TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On 2/9/2013 at 9:38 PM, showmethesnow said: The 18Z DGEX is weather porn for snow lovers. To bad it is the DGEX. My God. A snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Big difference @ 18z 45 / 12z 51. 18z is trying to close off h5 over the grand canyon. Pos tilt so it will open again but still. We might get 18z gsf'ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On 2/9/2013 at 9:44 PM, TUweathermanDD said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 18z GFS is going to look good...IMO Unfortunately it is the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 You can ALWAYS count on the 18Z GFS to provide Weenie Dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On 2/9/2013 at 9:44 PM, Bob Chill said: Big difference @ 18z 45 / 12z 51. 18z is trying to close off h5 over the grand canyon. Pos tilt so it will open again but still. We might get 18z gsf'ed. Looks OK at 90 to me..Trough looks neutral, should continue to come north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 18z is virtually identical @ ull's w/ 12z. There are some subtle differences when the low gets cranking. GFS sure has been steadfast. Variations in 850 evolution and track but man, it has been locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 500 looks a good bit better @ 96 vs 102 but why it's digging better is probably a function of 18z programming because everything looked practically identical to 12z leading in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On 2/9/2013 at 9:44 PM, TUweathermanDD said: Looks like mostly rain too. ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On 2/9/2013 at 10:03 PM, Quasievil said: Looks like mostly rain too. ;( Definitely not, all snow. 32 degree line is DC and S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Looks good, not liking the temps, but we can fix that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On 2/9/2013 at 10:04 PM, zwyts said: way better than theother runs today...probably the best run we have seen It's a relief of sorts. 500 had a nice dig as the low got cranking. Deform side does well. Bl borderline but thicknesses say all snow dc metro burbs, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Significant...looks like 4-8" verbatim...still early in the game though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Nice swath of the n side of the low. Overall a great run. I can't believe how narrow the envelope has been for the gfs for like 4-6 runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 You know, I have to say all the too bad it's the whatever run of whatever model posts are a bit of a head scratcher. Is someone thinking they're going to see the storm modeled exactly 4 days out? What's important, IMO, is that a stronger consensus for A STORM has emerged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On 2/9/2013 at 10:08 PM, 87storms said: Significant...looks like 4-8" verbatim...still early in the game though More like 3-5" with melt problems but still a streak breaker. I don't have anything left to go all in with except maybe my kids bikes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 3-5" baltimore, 4-6" DC this run. Would like the best a bit north so we can all rejoice. Digging is nice so this can jackpot BAL/DC. Lotta runs to go, but 2" streak could be broken for DC and 2+ for BWI since they got 2 in the one clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 We'll do better with a more wsw-ene track. Even though it would prob be a wetter solutions, a sw-ne track brings more temp problems into the mix unless some weak high starts showing up to our north. This is a really good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On 2/9/2013 at 10:09 PM, Bob Chill said: More like 3-5" with melt problems but still a streak breaker. I don't have anything left to go all in with except maybe my kids bikes though. Wife? You can't bet your mother in law. Conflict of interest for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On 2/9/2013 at 10:11 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Wife? You can't bet your mother in law. Conflict of interest for many. I still kind of like her alot after all these years. Might get a different answer for pdji3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On 2/9/2013 at 10:11 PM, Bob Chill said: We'll do better with a more wsw-ene track. Even though it would prob be a wetter solutions, a sw-ne track brings more temp problems into the mix unless some weak high starts showing up to our north. This is a really good run. I think if we could get it stronger a sw-ne traj would be ok. In fact I'm hoping for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 @bob...yea i went high because i like the setup and think this could trend a tad north..not much to suppress it to my eyes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On 2/9/2013 at 10:11 PM, Bob Chill said: We'll do better with a more wsw-ene track. Even though it would prob be a wetter solutions, a sw-ne track brings more temp problems into the mix unless some weak high starts showing up to our north. This is a really good run. Could be a Jan 30, 2010 impact zone. Bal city south 3-4+ potential. Way too premature for that though, i like h5 and 850 a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On 2/9/2013 at 10:13 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I think if we could get it stronger a sw-ne traj would be ok. In fact I'm hoping for that. If that happened, expect a juicy solution. If he's so far all in, he might as well jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On 2/9/2013 at 10:14 PM, zwyts said: I am going to look at soundings and see if this afternoon storm is a 4-6" snowstorm for dcYou seem angry? Timing is hard to nail at this range, especially with the euro a bit slower. The vort stuff we need is inside 90 hrs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On 2/9/2013 at 10:13 PM, 87storms said: @bob...yea i went high because i like the setup and think this could trend a tad north..not much to suppress it to my eyes... gfs has been the wettest of the majors though. not saying its wrong buts it's shown multiple versions of .5 - 1" without a lot of extra support (dgex does NOT count. lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 On 2/9/2013 at 10:13 PM, zwyts said: agree...i think temps are a concern for many of us especially with the timing...the best rippage is probably in between 1 and 6 Agree about timing if the model is correct, but even at that precip looks to be falling by daybreak as there is measurable precip showing by 15z. That would limit some of the daytime heating I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I think the track looks more like the Euro on this run but just colder. Storm is there.. Now we need it to keep trending colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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