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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Fozz

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What does the EURO show for Mon-tues? I need to know so i can start a thread for it. I'm putting my decent record on the line if it shows anything.

Can start it for the tues-weds. I like the mon night tuesday threat, most models have some southern connection and some precip. I'd give it a go. Euro may just be different on timing, I'll go check SV. 

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Wait what about the system models have like .1 for? 

AFTER HAVING A NUMBER OF UPPER WAVES OR FAST-MOVING CLIPPERSYSTEMS DIVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WE`LL STILLHAVE A COUPLE LEFT BEFORE WE GET A PATTERN CHANGE. THE NEXT WILLBE MONDAY NIGHT AND THE LAST OF THIS SERIES WILL BE TUE NIGHT.NEITHER CLIPPER PASSAGE WILL BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND ONLYCONTAIN ENOUGH QPF FOR A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW OR LOCALIZEDCOATINGS EAST OF THE MTNS.

 

From the afternoon AFD

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AFTER HAVING A NUMBER OF UPPER WAVES OR FAST-MOVING CLIPPERSYSTEMS DIVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WE`LL STILLHAVE A COUPLE LEFT BEFORE WE GET A PATTERN CHANGE. THE NEXT WILLBE MONDAY NIGHT AND THE LAST OF THIS SERIES WILL BE TUE NIGHT.NEITHER CLIPPER PASSAGE WILL BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND ONLYCONTAIN ENOUGH QPF FOR A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW OR LOCALIZEDCOATINGS EAST OF THE MTNS.

 

From the afternoon AFD

Well I definitely disagree, as do all the models...

 

newest NAM at 60 and 63

 

f60.gif

f63.gif

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Lol seems it. I think sometime in the late Monday- early Wed period, there is a decent shot at one of these clippers getting some gulf moisture entrained and giving the area a 2-4 inch type event.

700mb panels have shown a decent chance at the connection. And I think it's fair to hedge a little that one of the little deals can be juicy.

We also need to hope the lift/forcing is a little bigger than pg county. It would go a long ways to get a decent spin at 500 and a connected surface low. Things have been a bit jagged and disconnected so far. The waa to the south stays there and the lift from the n stays there too.

Let's hope 0z runs show things getting a little better connected.

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