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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Fozz

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It's going to be a fun period. Probably the best week for enthusiasts in years (literally).

The only thing you can really take away from the globals is that the small threats exist. Each will be unique in its own way and sr guidance will be relied on for accuracy. I'd be willing to bet that the current "wettest" threat on the euro is wrong and one of the others will end up being the best irt precip.

I really liked the 700 panels on the GFS. If we're going to get a widespread 1-3" we're going to need extra juice.

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I have no problem with that but if today is any indication, it all blows away in a few hours after each "event".

Eh depends, this one sorta was "bombing" in relative terms, I gotta admit if we can get one of these to do that, which I'd give the 3rd threat a chance at, we could cash in. This morning was impressive, there were some serious bands of pouring snow in certain places. Some localized parts received 8 inches in 4 hours. 

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I find these model runs to be so disgusting

the vort comes down, precip is breaking out, albeit light, but precip nonetheless and then boom....there's next to nothing, if not, nothing qpf-wise

The vort looks good, but its true that the lead vort tomorrow night rob's the Wes Junker vort for Sunday. Though I see more than nothing likely, the vort is still impressive, and I'd leave it to tomorrow right before the 2 waves to get any definitive answers. This is one of those times where vorts being frequent can be too much of a good thing for us, not enough room to let moisture get backed. 

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I find these model runs to be so disgusting

the vort comes down, precip is breaking out, albeit light, but precip nonetheless and then boom....there's next to nothing, if not, nothing qpf-wise

 

What amazes me is that it's the same solution, time after time after time.  You could copy and paste some of these images, take away the time stamp, and you wouldn't know if you were looking at tomorrow, Sunday, Tuesday, yesterday, last Friday.

 

I know exactly what I want.  I want (in the next three weeks) an Ohio Valley storm with CAD.  I know those don't help some, but they seem to never fail in my neck of the woods.  I'm sick to death wondering if I'm gonna get 0.00 or 0.05 while watching areas all around me get precip as if it were nothing.

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What amazes me is that it's the same solution, time after time after time.  You could copy and paste some of these images, take away the time stamp, and you wouldn't know if you were looking at tomorrow, Sunday, Tuesday, yesterday, last Friday.

 

I know exactly what I want.  I want (in the next three weeks) an Ohio Valley storm with CAD.  I know those don't help some, but they seem to never fail in my neck of the woods.  I'm sick to death wondering if I'm gonna get 0.00 or 0.05 while watching areas all around me get precip as if it were nothing.

 

What's your total for the year?  I have probably seen a total of 5" since Jan. '11.

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What's your total for the year? I have probably seen a total of 5" since Jan. '11.

So because I saw snow on bookend days around Christmas, I'm not supposed to be tired of seeing the same solution on the models daily?

I don't care how much snow you've had. Not my problem.

I want snow. But first I think I'm gonna need precip. I'm not gonna pretend to like seeing a trough consistently to my east, I don't spew too much negativity here. If my dislike for seeing virtually the same thing modeled daily bothers you, tough.

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Joe Bustardi must have scared them:

@BigJoeBastardi: Somers PT NJ 4-.4.5 inches of 30% pop of snow showers ( from yesterday) Beware the clippers! @BigJoeBastardi: Forecast had "snow showers" Forecasters in path of clippers better wake up to narrow banded furious snows with them.2 or 3 on way nxt 4 dys

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Joe Bustardi must have scared them:

@BigJoeBastardi: Somers PT NJ 4-.4.5 inches of 30% pop of snow showers ( from yesterday) Beware the clippers! @BigJoeBastardi: Forecast had "snow showers" Forecasters in path of clippers better wake up to narrow banded furious snows with them.2 or 3 on way nxt 4 dys

he's right that there was a very, very small area that got hit pretty well with last night/this morning's clipper, but the models had those areas near .2" qpf and with decedent ratios, it's not like there was any huge bust

95%+ of the area received what the models were predicting

iow, I'm not impressed by JB's example one iota

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What's your total for the year?  I have probably seen a total of 5" since Jan. '11.

 

I sympathize with you; I wish everyone in the region would get pasted with a MECS.... once or twice per week, but there is a big difference in climo between Alexandria and out here...especially at WinterWX's location in NW Fred Co with some elevation.  While we did much better in Dec relative to you urbaners, we aren't that much different than you relative to our climo.  WinterWx's climo is better than mine, but I've seen about 11 inches or so since Jan'11 and my climo is nearly double yours.  We're all splitting hairs here; these past 3 winters have SUCKED for everyone in this region.  Well, except for southern VA, I guess.

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I sympathize with you; I wish everyone in the region would get pasted with a MECS.... once or twice per week, but there is a big difference in climo between Alexandria and out here...especially at WinterWX's location in NW Fred Co with some elevation. While we did much better in Dec relative to you urbaners, we aren't that much different than you relative to our climo. WinterWx's climo is better than mine, but I've seen about 11 inches or so since Jan'11 and my climo is nearly double yours. We're all splitting hairs here; these past 3 winters have SUCKED for everyone in this region. Well, except for southern VA, I guess.

To add to this, I wish everybody was getting hammered. But I'm pretty good about being positive about snow even if it's not me getting it. It was fun for me to watch the radar this morning down in DC. But whether I've had snow or not doesn't mean I can't say I'm tired of seeing the same thing over and over. I'm sure it won't last forever, but it's old right now.

Hopefully some of the upcoming chances will produce for us. Maybe Wes can conjur up something. Bob and Matt seem to like our chances.

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