Bitter and angry but happy for NYC,Boston and Tolland Thread

[yoda]

in a place where i have seen 90 and 60 inch winter...i would certainly except to see 15 inches. I dont have abnormal expectations. I just want to see what I am due...20 inches.

 

Thanks Lucy (from Charlie Brown)

 

"ALL I WANT IS WHAT I HAVE COMING TO ME. ALL I WANT IS MY FAIR SHARE."

[Ji]

Take out the big winters and your average would probably be more like 10" so your not really due anything.

if you take out the big winters and the sucky winters....I am due 20.

[nw baltimore wx]

Thanks Lucy (from Charlie Brown)

"ALL I WANT IS WHAT I HAVE COMING TO ME. ALL I WANT IS MY FAIR SHARE."

That was Sally!

[Bob Chill]

Take out the big winters and your average would probably be more like 10" so your not really due anything.

 

That sounds good and all LAST year but 2 years and counting without a 2" storm is ridiculous. I might not be due 20" but for firetruckin' sakes I think I'm due for a grass coverer. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

in a place where i have seen 90 and 60 inch winter...i would certainly except to see 15 inches. I dont have abnormal expectations. I just want to see what I am due...20 inches.

 

I can certainly understand and sympathize with the disappointment, especially with how the last 2 winters have gone.  But those were two exceptional seasons you list (I'm assuming you reference 2002-03 and 2009-10).  You should understand what the standard deviation around the mean is in this area...I'd bet it's rather huge.  To be honest it took me awhile to get used to that when I first moved here in 2001 (and the first winter I experienced here was the awful 2001-02 season!).  Having lived in northeast Ohio before, even a "bad" winter wouldn't be close to a shutout like here...the variance is far less great there than here (having lake snows did help I have to say!).

[yoda]

That was Sally!

 

You are right, my bad

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

That sounds good and all LAST year but 2 years and counting without a 2" storm is ridiculous. I might not be due 20" but for firetruckin' sakes I think I'm due for a grass coverer. 

Amen!  Though we all know the snow climatology of the area and that the big seasons are the exception, I do have to admit it really, really (really!) sucks to suffer two lousy ones in a row like this!  When the last remotely decent event we got was in January 2011, that's bad even for here.

 

EDIT:  Oh, and I got a good laugh on the "for firetruckin' sakes!" expression!!!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

That was Sally!

Isn't that what she says to Linus when the Great Pumpkin never appears?

[Ji]

even though statistically, we have had a warm winter, we have had more than enough window to get good snow.

 

The first window was early November when the storm the euro had pegged for us..ended up going North and giving Philly,HM a good snow.

 

The second window was between Dec 21 and Early  January. That was the best stretch of winter but we had nickle and dime stuff...not a good snow.

 

and of course..this last window of great cold yielded nothing really.

 

We have had enough cold for 10-15 inches of snow so far imo

[nw baltimore wx]

Isn't that what she says to Linus when the Great Pumpkin never appears?

No.  It was in "A Charlie Brown Christmas," when she had Charlie Brown write her Xmas list and she said she'd "take tens and twenties."  That's when Charlie Brown threw up the clipboard.

You are right, my bad

 

More sallies in this thread. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

No.  It was in "A Charlie Brown Christmas," when she had Charlie Brown write her Xmas list and she said she'd "take tens and twenties."  That's when Charlie Brown threw up the clipboard.

 

Ahhh, of course...shoulda known!!

[RevWarReenactor]

if you take out the big winters and the sucky winters....I am due 20.

 

 

Not really. The 60 inches in 09-10 still hasn't finished balancing out. I think DC has done well the past 10 years relative to average.

 

On the other hand, this is getting a bit ridiculous. At this point even if you set you expectations down to another 2 inch event, you might be disappointed.

[Fozz]

I hear you. I wonder how many average winters feature 6"+ storms? For the western 'burbs, those storms are probably more likely, but for DC and points south & east, a 6"+ storm is a pretty big deal. It feels like we're more likely to see 3-5" events in an average winter, than we are 6"+ events.

At this point, I would be happy with a 2-4" event in February or March.

I know in my backyard/town (which is north of Baltimore with some elevation), we get roughly one 6"+ storm per year on average. Some years will have none, others will have 3-4, but on average it's about 1-1.2 such storms a year. And after the debacle that was last year, I don't think I'm asking for too much. I've counted the last 10 years

[Deck Pic]

I expect not to be in the bottom 5% of the worst winters on record for consecutive seasons. I don't think anyone needs a lecture on how DC is a bad snow town and 2009-10 etc. Expecting 50% of normal is not delusional.

[JamieOber]

I expect not to be in the bottom 5% of the worst winters on record for consecutive seasons. I don't think anyone needs a lecture on how DC is a bad snow town and 2009-10 etc. Expecting 50% of normal is not delusional.

The one reason not to throw in the towel is ampsuAdam, HM, and others have pointed out that the models will have problems with this pattern and might not see threats that far in advance.  

[87storms]

I expect not to be in the bottom 5% of the worst winters on record for consecutive seasons. I don't think anyone needs a lecture on how DC is a bad snow town and 2009-10 etc. Expecting 50% of normal is not delusional.

 

if 09/10 taught me anything it's to expect the unexpected.  i didn't expect these past 2-3 winters to be so bad snow-wise, just like i didn't expect 3 KU's in 09/10.  both scenarios are odd.  one is just a lot better for snow lovers. 

[ravensrule]

if you take out the big winters and the sucky winters....I am due 20.

 

And if we take out the rest of the winters you are due 0" so you should be happy with the 8" you have already this winter. I do realize how painful this is but unfortunately around here we have to pay for the 90 something inches i got in 09-10.

[ravensrule]

That sounds good and all LAST year but 2 years and counting without a 2" storm is ridiculous. I might not be due 20" but for firetruckin' sakes I think I'm due for a grass coverer. 

Agreed this is brutal, but don't worry Bob i will let you rub the Lombardi trophy when i bring it home to ease some of your pain  .

[NeffsvilleWx]

I guess I have a hard time understanding how people can be so emotionally invested in something they have no control over.

I love snow/storms as much as the next guy, but to get all "omfg this sucks I want to slit my wrists because it hasn't snowed" is just absurd, and that attitude is sickenly prevalent around here.

Furthermore, As a discipline of science, being emotionally involved reduces ones ability to remain objective.

[Deck Pic]

if 09/10 taught me anything it's to expect the unexpected. i didn't expect these past 2-3 winters to be so bad snow-wise, just like i didn't expect 3 KU's in 09/10. both scenarios are odd. one is just a lot better for snow lovers.

There is a big difference between 1" and 10". That is all we want. Even 7" at DCA I would lock in. I want 50 % of climo. That is it.

[Deck Pic]

I guess I have a hard time understanding how people can be so emotionally invested in something they have no control over.

I love snow/storms as much as the next guy, but to get all "omfg this sucks I want to slit my wrists because it hasn't snowed" is just absurd, and that attitude is sickenly prevalent around here.

Furthermore, As a discipline of science, being emotionally involved reduces ones ability to remain objective.

We have a disease

[ravensrule]

We have a disease

 

That there is no cure for.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Not really. The 60 inches in 09-10 still hasn't finished balancing out. I think DC has done well the past 10 years relative to average.

 

Yes and no.  I've been here since the winter of 2001-02.  So, just taking DCA for instance for a quick calculation using 2001-02 through 2011-12, here are some interesting things I've found:

 

(1)Including all winters in that time period (11 of them), DCA has averaged 15.7" which is right around the long-term average. 

(2)If you remove the two big seasons of 2002-03 and 2009-10 then the average was 8.4".  That's about half or so of their long-term seasonal normal.

(3)Removing only the record-breaking 2009-10 season, and it's 11.6" which is a few inches below normal. 

(4)Take out the two extremes in that period (2011-12's awfulness and 2009-10's greatness) and DCA had 12.7" which is around 3" below the long-term average.

(5)Five seasons had just single-digit snows at DCA, with three of those under 5".

(6)All seasons except for the big years of 2002-03 and 2009-10 were below to well below the long-term normal (though 2005-06 was pretty close to the long-term mean).

 

So on the one hand, yes, DCA has been overall right around average during that time.  But I'm not so sure if that means doing "pretty well relative to average", since that (to me) would imply we've been somewhat better than normal through that time or that we've had more than our share of above average winters (which has not been the case).  Also, I'd hardly say that we haven't finished "balancing out" the record-breaking 2009-10 season.  It was easily balanced out before and since.  All this really says is that we have the usual "feast or famine" from year to year which isn't much of a surprise.  We can have a lot of really blah seasons, but if we get a year with a couple (or even only one) big KU-type storms, then we'll almost certainly be well above normal.

[Bob Chill]

We have a disease

 

 

Yea, that and 90% of the bitching is toungue in cheek. At least from most from what I can tell. Even Ji. He adds just enough humor to alleviate concerns of him blowing something up. lol

[Ian]

I never would have guessed we'd have three top three hottest summers in a row. Just because something shouldn't happen doesn't mean it won't. If the pattern looked better I might have more hope. Fortunately it's not hard to fluke in Feb but we might end up needing a fluke.

[HM]

For the record, I narrowly missed the big snow in November by like 20-30 miles. While places like Freehold got over a foot, I ended up with a little over 2" in western Burlington County / just outside of Philly. It was a very wet 2 inches and was mainly on grass.

 

Here's hoping for more clipper snow this weekend and perhaps something more early next week (2/5-6). The +WPO from phase 8-1 MJO is the reason for the warm anomaly on the models today...but so is the increase in split / southern stream. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

There is a big difference between 1" and 10". That is all we want. Even 7" at DCA I would lock in. I want 50 % of climo. That is it.

 

Well, if we can score one decent moderate event (say, 4-8", or even, whoa...6-10"!) that would give us 50% or greater of our climo for DCA.  Imagine if we had just one truly interesting storm like that to follow in February (and not nickel and dime events), the place would be lit up!

[Fozz]

I do realize how painful this is but unfortunately around here we have to pay for the 90 something inches i got in 09-10.

Thanks Mdecoy

[FrederickWX]

Well, if we can score one decent moderate event (say, 4-8", or even, whoa...6-10"!) that would give us 50% or greater of our climo for DCA.  Imagine if we had just one truly interesting storm like that to follow in February (and not nickel and dime events), the place would be lit up!

The good news is that February is not looking like a torch.  I wouldn't be surprised to see us with temps a degree or two below normal.  Of course, average temperatures increase as the month goes on, but it doesn't take much for a cold air mass to punch south.  Hopefully, we get some STJ action going - it's been a pretty dry winter so far.

[Ian]

On the bright side this might be the worst stretch of snow we ever see if we fail the rest of winter.