usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Today's D+11 suprensemble mean pretty much has the same look as yesterday's and even has most of the same analogs. The mean pattern has enough ridging over AK that it looks like we would cool off to below normal temps by Feb 14 or 15. Not a frigid pattern a cool one. Before then, the pattern looks warmer than normal. The analogs still after the 14 or 15 did spit out 3 snow storms, about the average number for this time of year so the pattern beyond the 15th is not one that can't produce snow. To me is still doesn't look great as the mean pattern on the 06Z GEFS still has higher heights in the vicinity of nova scotia and points just to its south than I'd liek. It does look like the 1st half of Feb is pretty much lost to snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 True. Perhaps at this time of year we need two long range threads, one for winter weather, the other for "other". Well I have my 2013 severe thread up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Today's D+11 suprensemble mean pretty much has the same look as yesterday's and even has most of the same analogs. The mean pattern has enough ridging over AK that it looks like we would cool off to below normal temps by Feb 14 or 15. Not a frigid pattern a cool one. Before then, the pattern looks warmer than normal. The analogs still after the 14 or 15 did spit out 3 snow storms, about the average number for this time of year so the pattern beyond the 15th is not one that can't produce snow. To me is still doesn't look great as the mean pattern on the 06Z GEFS still has higher heights in the vicinity of nova scotia and points just to its south than I'd liek. It does look like the 1st half of Feb is pretty much lost to snow lovers. what storms did it spit out? Anything interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Today's D+11 suprensemble mean pretty much has the same look as yesterday's and even has most of the same analogs. The mean pattern has enough ridging over AK that it looks like we would cool off to below normal temps by Feb 14 or 15. Not a frigid pattern a cool one. Before then, the pattern looks warmer than normal. The analogs still after the 14 or 15 did spit out 3 snow storms, about the average number for this time of year so the pattern beyond the 15th is not one that can't produce snow. To me is still doesn't look great as the mean pattern on the 06Z GEFS still has higher heights in the vicinity of nova scotia and points just to its south than I'd liek. It does look like the 1st half of Feb is pretty much lost to snow lovers. If we get anything good, it will likely come after V-Day. 00z GFS was abysmal, I didnt see the EURO. I think we only have really a 7-10 day period from lets say Feb 15 to Feb 25 or so for us to have a chance at accumulating snow 2" or greater.. after that it usually becomes harder to get big snows in this area (outside of the I-81 corridor and Apps region) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 NAO is the big disappointment this winter. No assistance in any way shape or form. Not even with a transient block. We can still get storms with a neutral nao but not without split flow and a 50-50. All significant systems have passed n-w with the exception of the ull that got southern va. Confluence to the N squashed that one good. It's been more "wintry" this year than last by a mile but the proper ingredients seem very reluctant to get together. This isn't relegated to the MA either. Rockies and NE are having a terrible snow year as are portions of the MW. Sig snow has been quite elusive in a lot of places even though we've had some cold around that we haven't seen in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 what storms did it spit out? Anything interesting? I don't want to go there cause you'll then think I'm saying that this pattern is likely to produce such a storm and I think that is still unlikely but if you insist.....Feb 11, 2006 was the best storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Finally! Wes has pulled the trigger on a good storm, ala 2/11/2006 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 If we get anything good, it will likely come after V-Day. 00z GFS was abysmal, I didnt see the EURO. I think we only have really a 7-10 day period from lets say Feb 15 to Feb 25 or so for us to have a chance at accumulating snow 2" or greater.. after that it usually becomes harder to get big snows in this area (outside of the I-81 corridor and Apps region) lol...we have more time than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 lol...we have more time than that Perhaps, but we don't usually see the good snows around here (as in DC region) once we get past the first week of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Perhaps, but we don't usually see the good snows around here (as in DC region) once we get past the first week of March Thanks for the update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Finally! Wes has pulled the trigger on a good storm, ala 2/11/2006 for us. I'm sure someone actually read that and came to that conclusion. I'm confident you didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 At least the gfs is showing 2 coastal lows. One on the 14th and one on the 19th. We aren't going to get more than an inch or 3 of snow unless something runs the coast. Pattern is so so but it's better than nothing or torch in the lr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 At least the gfs is showing 2 coastal lows. One on the 14th and one on the 19th. We aren't going to get more than an inch or 3 of snow unless something runs the coast. Pattern is so so but it's better than nothing or torch in the lr. Unless I'm mistaken, it looks cold enough to snow especially after 02/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Unless I'm mistaken, it looks cold enough to snow especially after 02/14. The 14 feb event is an inland runner and is not cold enough. After about the 15th, the pattern is colder than normal. That doesn't guarantee snow though a track like what the GFS is showing on the 18t/19th would be snow but it is also so far out in time that the model will look different on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The 14 feb event is an inland runner and is not cold enough. After about the 15th, the pattern is colder than normal. That doesn't guarantee snow though a track like what the GFS is showing on the 18t/19th would be snow but it is also so far out in time that the model will look different on the next run. Pretty much the story since late december. It takes a fairly strong synoptic system to pass to our west before we can get a favorable pattern for any snow (however small it may be). I can't imagine it being any different coming up. Late week warming seems all but certain. Not permanent but certain. ENS have had a tough time with the ao lately too. Lots of spread as it flipped to the highest positive reading all winter. Now there is consensus to a quick tank negative before spreading out again going forward. Too bad we can't get lucky with something as it flips back negative. Maybe further N does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 i dont get why the european coastal is so warm for us especially after a long stretch of cold weather. Frustrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 i dont get why the european coastal is so warm for us especially after a long stretch of cold weather. Frustrating there probably wont even be a big storm. the euro is slowly de-amping and the gfs still has nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 there probably wont even be a big storm. the euro is slowly de-amping and the gfs still has nada. i know but the euro has shown a 4 straight runs now and this is the snowiest solution it has shown for New England but still too warm for us... I think the euro will fold too but i thought it was going to fold for sure today at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 i know but the euro has shown a 4 straight runs now and this is the snowiest solution it has shown for New England but still too warm for us... I think the euro will fold too but i thought it was going to fold for sure today at 12z. what are your recent stock pics I'm in the mood to take some decent short positions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The GFS operational is all over the place from run to run...I'd ignore it in the longer range now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The GFS operational is all over the place from run to run...I'd ignore it in the longer range now Agreed with one exception though. We get back into an ok pattern post rainer. At least in the temps department. As much as the op has jumped around, it consistently brings energy across the south in various forms. It could could easily be all rain for us but if we want to pull a rabbit we'll need something quickly on the heels of the rainer around vday (assuming that even happens). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Agreed with one exception though. We get back into an ok pattern post rainer. At least in the temps department. As much as the op has jumped around, it consistently brings energy across the south in various forms. It could could easily be all rain for us but if we want to pull a rabbit we'll need something quickly on the heels of the rainer around vday (assuming that even happens). euro has a 2/14 storm and it could trend colder pretty easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 euro has a 2/14 storm and it could trend colder pretty easily probably want to ditch that low near the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 probably want to ditch that low near the lakes yeah...there doesnt have to be a 2nd one after the main one....probably take longer than 2/14 anyway...if at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 euro has a 2/14 storm and it could trend colder pretty easily It could. My wag is n-w track but who knows. GEFS ens are tanking the ao. NAO is still useless but nothing wrong with the ao dropping quick neg. A zillion things will change. We just need more than half a zillion to go right for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 How much for Friday?...getting close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 How much for Friday?...getting close? Too warm, I don't see it. Do you give it any shot? Airmass is stale and the low doesnt bomb enough, low in the lakes counters our flow not allowing cold to get in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Too warm, I don't see it. Do you give it any shot? Airmass is stale and the low doesnt bomb enough, low in the lakes counters our flow not allowing cold to get in. no...maybe some front end frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 How much for Friday?...getting close? 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 no...maybe some front end frozen Yeah I see a bit of OR at best, but not much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.