its la-la land, but 252 onward would suggest numerous chances of good snows... granted it will likely change on the 12z run... but I am liking the time period after the 16th.... call it a gut feeling we're running out of windows. im pretty sure everyone is focusing on that one now. gut feelings for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 we're running out of windows. im pretty sure everyone is focusing on that one now. gut feelings for all. Zwyts will disagree ofc, but I really believe that the 16th to the end of Feb is likely our last chance of breaking out of our 2" streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Zwyts will disagree ofc, but I really believe that the 16th to the end of Feb is likely our last chance of breaking out of our 2" streak DC avg like 3.5" of snow after feb 15. just because it can snow doesn't mean it will... especially this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DC avg like 3.5" of snow after feb 15. just because it can snow doesn't mean it will... especially this year. Yes I know... its just the pattern APPEARED to look good... prob will be screwed anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z GFS still shows a storm signal with good gulf moisture for the 13-14th. Not sure what it's going to do with it though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z GFS still shows a storm signal with good gulf moisture for the 13-14th. Not sure what it's going to do with it though.. Low coming out of canada is going to phase early and suck it to the west of us. You don't even need to see the rest of the panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looks like it can still jump the coast in time to get sne again though so that's a relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z GFS still shows a storm signal with good gulf moisture for the 13-14th. Not sure what it's going to do with it though.. GFS will send us a V-Day present of heavy heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looks like it can still jump the coast in time to get sne again though so that's a relief. The pieces are still way in the air on that, gives us a fighting chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The pieces are still way in the air on that, gives us a fighting chance. Uh, no. What features are there? No cold air, no HP, L in the GL... its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Uh, no. What features are there? No cold air, no HP, L in the GL... its over Good thing this one changes every run, i still give it only 10% chance of 2", if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Uh, no. What features are there? No cold air, no HP, L in the GL... its over the low track starts far enough south at least. Depends on where the secondary starts (if there is any). Anywhere around the carolinas on south could be the rabbit we're looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the low track starts far enough south at least. Depends on where the secondary starts (if there is any). Anywhere around the carolinas on south could be the rabbit we're looking for. Yeah it can't be completely written off for that reason Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 they are...no guarantee it will cut to the west Exactly, I mean it could be low percentile, my numbers are so low because its certainly not optimal, but we could escape with the pieces better where they are now irt what the gfs has. The euro solution with sfc pieces are preffered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i am guessing we never see snow again in our lifetimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 they are...no guarantee it will cut to the west It's far out in time too. Saying a nice bowling ball is definitely going to get dragged into the gutter by some ns low in fast flow is not smart. I'll probably regret saying this but....overall....it really does look like our first legit shot. Not verbatim of course but you know what I'm saying. Close off @ 5h a little later and escape any ns influence early on and there we have it. Now we just get to watch it change a bazillion times and have these same posts continue for days but discussing different problems. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am not sure how anybody can not like the pattern after V-day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am not sure how anybody can not like the pattern after V-day 6z was nice... 12z is cold and dry (borrowed from Phineas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 6z was nice... 12z is cold and dry (borrowed from Phineas) But 12z screams split flow though. Dry isn't going to be the problem if we want to break the worst streak any snowlover in our area has even been subject to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 But 12z screams split flow though. Dry isn't going to be the problem if we want to break the worst streak any snowlover in our area has even been subject to. Exactly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am not sure how anybody can not like the pattern after V-day because by then it has to be -15F below normal to accumulate snow.... if it snows at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just want a 3-6" storm..I'm not really concerned about a sick, high yielding pattern....Just want one decent snowfall You and me both man. A period that favors systems passing below us appears to be on tap. A quick and dirty fast moving wave through the tn valley and off the coast would do the trick. Amped up phasers are nice and all but way too much can go wrong. Let's break our horrific streak with something simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 because by then it has to be -15F below normal to accumulate snow.... if it snows at all. It's easy to get those departures in Feb. Give us a good vort pass and a modest hp to the n and it snows as readily as Ji cancelling winter. March 10th and beyond is much different tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just want a 3-6" storm..I'm not really concerned about a sick, high yielding pattern....Just want one decent snowfall You have high unrealistic expectations. We can't even get rain from a Gulf low going up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 because by then it has to be -15F below normal to accumulate snow.... if it snows at all. And because any good look will likely either break down completely or continue to be pushed far enough back that by the time the good pattern establishes itself it won't be able to overcome climo averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's easy to get those departures in Feb. Give us a good vort pass and a modest hp to the n and it snows as readily as Ji cancelling winter. March 10th and beyond is much different tho I don't know, it took a major SSW event and the PV taking a sight-seeing trip to Niagra Falls to get us two -15F days a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ha ha I would like to have all the snowlovers continue to despair this winter. However, the GFS is claiming there is some possibility of up to 1" QPF of non-rain over Presidents' Day weekend this year. At this moment the claim for DCA is yuck to rain and back to yuck. May any PDS II/III stay away from DCA. (now where did I put my flamethrower?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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