Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,794
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    manaja
    Newest Member
    manaja
    Joined

February 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Fozz

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The northern branch system blows our thermal profiles to hell before the southern system can begin to amplify.  Our only shot would be for the northern branch to weaken thus cause less ridging in front, and then have the southern system bomb out fast.  Its a super long shot as with less ridging from the northern branch we also have a more hostile environment for the stj to work with.  Either way its pick your poison. 

 

On a positive note I really think the better pattern that keeps popping up in the Feb 20th time period on GFS runs could be real.  The pattern evolution makes sense with the shortening wavelengths and with the MJO progression.  I thought we would get our last real shot around mid February but the MJO progression has been super slow, and perhaps now it is the last week of Feb and early March that may hold our one shot at something. 

Winter is ending, folks. Once we are looking at early March to save us we are pretty much toast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

one thing i learned from the last week is that weak clippers do nothing for me.  manitoba maulers...sure...but the ones we got, i will pass on...they are just too much of a nuisance in my opinion.  i don't know about you guys, but i'm looking forward to a week off from the clipper train.  maybe the pattern re-shuffles itself in the next week or so and we can get some better opportunities going forward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

maybe a small event?...Is it really that hard to get a 3" snowstorm in DC?...I mean that would bring DCA to 5" on the season...is it that unreasonable?

 

im starting to think we'll break the streak before the mo is over.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i think any of us would take 2-4" right now even if snow to rain or rain to snow or the dummy end of a bigger storm for SNE

 

 

Southern stream getting active will give you a chance this month I think...as we discussed a few times recently. There looks to be another more favorable general pattern too coming up after mid-month as ensembles are fairly bullish on a -EPO developing which should reinforce the cold air supply...combine that with the active southern stream and I think there will probably be an event or two there before the clock ticks out on this winter. Without a classic -NAO block, it would probably be hard to get a huge event (though not impossible...see PDII)...but a moderate storm doesn't look like a reach.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

im starting to think we'll break the streak before the mo is over.

I'm kinda with you on this. I mean yea, it's been an awful awful stretch but it's not like a more promising type of setup appeared out of nowhere. We've been talking about it for almost a week now. I've seen a lot of little things on the gfs that show an active and amplified pattern with some semblance of "cold enough" air to work with for days as have many others.

The "if this then this" is in play (as always of course) because models are keying the lr off of a strong storm that hasn't even happened yet. It's been a bit a recurring theme with a strong storm that cuts and then a good period of cold following. This is the first one that passes east for the most part but the pattern afterwards is similar with one exception...a nice wet ss stream keeping things going instead of cold, dry, and dusty flakes in the wake.

It sure would be nice for the majority in the snow contest to bust low.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm kinda with you on this. I mean yea, it's been an awful awful stretch but it's not like a more promising type of setup appeared out of nowhere. We've been talking about it for almost a week now. I've seen a lot of little things on the gfs that show an active and amplified pattern with some semblance of "cold enough" air to work with for days as have many others.

The "if this then this" is in play (as always of course) because models are keying the lr off of a strong storm that hasn't even happened yet. It's been a bit a recurring theme with a strong storm that cuts and then a good period of cold following. This is the first one that passes east for the most part but the pattern afterwards is similar with one exception...a nice wet ss stream keeping things going instead of cold, dry, and dusty flakes in the wake.

It sure would be nice for the majority in the snow contest to bust low.

I am going to win that one. With a -NAO making an appearance later on and if temps cooperate, that is. :)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...