WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 It's probably best to never assume a clipper will give you much more than most clippers give you. You're probably right, but it seems there's a moisture connection to the south this time. Still, the odds are in your camp. I guess it's either do this or give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 You're probably right, but it seems there's a moisture connection to the south this time. Still, the odds are in your camp. I guess it's either do this or give up. It could be more just not sure we will know till like 24 hrs or less out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Lets watch the sim radar at 48 on teh 00z NAM get nom nom nom'd by the mts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Monday night is a whiff for DC south... FDK to BWI maybe 0.1 if your lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Monday night is a whiff for DC south... FDK to BWI maybe 0.1 if your lucky .13 for Balt, thats a lot for us lol. Precip is impressive, see some southern connection, I like the run. Surface reflection exists, baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 .13 for Balt, thats a lot for us lol. Precip is impressive, see some southern connection, I like the run. Surface reflection exists, baby steps. h7 is fine... h5 there is nothing there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Nam is good enuf. Still 60 hours till its deadly range anyways. Solid .1 stripe is a hint that hasn't been there till today. Dc south is fine attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 h7 is fine... h5 there is nothing there That was one thing I noticed, not really a s/w presence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Nam is good enuf. Still 60 hours till its deadly range anyways. Solid .1 stripe is a hint that hasn't been there till today. Dc south is fine attm. As for this, good post. Juicing it up, and a surface reflection, heavier stuff almost makes it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Nam is good enuf. Still 60 hours till its deadly range anyways. Solid .1 stripe is a hint that hasn't been there till today. Dc south is fine attm. Wish I was as confident as you. For use, the track of the low would be better a tad south. This is a warm advection event since the vort is so pathetic. We need to be north of the low enough to get in the better warm advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Wish I was as confident as you. For use, the track of the low would be better a tad south. This is a warm advection event since the vort is so pathetic. We need to be north of the low enough to get in the better warm advection. Wes nothing is perfect for us, I like our chances though for heavier precip from waa. It somewhat compensates for a weak vort, though with the wavelength a bit better I'd expect a stronger vort that at least digs a bit more. Its more legitimate for us than the frequent .5-1"ers, if it panned out, could be 2-3" for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 And why do we call them clippers?? Lol The name says it all!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Wish I was as confident as you. For use, the track of the low would be better a tad south. This is a warm advection event since the vort is so pathetic. We need to be north of the low enough to get in the better war m advection. Not really confident as much as relieved the entire thing isn't splitting apart and drying up as it passes. Looks like another .5 to an inch. Best case would be 2" if we can get some help with a surface low. Plenty of time for things to fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Not really confident as much as relieved the entire thing isn't splitting apart and drying up as it passes. Looks like another .5 to an inch. Best case would be 2" if we can get some help with a surface low. Plenty of time for things to fall apart. HI-RES NAM looks like a carbon copy of the NAM... lil precip near DC and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 HI-RES NAM looks like a carbon copy of the NAM... lil precip near DC and south We aren't going to have .25 on there over all of dc/md, lets just be happy if this one rolls right it could be 1-2 for some. It'll change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 HI-RES NAM looks like a carbon copy of the NAM... lil precip near DC and south Rap will take care of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 We aren't going to have .25 on there over all of dc/md, lets just be happy if this one rolls right it could be 1-2 for some. It'll change Usually clipper precip gets eaten up by the mts and no one east really gets much... this run somehow gets N/C MD a nice 0.1 of QPF but leaves VA and DC pretty much high and dry... which is odd. Must be the warm advection Wes was talking about. You just dont see that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 We aren't going to have .25 on there over all of dc/md, lets just be happy if this one rolls right it could be 1-2 for some. It'll change How does the radar look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I pulled the trigger guys. I hope everyone is OK with it. Let's post disco there. Somebody bring some mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 How does the radar look? I'll get back to you on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Usually clipper precip gets eaten up by the mts and no one east really gets much... this run somehow gets N/C MD a nice 0.1 of QPF but leaves VA and DC pretty much high and dry... which is odd. Must be the warm advection Wes was talking about. You just dont see that much Precip just disappears once east. Clippers are for folks well east. I grew up in Philadelphia and clippers usually delivered something. Now I am just high and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Precip just disappears once east. Clippers are for folks well east. I grew up in Philadelphia and clippers usually delivered something. Now I am just high and dry They don't always do that though. These have just been miserably weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Lots of going on for these next couple clippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 i think we've seen at this point what clippers can do. for all the recent transplants, now you know. i've lived here for most of my life and we can overperform in a clipper, but most of the time it's exactly how it's been the last several times. usually no precip issues, but very little in the way of moisture. unless these systems pack a punch, the mountains usually leave us hangin'. i think the 2/4-2/5 system is our best opportunity for something legitimate. we need the gulf to start opening up for business again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Usually clipper precip gets eaten up by the mts and no one east really gets much... this run somehow gets N/C MD a nice 0.1 of QPF but leaves VA and DC pretty much high and dry... which is odd. Must be the warm advection Wes was talking about. You just dont see that much I don't understand why you think that's odd. The final outcome is not going to be this NAM run verbatim, but what's strange about the stripe of best snows north of any clipper's path? It sounds like you are suggesting the entire DC region ought to experience similar outcomes from clippers when we know that the bullseye is often pretty narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I don't understand why you think that's odd. The final outcome is not going to be this NAM run verbatim, but what's strange about the stripe of best snows north of any clipper's path? It sounds like you are suggesting the entire DC region ought to experience similar outcomes from clippers when we know that the bullseye is often pretty narrow. the added elevation helps northern maryland probably more than some of us think. i think when the precip looks showery like it did today is a result of a system that just lacks the dynamics and moisture to compensate for the downsloping we see on our side of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I don't understand why you think that's odd. The final outcome is not going to be this NAM run verbatim, but what's strange about the stripe of best snows north of any clipper's path? It sounds like you are suggesting the entire DC region ought to experience similar outcomes from clippers when we know that the bullseye is often pretty narrow. Also there is a down-sloping component with these weaker systems in that area The recent clippers also have been redeveloping along the coast, although in the fast flow any impacts are mainly to the east of the bay and mostly offshore. This is exactly how Eastern MD, DE, SNJ ended up getting 3-7 inches from Friday's clipper. Just close enough to catch some of the dynamics from the coastal development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Also there is a down-sloping component with these weaker systems in that area The recent clippers also have been redeveloping along the coast, although in the fast flow any impacts are mainly to the east of the bay and mostly offshore. This is exactly how Eastern MD, DE, SNJ ended up getting 3-7 inches from Friday's clipper. Just close enough to catch some of the dynamics from the coastal development. That down sloping component is huge back here. If we have any east component to the wind, we're fine. Without it, we are in danger of getting what we got yesterday afternoon, nothing. In the night the winds shifted to an e/se direction and now we're getting a little light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I looked at the D+11 superen analogs today and the pattern does look like it switched to cold around the 14th give or take a day. The we have colder than normal for 3 or 4 days before the analogs retrogress the trough enough to get us warm again. The ens mean from the GRFS does not show that look and suggests the colder temps could have more legs than that. I only deal with two weeks at a time. Right now except for our clippers I don't see any snow and even the clippers are starting to look shakey. The analogs did offer 3 snow events so after the 14th the pattern isn't hopeless. I'm still not sold on the pattern for snow but that could change depending on the amount of stj energy I see. What I don't like that much about the pattern is the above normal heights near nova scotia and points just to its east. That may be an unfounded bias on my part because I like looking for big storms and having high heights there usually isn't good for getting a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Looks like we have lost Tuesday nights clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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