Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 here was jan 2013 temps and precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Lol cfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I have no idea what will happen late feb into March but also have little confidence in the CFS2 which didn't do very well in Jan or Feb if I recall. If I were to guess, I'd guess that early March will be warmer than normal based on where the MJO is likely to be located but admit to no skill beyond two week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 the cfs2 weeklies seem to be more realiable than the monthlies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I have no idea what will happen late feb into March but also have little confidence in the CFS2 which didn't do very well in Jan or Feb if I recall. If I were to guess, I'd guess that early March will be warmer than normal based on where the MJO is likely to be located but admit to no skill beyond two week. If this pattern keeps up, mjo won't be out of phase 2 until memorial day. I'm not buying any second half of feb forecast from any model or any met. imo- it's more up for grabs than any 2 week period this entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 If this pattern keeps up, mjo won't be out of phase 2 until memorial day. mjo.JPG I'm not buying any second half of feb forecast from any model or any met. imo- it's more up for grabs than any 2 week period this entire winter. Other models are more aggressive than it. I think it tends to be too slow with its progression but as I've noted. I have no skill at that time range. I do think by Feb 14 or 15 we'll be going colder than normal again but despite the MJO suggesting more southern stream energy, this year i'll have to see it before I buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Other models are more aggressive than it. I think it tends to be too slow with its progression but as I've noted. I have no skill at that time range. I do think by Feb 14 or 15 we'll be going colder than normal again but despite the MJO suggesting more southern stream energy, this year i'll have to see it before I buy it. Wes Storm Feb 18-19? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Wes Storm Feb 18-19? Reading between the lines I'm pretty sure Wes just predicted PD3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Other models are more aggressive than it. I think it tends to be too slow with its progression but as I've noted. I have no skill at that time range. I do think by Feb 14 or 15 we'll be going colder than normal again but despite the MJO suggesting more southern stream energy, this year i'll have to see it before I buy it. I was just being a smartass with the mjo. But I really do think the second half of feb and even early march is very difficult to predict. I keep seeing various east based -nao looks in the lr that's probably the one thing that could asset itself and we go unexpectedly cold. otoh- the west coast trough could dig in and park itself too and we torch. I think we probably oscillate warm/cool in fast flow through the month but that's a wag of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Reading between the lines I'm pretty sure Wes just predicted PD3 Yeah, I see what you mean. It was either that or Superstorm 21st Century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Wes Storm Feb 18-19? I'll let others make such a call. That's too far out for me to go for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'll let others make such a call. That's too far out for me to go for a storm. People he didn't say no... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Our avg is almost 50 in mid feb.. colder than normal could mean rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Our avg is almost 50 in mid feb.. colder than normal could mean rain Why are you still allowed to post here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Not true Ian..now your trolling. We've had our best snows in mid feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Not true Ian..now your trolling. We've had our best snows in mid feb. actually it is true. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/Dcafeb.txt we have.. but the 15th+ is not quite the period people glorify it to be if you remove outliers at least in the dc record. funny you guys don't get on randy's case when he starts a snow thread with a meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 imo- the little system on the 4-5th needs to be watched. 700 shows a little ss interaction. Verbatim it's weak but it's worth watching nonetheless. Could get a little juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 actually it is true. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/Dcafeb.txt we have.. but the 15th+ is not quite the period people glorify it to be if you remove outliers at least in the dc record. funny you guys don't get on randy's case when he starts a snow thread with a meh. Well, to be fair, I'm not trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 he doesnt have the same body of work and consistent pattern the last few days/weeks....I did get on him yesterday for canceling winter on Jan 31st...Hopefully you have a light trigger finger when we troll severe threads this spring I fear for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 he doesnt have the same body of work and consistent pattern the last few days/weeks....I did get on him yesterday for canceling winter on Jan 31st...Hopefully you have a light trigger finger when we troll severe threads this spring not trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 H5 on the GFS is kinda interesting for 2/6 time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Well, to be fair, I'm not trolling. im not either.. i posted facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 im not either.. i posted facts. Yeah, but facts can be used in trolling. Not sure why you even brought me into it or compared me to what you were doing. I started the thread with meh because the NAM had a wide open precip hole over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 and the 6thGfs has a plethora of potential events so far on the run. Could be 2-3 cartop wins in the next week. Shortwave after shortwave etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 im not either.. i posted facts. i guess the question is do you need to waste pixels telling us that below normal temps in Mid Feb could be rain. Most likely it would be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 and the 6th Yea no doubt. It's not like a "big" pattern or anything but there sure are a lot of opportunities for all of us to have our shot at THE BAND. St mary's and then dover.....who's next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yeah, but facts can be used in trolling. Not sure why you even brought me into it or compared me to what you were doing. I started the thread with meh because the NAM had a wide open precip hole over us. because i didn't do anything... some like matt want to act like im always just negative while totally ignoring comments i make in threads like last night when i told people the sys would produce and to stop worrying plus agreed with bob that this group of clippers could present surprises etc. im sorry im not supposed to mention these unspoken bits of knowledge that everyone already knows really well etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'm already preparing myself for the blistering heat that will attack DC this summer. We need a year without a summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 i guess the question is do you need to waste pixels telling us that below normal temps in Mid Feb could be rain. Most likely it would be snow im out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 im not either.. i posted facts. Isn't our average high temp at any point in winter too warm for snow? It's not the average high i'm looking at but the current air mass we are under when looking for snow...but anyway...you are right, the later into the month there are more obstacles but also it seems like there are some benefits as well including juicier systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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