stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'll roll the dice on the thermals. Get a nice thump going, we can overcome a warm boundary layer. EDIT..just read Matt's post. Pretty much saying the same thing. Just get us the QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 All it takes is patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 JMA for the coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 3:59 AM, zwyts said: I am not as worried about thermals with a thump like that....rain to heavy snow...even if it is just a 2" pasting for me, better than some light r/s mix that doesnt accumulate....i want a high QPF event 10 out of 10 times Oh I agree... just saying if we could get a slight move of the 850 to our SE we would be in more business... lucky that our thump comes at night as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Did not expect this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Things looking different at 105...Energy coming in from the west. Could it be setting up something for 16-17th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Where would the snow go back home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ukie looks simliar to GFS, smidge weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 4:05 AM, sbos_wx said: Where would the snow go back home I had a snow depth of almost 60" on Feb 10th and they had to hire front loaders to move all the snow out of my street so cars could move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 4:06 AM, packbacker said: Ukie looks simliar to GFS, smidge weaker. big shift. ggem next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 UKIE QPF at 72 overlayed with SLP. h5 energy is following GFS almost to a T in path and strength on the 00z UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 4:07 AM, Ji said: big shift. ggem next? I would bet. I am in Reston this week, what airport code should I use to look at thermals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 How are the puntcancelforkers feeling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 4:07 AM, Ji said: big shift. ggem next? Who cares it is like the 6th best model out of the top 5. At least the Ukie has high verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 looks close for dc but this is probably one of the best runs of the gfs for many. peculiar. euro oh euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 700 looking pretty prime for some good rates through the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 4:06 AM, ravensrule said: I had a snow depth of almost 60" on Feb 10th and they had to hire front loaders to move all the snow out of my street so cars could move.Going to need that. This was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 4:09 AM, packbacker said: I would bet. I am in Reston this week, what airport code should I use to look at thermals? KIAD you will cry if you look at KDCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 4:09 AM, Bob Chill said: How are the puntcancelforkers feeling right now. We should hold off on the celebrations yet. THere are kids' college funds at stake here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Gfs has only had one bad run out of the last 10-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 4:09 AM, packbacker said: I would bet. I am in Reston this week, what airport code should I use to look at thermals? Use Dulles (IAD). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Is there a reason sbos_wx is posting about SNE snow in the MA model discussion thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 4:11 AM, sbos_wx said: Going to need that. This was yesterday. Nice picture, boy does that bring back some good memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That potential next "thing" looks better at h5 vs 18z. Probably will still end up being nothing tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 4:14 AM, stormtracker said: That potential next "thing" looks better at h5 vs 18z. Probably will still end up being nothing tho Boy you are greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 FWIW, UKIE at 72 is 34ish and -2c 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 4:12 AM, stormtracker said: We should hold off on the celebrations yet. THere are kids' college funds at stake here. I'm not celebrating at all. This event currently is and always been fraught with problems. But I've seen like 10 great vort and 850 passes on the gfs in 3 days. I'm just a little sick of some of the prolific posts from the usual suspects. Maybe this run keeps them quiet for more than 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Best part of the run might be the max for DC is from 0-3z. .5" in three hours.. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 4:16 AM, yoda said: FWIW, UKIE at 72 is 34ish and -2c 850s So, that coupled with the maps you posted above, would translate to snow, verbatim? Seems that the heavy precip at that time would translate into snow? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 4:18 AM, nj2va said: So, that coupled with the maps you posted above, would translate to snow, verbatim? Seems that the heavy precip at that time would translate into snow? Thanks. Kind of hard to surmise without soundings... but would be IMO a heavy wet snow... like really wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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