Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 imo- the little system on the 4-5th needs to be watched. 700 shows a little ss interaction. Verbatim it's weak but it's worth watching nonetheless. Could get a little juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 actually it is true. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/Dcafeb.txt we have.. but it's not quite the period people glorify it to be if you remove outliers at least in the dc record. funny you guys don't get on randy's case when he starts a snow thread with a meh. he doesnt have the same body of work and consistent pattern the last few days/weeks....I did get on him yesterday for canceling winter on Jan 31st...Hopefully you have a light trigger finger when we troll severe threads this spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 actually it is true. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/Dcafeb.txt we have.. but the 15th+ is not quite the period people glorify it to be if you remove outliers at least in the dc record. funny you guys don't get on randy's case when he starts a snow thread with a meh. Well, to be fair, I'm not trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 he doesnt have the same body of work and consistent pattern the last few days/weeks....I did get on him yesterday for canceling winter on Jan 31st...Hopefully you have a light trigger finger when we troll severe threads this spring I fear for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 he doesnt have the same body of work and consistent pattern the last few days/weeks....I did get on him yesterday for canceling winter on Jan 31st...Hopefully you have a light trigger finger when we troll severe threads this spring not trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 H5 on the GFS is kinda interesting for 2/6 time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Well, to be fair, I'm not trolling. im not either.. i posted facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 im not either.. i posted facts. Yeah, but facts can be used in trolling. Not sure why you even brought me into it or compared me to what you were doing. I started the thread with meh because the NAM had a wide open precip hole over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 imo- the little system on the 4-5th needs to be watched. 700 shows a little ss interaction. Verbatim it's weak but it's worth watching nonetheless. Could get a little juicy. and the 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 and the 6thGfs has a plethora of potential events so far on the run. Could be 2-3 cartop wins in the next week. Shortwave after shortwave etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 im not either.. i posted facts. i guess the question is do you need to waste pixels telling us that below normal temps in Mid Feb could be rain. Most likely it would be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 and the 6th Yea no doubt. It's not like a "big" pattern or anything but there sure are a lot of opportunities for all of us to have our shot at THE BAND. St mary's and then dover.....who's next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yeah, but facts can be used in trolling. Not sure why you even brought me into it or compared me to what you were doing. I started the thread with meh because the NAM had a wide open precip hole over us. because i didn't do anything... some like matt want to act like im always just negative while totally ignoring comments i make in threads like last night when i told people the sys would produce and to stop worrying plus agreed with bob that this group of clippers could present surprises etc. im sorry im not supposed to mention these unspoken bits of knowledge that everyone already knows really well etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'm already preparing myself for the blistering heat that will attack DC this summer. We need a year without a summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 i guess the question is do you need to waste pixels telling us that below normal temps in Mid Feb could be rain. Most likely it would be snow im out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 im not either.. i posted facts. Isn't our average high temp at any point in winter too warm for snow? It's not the average high i'm looking at but the current air mass we are under when looking for snow...but anyway...you are right, the later into the month there are more obstacles but also it seems like there are some benefits as well including juicier systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 because i didn't do anything... some like matt want to act like im always just negative while totally ignoring comments i make in threads like last night when i told people the sys would produce and to stop worrying plus agreed with bob that this group of clippers could present surprises etc. im sorry im not supposed to mention these unspoken bits of knowledge that everyone already knows really well etc. It is sometimes hard to tell whether you are trying to add value to the conversation or just get under people's skin.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 we need a 6 hour period where its not .01,03. We need a .17 or .22. Thats why this winter sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 It is sometimes hard to tell whether you are trying to add value to the conversation or just get under people's skin.... cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Isn't our average high temp at any point in winter too warm for snow? It's not the average high i'm looking at but the current air mass we are under when looking for snow...but anyway...you are right, the later into the month there are more obstacles but also it seems like there are some benefits as well including juicier systems. Whats important is as we head into february and even march the longwave pattern is more favorable as the wavelengths shorten and more opportunities arise. If a souther stream is present in this more active pattern, you have a better shot at a phase or any coastal low. January typically has a different longwave pattern in relation to upper flow, and doesn't give as many chances with perfect timing usually needed. 1/96 was one where perfection wasnt present but was a ninaish pattern so a bit different case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 and the 6th That one is the one I am hoping trends better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 we need a 6 hour period where its not .01,03. We need a .17 or .22. Thats why this winter sucks yes...at least 1 or 2 events where we get 0.25'+ into a cold dome or an amplified track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 we need a 6 hour period where its not .01,03. We need a .17 or .22. Thats why this winter sucks I think at least 2 out of the next 4 little events will have that. It sucks that the areal coverage won't be much bigger than Howard county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Isn't our average high temp at any point in winter too warm for snow? It's not the average high i'm looking at but the current air mass we are under when looking for snow...but anyway...you are right, the later into the month there are more obstacles but also it seems like there are some benefits as well including juicier systems. I like snow regardless of the temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 That one is the one I am hoping trends better. that's the one that has the best chance of trending better (I think). Looks like 4 chances of flurries or light snow before the 6th. If Saturday's clipper were to not take a low east then Sunday's vort would have a chance to do something. Unfortunately, the Saturday system is likely to screw things for the vort with the better dynamics. Off topic, I've got drifting snow outside from 1.5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 that's the one that has the best chance of trending better (I think). Looks like 4 chances of flurries or light snow before the 6th. If Saturday's clipper were to not take a low east then Sunday's vort would have a chance to do something. Unfortunately, the Saturday system is likely to screw things for the vort with the better dynamics. Off topic, I've got drifting snow outside from 1.5" of snow. That was where i was hoping HM's discussion of the STJ would come in to help. Phase is out of the question as the flow is still too fast but something to add some moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 That was where i was hoping HM's discussion of the STJ would come in to help. Phase is out of the question as the flow is still too fast but something to add some moisture. Definitely possible to get moisture injection from the STJ, good post I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 imo- the little system on the 4-5th needs to be watched. 700 shows a little ss interaction. Verbatim it's weak but it's worth watching nonetheless. Could get a little juicy. That's the one I mentioned earlier Bob. Some of the gfs ens members do some good things with it. Some don't. The latest op doesn't do much either. As for tomorrow, I can't tell you how sick I am of seeing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 looks like the gulf is open for a little business on the 6th...maybe need that vort to dig a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The 6th feels so close with threats like these, not to mention the 3 other snow chances before with all these vorts. Really like the 5-6 time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.