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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Fozz

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So it looks like the EURO has a storm on Friday and the GFS is trying to show one sliding off the se coast on Friday or so. I know its warm but any possibility it could wind up and suck just enough cold air in to surprise us?

where is phineas?

we're good at getting torchy rain dumpings in mid winter

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So it looks like the EURO has a storm on Friday and the GFS is trying to show one sliding off the se coast on Friday or so. I know its warm but any possibility it could wind up and suck just enough cold air in to surprise us?

At this latitude not much, up in NEw England it might be another story. 

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So it looks like the EURO has a storm on Friday and the GFS is trying to show one sliding off the se coast on Friday or so. I know its warm but any possibility it could wind up and suck just enough cold air in to surprise us?

I was just going to post this that the GFS finally picked up on that southern stream vort.  There looks to be a HP to our NW on Friday, so if it winds up and gets closed to the coast, it will be something to watch.  The cold air doesn't look great, but at least there's something driven by the southern stream.

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It's one run. It showed snow at 18z

mark my words

the time for a true "pattern change conducive to snow" has passed; it ain't happening with the current ENSO and -PDO

our only shot is a fluke, that I define as a snow storm (area-wide 4"+) in a pattern that is not conducive to snow

I'd say the chances for a fluke are in the 5-10% chance range, which doesn't mean it can't happen, just very low probability as in I ain't expecting it

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Dec and jan have been laid to rest and feb is now on life support.

Yeah.  After this week, the rest of February is looking warm.  The pattern just isn't favorable.  We would need a fluke storm for decent snow, and with the winter being what it has been, it's not something I would count on.  Put a fork in it, it's done.

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Yeah.  After this week, the rest of February is looking warm.  The pattern just isn't favorable.  We would need a fluke storm for decent snow, and with the winter being what it has been, it's not something I would count on.  Put a fork in it, it's done.

You've said this multiple times. Why are you still checking these threads then?
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True.  Perhaps at this time of year we need two long range threads, one for winter weather, the other for "other".

Don't we have to have actual "winter weather" for a winter weather thread?  :devilsmiley:

 

Sorry to rain on your flizzard parade, but we have to be at least a little realistic, right?  The next two weeks are toast.  We haven't seen any real snow in December, January, and given how things are looking, the first half of February.  We're now left to hope for a fluke storm that somehow breaks just our way, in the latter half of February, when nothing else this winter has?  Sure, we have a shot of some colder air in the last half of February, but by that time, we really have to thread the needle to get anything good.

 

I want it to snow as much as the next guy.  And if we get something good showing up in a realistic window (not 10 days away), I'll get excited.  But until that happens (if it happens), why delude ourselves?

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I am just keeping it real. Feb is looking too warm for something to happen. We can look for something to surprise us and maybe have a shot at nice late Feb snow. In the meantime, I embrace my flurries. I even got depressed over my flurry-hole yesterday.

But I am keeping expectations low, as everyone else is.

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