mitchnick Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 huh? it has like .1" qpf ughhh, Crappu-wx had the old run even though the first map was the 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Euro still has the day 8.5-9 day storm that doesn't look half bad......as in, if it verified we might get 3-4" EDIT: on second thought, it's not for for sure snow event....meh again The threat has been there but it has always looked like a marginal event into a rotting air mass if we dont get a strong southern stream or phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 lol...it is January 31st And? It's not like this has been a normal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 People post like there's some huge difference between a 2" winter at DCA vs. a 7" winter at DCA. There's really not. Both require not-good patterns for almost the entire 3.5 month snow season. Both are way below average and both would be remembered as a terrible winter. Pretty much everyone's thrown in the towel for a 10+" winter at DCA, but why would there be strong feelings at this point either way for 2" vs. 7"? Neither is anywhere close to average, and we certainly don't have the long-range forecasting ability to nail down terrible vs. a bit more terrible with 1.5 months to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 i split off the clipper talk since it's not really mid-long range http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39119-feb-1-clipper-obs-and-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 this weather is crazy. i went to lunch with a friend of mine today from india and he said it snowed where he's from the other day. i think he's from somewhere near hyderabad. after reading several news sources, it sounds like it may have been hail, but either way, they don't get it often. was it snow: http://www.deccanchronicle.com/130131/news-current-affairs/gallery/snowfall-andhra-pradesh or was it hail (looks like hail to me...love the title of this article): http://www.deccanchronicle.com/130131/news-current-affairs/article/chevella-andhra-pradesh-hails-snow in other news: i get the feeling if we can switch patterns, we might end up with a late season storm...just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 No posts???? Looks like light snow chances every few days. Have no idea what the Euro showed. I assume nothing since there are no posts. LR at least had a stormy look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Looks like the late Mon-Wed time frame has some promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Looks like the late Mon-Wed time frame has some promise Agree euro has nice qpf just to our north. Plenty of time to get that south like clippers usually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 euro looks interesting day 7-8 before warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 euro looks interesting day 7-8 before warm up Its ensemble mean is much different. Looks to be an outlier to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 CFS is looking colder for 2nd half of Feb...opposite from what alot of Mets predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 here is march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 here was jan 2013 temps and precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Lol cfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I have no idea what will happen late feb into March but also have little confidence in the CFS2 which didn't do very well in Jan or Feb if I recall. If I were to guess, I'd guess that early March will be warmer than normal based on where the MJO is likely to be located but admit to no skill beyond two week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 the cfs2 weeklies seem to be more realiable than the monthlies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I have no idea what will happen late feb into March but also have little confidence in the CFS2 which didn't do very well in Jan or Feb if I recall. If I were to guess, I'd guess that early March will be warmer than normal based on where the MJO is likely to be located but admit to no skill beyond two week. If this pattern keeps up, mjo won't be out of phase 2 until memorial day. I'm not buying any second half of feb forecast from any model or any met. imo- it's more up for grabs than any 2 week period this entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 If this pattern keeps up, mjo won't be out of phase 2 until memorial day. mjo.JPG I'm not buying any second half of feb forecast from any model or any met. imo- it's more up for grabs than any 2 week period this entire winter. Other models are more aggressive than it. I think it tends to be too slow with its progression but as I've noted. I have no skill at that time range. I do think by Feb 14 or 15 we'll be going colder than normal again but despite the MJO suggesting more southern stream energy, this year i'll have to see it before I buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Other models are more aggressive than it. I think it tends to be too slow with its progression but as I've noted. I have no skill at that time range. I do think by Feb 14 or 15 we'll be going colder than normal again but despite the MJO suggesting more southern stream energy, this year i'll have to see it before I buy it. Wes Storm Feb 18-19? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Wes Storm Feb 18-19? Reading between the lines I'm pretty sure Wes just predicted PD3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Other models are more aggressive than it. I think it tends to be too slow with its progression but as I've noted. I have no skill at that time range. I do think by Feb 14 or 15 we'll be going colder than normal again but despite the MJO suggesting more southern stream energy, this year i'll have to see it before I buy it. I was just being a smartass with the mjo. But I really do think the second half of feb and even early march is very difficult to predict. I keep seeing various east based -nao looks in the lr that's probably the one thing that could asset itself and we go unexpectedly cold. otoh- the west coast trough could dig in and park itself too and we torch. I think we probably oscillate warm/cool in fast flow through the month but that's a wag of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Reading between the lines I'm pretty sure Wes just predicted PD3 Yeah, I see what you mean. It was either that or Superstorm 21st Century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Wes Storm Feb 18-19? I'll let others make such a call. That's too far out for me to go for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'll let others make such a call. That's too far out for me to go for a storm. People he didn't say no... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Our avg is almost 50 in mid feb.. colder than normal could mean rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Our avg is almost 50 in mid feb.. colder than normal could mean rain Why are you still allowed to post here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Not true Ian..now your trolling. We've had our best snows in mid feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Our avg is almost 50 in mid feb.. colder than normal could mean rain Thanks...very few know we have rising norms in feb with increasing sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Not true Ian..now your trolling. We've had our best snows in mid feb. actually it is true. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/Dcafeb.txt we have.. but the 15th+ is not quite the period people glorify it to be if you remove outliers at least in the dc record. funny you guys don't get on randy's case when he starts a snow thread with a meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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