stormtracker Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 gives BWI around .22" for the 1 day period with .15" coming during 6 hrs ending Tuesday 7PM Wait...I'm confused. almost .4 for the entire Monday-Tuesday thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Wait...I'm confused. almost .4 for the entire Monday-Tuesday thing? no .22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Wait...I'm confused. almost .4 for the entire Monday-Tuesday thing? I'm guessing that it was .22 for the event but .15 in a 6 hour period. Otherwise, Zwytts wooud be along with totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I've never seen the local gov't people so scared of being second guessed, so they just waste our money putting down salt, etc. to protect themselves The over-warning of the NWS and the oversalting/sanding of local municipalities has to be related to the gov't peeps not wanting to tick-off the ruling class, ah-hem, politicians in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The 500h vort isn't bad a 144hrs If it were correct someone would get a stripe of 1-3 so. Of course, it's so far on its own and it lokies to jazz things up at times. Still, I'm not willing to poo-poo it to much. yeah it looks decent for now. i know some say we have 6 weeks but in my mind it's about 4 for those not west/north so gotta get what we can asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 quite a bit different at the sfc for the feb 8 'event'.. weaker, colder tho. another .1" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 quite a bit different at the sfc for the feb 8 'event'.. weaker, colder tho. another .1" or so. We are masochists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 yeah it looks decent for now. i know some say we have 6 weeks but in my mind it's about 4 for those not west/north so gotta get what we can asap. True especially when looking at the pattern beyond the clipperfest, it's back to being a bad one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 quite a bit different at the sfc for the feb 8 'event'.. weaker, colder tho. another .1" or so. dosent have the GFS Ohio Valley/Lakes cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 True especially when looking at the pattern beyond the clipperfest, it's back to being a bad one. once you're off fishing winter is officially over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 dosent have the GFS Ohio Valley/Lakes cutter? 12z has a lakes low but not really a cutter this might be good http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 12z has a lakes low but not really a cutter this might be good http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif If it's not at 384 hours I'm not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 True especially when looking at the pattern beyond the clipperfest, it's back to being a bad one. Almost time to wrap this baby up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 it's gotta give at some point. i've mostly surrendered. There are signs it is breaking down. For the first time all year the guidance is hinting at some STJ energy getting involved as well as a more favorable trough axis to allow something to develop past the Feb 10th period. I know its way out there but there are positive signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 it's gotta give at some point. i've mostly surrendered. Every time I look, it seems like I'm looking at the same picture, over and over. Even in the same pattern, I'd think you'd still have some variation on what actually happens. But, trying to be optimistic, I'm still hoping to see a little tonight and Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 There are signs it is breaking down. For the first time all year the guidance is hinting at some STJ energy getting involved as well as a more favorable trough axis to allow something to develop past the Feb 10th period. I know its way out there but there are positive signs. God, I hope so. The only way it could be a worse trough axis is for it to have been a ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The PV displacement, albeit brief, occurs from the clipper parade 2/2-6. At the same time, the models are shooting in a couple of s/w in both streams and completely mishandling the entire situation. The meandering E PAC / CA low suddenly comes east for the 2/8-10 threat. This whole thing is a major timing headache and no solution is accurate (easy to say I know). Throw in that the models have no clue how to handle the Tropical Pacific headache and ...well you get the picture. The southern stream's influence will arrive in a few days and slowly get partially involved with each clipper system, esp. the last one on 2/5-6. At this point, we have to get lucky with southern stream wave timing and the PV displacement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The PV displacement, albeit brief, occurs from the clipper parade 2/2-6. At the same time, the models are shooting in a couple of s/w in both streams and completely mishandling the entire situation. The meandering E PAC / CA low suddenly comes east for the 2/8-10 threat. This whole thing is a major timing headache and no solution is accurate (easy to say I know). Throw in that the models have no clue how to handle the Tropical Pacific headache and ...well you get the picture. The southern stream's influence will arrive in a few days and slowly get partially involved with each clipper system, esp. the last one on 2/5-6. At this point, we have to get lucky with southern stream wave timing and the PV displacement. I'm less optimistic than you about the pattern though I do think the last clipper could give us our biggest snow of the year (that's not saying much) providing the vort digs as far south as the Euro is taking it. I agree that this will be a tough period for the models to handle but still wonder how quickly real southern stream energy gets to the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The over-warning of the NWS and the oversalting/sanding of local municipalities has to be related to the gov't peeps not wanting to tick-off the ruling class, ah-hem, politicians in our area. Its rather interesting you say that , as I agree with you and think things have gotten rather tempetous over the last 4 years and seem to be continuing. The ruling class(politicians) seems to have changed a bit . Maybe more sensitive . We havent had a good storm for a while. I saw snow plows recently with nothing forecast. It didnt make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The PV displacement, albeit brief, occurs from the clipper parade 2/2-6. At the same time, the models are shooting in a couple of s/w in both streams and completely mishandling the entire situation. The meandering E PAC / CA low suddenly comes east for the 2/8-10 threat. This whole thing is a major timing headache and no solution is accurate (easy to say I know). Throw in that the models have no clue how to handle the Tropical Pacific headache and ...well you get the picture. The southern stream's influence will arrive in a few days and slowly get partially involved with each clipper system, esp. the last one on 2/5-6. At this point, we have to get lucky with southern stream wave timing and the PV displacement. so the 8-10 day threat is very much alive, although a headache to forecast. Very interesting. Guess someone else has a least a feeling for this possibility. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm guessing that it was .22 for the event but .15 in a 6 hour period. Otherwise, Zwytts wooud be along with totals. it has some promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM looks like someone might see an inch out of this thing tonight. I guess it doesn't hurt to see the glass half full. It does look a touch wetter. Doesn't mean it'll happen. Seems like they've been turning out a bit wetter than modeled. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Almost time to wrap this baby up. lol...it is January 31st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm less optimistic than you about the pattern though I do think the last clipper could give us our biggest snow of the year (that's not saying much) providing the vort digs as far south as the Euro is taking it. I agree that this will be a tough period for the models to handle but still wonder how quickly real southern stream energy gets to the east coast. We both agree that, especially leading up to the threat window, the flow is progressive, warm and lacks North Atlantic blocking. The whole basis of this threat window (original call of 2/5-10 but it really doesn't matter at this point) was the timing of certain waves to allow for a PV displacement to time while southern stream influence gets involved. Initiatlly, the involvment will be minimal; but, it will gradually increase with each passing northern stream s/w. The lucky timing could come with either the 2/5-6 or 2/8-10 events. I think the modeling is having trouble because of the complicated forcing setup (head to philly subforum for more in the medium range thread) in the Tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I know this current pattern is frustrating for most of you, but its a perfect pattern for out here -- looks to be a very snowy week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Flurries here at the Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center in Chantilly. Looks like a decent snow shower around Dulles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Euro still has the day 8.5-9 day storm that doesn't look half bad......as in, if it verified we might get 3-4" EDIT: on second thought, it's not for for sure snow event....meh again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 so the 8-10 day threat is very much alive, although a headache to forecast. Very interesting. Guess someone else has a least a feeling for this possibility. Thanks I say enjoy this period, starting tonight/tomorrow morning, because you never know if it will be your last wintry period of the season in DC-MD-VA corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Euro still has the day 8.5-9 day storm that doesn't look half bad......as in, if it verified we might get 3-4" EDIT: on second thought, it's not for for sure snow event....meh again huh? it has like .1" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I say enjoy this period, starting tonight/tomorrow morning, because you never know if it will be your last wintry period of the season in DC-MD-VA corridor. In all seriousness, I have felt that way since Dec., 1973, when I pulled my first all-nighter....I kid you not my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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