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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Fozz

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So because I saw snow on bookend days around Christmas, I'm not supposed to be tired of seeing the same solution on the models daily?

I don't care how much snow you've had. Not my problem.

I want snow. But first I think I'm gonna need precip. I'm not gonna pretend to like seeing a trough consistently to my east, I don't spew too much negativity here. If my dislike for seeing virtually the same thing modeled daily bothers you, tough.

 

My, you anger easily.  Pretty sad.

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Warm? Rain? No?

 

Doesn't matter much yet but as is the model says rain but the track says snow. The thing we should focus on is energy behind the storm that cuts and the lw pattern over na. There is potential here but it's so far away I'm going to enjoy getting clipped to death and then rained on first. 

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Both the GFS and euro look interesting beyond 240 hours. both have a southern stream shortwave to sort out.  The ensembles members from the GEFS at that time range are all over the place in how to handle that energy.  It will be something to watch.

Now that sounds more like our typical winter around here.

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Doesn't matter much yet but as is the model says rain but the track says snow. The thing we should focus on is energy behind the storm that cuts and the lw pattern over na. There is potential here but it's so far away I'm going to enjoy getting clipped to death and then rained on first.

Keep the faith. You are right about focus on the immediate. I'm feeling good right now. I am ready for the clipper regime to end.

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Both the GFS and euro look interesting beyond 240 hours. both have a southern stream shortwave to sort out.  The ensembles members from the GEFS at that time range are all over the place in how to handle that energy.  It will be something to watch.

 

Yeah, have to say I really like the overall "look" in today's 00Z and 06Z GFS going into the 240+ hour range.  Both 500mb and 850mb looked pretty encouraging to me.  The 2-m temperatures aren't great even though the upper level situation and the surface low locations appear favorable.  Ignoring the near-surface temperatures, it's implying a potentially good set-up there for snow.  I know, can't split hairs on details that far out, but my understanding is that the GFS 2-m temps are more or less not worth looking at beyond the short range, and one should only pay real attention to the upper level set-up.

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Punxsutawney Phil says early spring so it looks like chances are we see 6 more weeks of winter!

I believe last winter ol' Phil saw his shadow and we were supposed to get 6 more weeks of winter..........

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Trouble is, we were not able to get "more" winter since we didn't have any in the first place!! :lmao:

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Punxsutawney Phil says early spring so it looks like chances are we see 6 more weeks of winter!

I believe last winter ol' Phil saw his shadow and we were supposed to get 6 more weeks of winter..........

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.

.

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Trouble is, we were not able to get "more" winter since we didn't have any in the first place!! :lmao:

Exactly, he was wrong, as he is more often than not. Just the weenie in me rooting for more winter......as if it matters (which it doesn't).

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As I posted a couple days ago, Monday night's clipper looks like the best potential out of all of the clippers we've seen this winter.  It will have a pretty strong vort with it and looks like it could get a little southern-stream moisture involved.  Still its a quick mover with the closed 500mb LP in Quebec.

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Exactly, he was wrong, as he is more often than not. Just the weenie in me rooting for more winter......as if it matters (which it doesn't).

Oh, I know what you're saying and I guess I was attempting to agree with you (if humorously by my previous comment!).  The weenie in me is likewise rooting for something decent to cheer about this winter beyond getting clippered to death with half-inch dustings.

 

Funny note on Punxsutawney Phil.  I heard or read something that he more often than not "sees" his shadow...not so much from actual sun, but from the lights set up for the TV cameras surrounding him!  Not sure if that's true, but it would make sense.  Yeah...hmmm, let's shine a bunch of light over here, I wonder if he'll cast a shadow!!

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12z GFS continues to show potential in the long range.

Yes, it sure does!  It's very interesting, though I'm trying not to get overly excited yet.  Ignoring the exact details and just looking at the overall flow, the possibility is there I think (or hope!).  OK, looking at some details too, how about that 1050+ high pushing down from northwest Canada (and the 1036 high over Maine) just as our hopeful "PD3" starts gearing up!

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12z GFS continues to show potential in the long range.

Definitely... looks like after a cutter or GL low on teh 11-12 the pattern changes and we start seeing EC storms... 2 of them in fact in the LR after 276.  Its lala land yes, but GFS seems to be harping on the idea that around V-Day and after, the pattern could show us some love.

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Doesn't matter much yet but as is the model says rain but the track says snow. The thing we should focus on is energy behind the storm that cuts and the lw pattern over na. There is potential here but it's so far away I'm going to enjoy getting clipped to death and then rained on first. 

Apparently Leesburg can't even get clipped to death.  Hope you all are right about getting enough cold in here to make it all happen.  

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Both the GFS and euro look interesting beyond 240 hours. both have a southern stream shortwave to sort out. The ensembles members from the GEFS at that time range are all over the place in how to handle that energy. It will be something to watch.

I like seeing this too!!!

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