Bitter and angry but happy for NYC,Boston and Tolland Thread

[Ji]

even though statistically, we have had a warm winter, we have had more than enough window to get good snow.

 

The first window was early November when the storm the euro had pegged for us..ended up going North and giving Philly,HM a good snow.

 

The second window was between Dec 21 and Early  January. That was the best stretch of winter but we had nickle and dime stuff...not a good snow.

 

and of course..this last window of great cold yielded nothing really.

 

We have had enough cold for 10-15 inches of snow so far imo

[nw baltimore wx]

Isn't that what she says to Linus when the Great Pumpkin never appears?

No.  It was in "A Charlie Brown Christmas," when she had Charlie Brown write her Xmas list and she said she'd "take tens and twenties."  That's when Charlie Brown threw up the clipboard.

You are right, my bad

 

More sallies in this thread. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

No.  It was in "A Charlie Brown Christmas," when she had Charlie Brown write her Xmas list and she said she'd "take tens and twenties."  That's when Charlie Brown threw up the clipboard.

 

Ahhh, of course...shoulda known!!

[RevWarReenactor]

if you take out the big winters and the sucky winters....I am due 20.

 

 

Not really. The 60 inches in 09-10 still hasn't finished balancing out. I think DC has done well the past 10 years relative to average.

 

On the other hand, this is getting a bit ridiculous. At this point even if you set you expectations down to another 2 inch event, you might be disappointed.

[Fozz]

I hear you. I wonder how many average winters feature 6"+ storms? For the western 'burbs, those storms are probably more likely, but for DC and points south & east, a 6"+ storm is a pretty big deal. It feels like we're more likely to see 3-5" events in an average winter, than we are 6"+ events.

At this point, I would be happy with a 2-4" event in February or March.

I know in my backyard/town (which is north of Baltimore with some elevation), we get roughly one 6"+ storm per year on average. Some years will have none, others will have 3-4, but on average it's about 1-1.2 such storms a year. And after the debacle that was last year, I don't think I'm asking for too much. I've counted the last 10 years

[JamieOber]

I expect not to be in the bottom 5% of the worst winters on record for consecutive seasons. I don't think anyone needs a lecture on how DC is a bad snow town and 2009-10 etc. Expecting 50% of normal is not delusional.

The one reason not to throw in the towel is ampsuAdam, HM, and others have pointed out that the models will have problems with this pattern and might not see threats that far in advance.  

[87storms]

I expect not to be in the bottom 5% of the worst winters on record for consecutive seasons. I don't think anyone needs a lecture on how DC is a bad snow town and 2009-10 etc. Expecting 50% of normal is not delusional.

 

if 09/10 taught me anything it's to expect the unexpected.  i didn't expect these past 2-3 winters to be so bad snow-wise, just like i didn't expect 3 KU's in 09/10.  both scenarios are odd.  one is just a lot better for snow lovers. 

[ravensrule]

if you take out the big winters and the sucky winters....I am due 20.

 

And if we take out the rest of the winters you are due 0" so you should be happy with the 8" you have already this winter. I do realize how painful this is but unfortunately around here we have to pay for the 90 something inches i got in 09-10.

[ravensrule]

That sounds good and all LAST year but 2 years and counting without a 2" storm is ridiculous. I might not be due 20" but for firetruckin' sakes I think I'm due for a grass coverer. 

Agreed this is brutal, but don't worry Bob i will let you rub the Lombardi trophy when i bring it home to ease some of your pain  .

[NeffsvilleWx]

I guess I have a hard time understanding how people can be so emotionally invested in something they have no control over.

I love snow/storms as much as the next guy, but to get all "omfg this sucks I want to slit my wrists because it hasn't snowed" is just absurd, and that attitude is sickenly prevalent around here.

Furthermore, As a discipline of science, being emotionally involved reduces ones ability to remain objective.

[ravensrule]

We have a disease

 

That there is no cure for.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Not really. The 60 inches in 09-10 still hasn't finished balancing out. I think DC has done well the past 10 years relative to average.

 

Yes and no.  I've been here since the winter of 2001-02.  So, just taking DCA for instance for a quick calculation using 2001-02 through 2011-12, here are some interesting things I've found:

 

(1)Including all winters in that time period (11 of them), DCA has averaged 15.7" which is right around the long-term average. 

(2)If you remove the two big seasons of 2002-03 and 2009-10 then the average was 8.4".  That's about half or so of their long-term seasonal normal.

(3)Removing only the record-breaking 2009-10 season, and it's 11.6" which is a few inches below normal. 

(4)Take out the two extremes in that period (2011-12's awfulness and 2009-10's greatness) and DCA had 12.7" which is around 3" below the long-term average.

(5)Five seasons had just single-digit snows at DCA, with three of those under 5".

(6)All seasons except for the big years of 2002-03 and 2009-10 were below to well below the long-term normal (though 2005-06 was pretty close to the long-term mean).

 

So on the one hand, yes, DCA has been overall right around average during that time.  But I'm not so sure if that means doing "pretty well relative to average", since that (to me) would imply we've been somewhat better than normal through that time or that we've had more than our share of above average winters (which has not been the case).  Also, I'd hardly say that we haven't finished "balancing out" the record-breaking 2009-10 season.  It was easily balanced out before and since.  All this really says is that we have the usual "feast or famine" from year to year which isn't much of a surprise.  We can have a lot of really blah seasons, but if we get a year with a couple (or even only one) big KU-type storms, then we'll almost certainly be well above normal.

[Bob Chill]

We have a disease

 

 

Yea, that and 90% of the bitching is toungue in cheek. At least from most from what I can tell. Even Ji. He adds just enough humor to alleviate concerns of him blowing something up. lol

[Ian]

I never would have guessed we'd have three top three hottest summers in a row. Just because something shouldn't happen doesn't mean it won't. If the pattern looked better I might have more hope. Fortunately it's not hard to fluke in Feb but we might end up needing a fluke.

[HM]

For the record, I narrowly missed the big snow in November by like 20-30 miles. While places like Freehold got over a foot, I ended up with a little over 2" in western Burlington County / just outside of Philly. It was a very wet 2 inches and was mainly on grass.

 

Here's hoping for more clipper snow this weekend and perhaps something more early next week (2/5-6). The +WPO from phase 8-1 MJO is the reason for the warm anomaly on the models today...but so is the increase in split / southern stream. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

There is a big difference between 1" and 10". That is all we want. Even 7" at DCA I would lock in. I want 50 % of climo. That is it.

 

Well, if we can score one decent moderate event (say, 4-8", or even, whoa...6-10"!) that would give us 50% or greater of our climo for DCA.  Imagine if we had just one truly interesting storm like that to follow in February (and not nickel and dime events), the place would be lit up!

[Fozz]

I do realize how painful this is but unfortunately around here we have to pay for the 90 something inches i got in 09-10.

Thanks Mdecoy

[FrederickWX]

Well, if we can score one decent moderate event (say, 4-8", or even, whoa...6-10"!) that would give us 50% or greater of our climo for DCA.  Imagine if we had just one truly interesting storm like that to follow in February (and not nickel and dime events), the place would be lit up!

The good news is that February is not looking like a torch.  I wouldn't be surprised to see us with temps a degree or two below normal.  Of course, average temperatures increase as the month goes on, but it doesn't take much for a cold air mass to punch south.  Hopefully, we get some STJ action going - it's been a pretty dry winter so far.

[Ian]

On the bright side this might be the worst stretch of snow we ever see if we fail the rest of winter.

[Bob Chill]

On the bright side this might be the worst stretch of snow we ever see if we fail the rest of winter.

 

Nah, we'll have a legit nina next year with a raging +ao. It's gonna be sick. 1,100 days or bust. 

[brad1551]

On the bright side this might be the worst stretch of snow we ever see if we fail the rest of winter.

Amen to that!!

[Ian]

True. We could be going into some climatic abyss. We only have credible data for 125 years. That would suck.

I know it's sorta silly to give up hope at this pt given how Feb is usually our best month. I just don't know if we can carry that expectation given how things have gone thus far. Well, at least when it comes to nomal... besting .8" shouldnt be inpossible. A brief look at other winters with so little snow thru now still avgs a somewhat respectable number here out, though if you manipulate it a bit to fit not as good... It's possible I'm just being too negative.

[WVclimo]

(5)Five seasons had just single-digit snows at DCA, with three of those under 5".

 

This is the gist of the present board agony.  If DCA can't crack double-digits before spring, it will be 5 of the past 7 years.  Another of those years had 10.1"  That's unprecedented.

 

Another problem is that, as those of us who have lived around here a long time well know, seasons with these low totals through the end of January usually don't see a late recovery.  They just stink as a whole.  I know the 40's had a couple of years that got rescued after January, but we're at the point that we're rooting for the once-in-a-decade winter like 71-72, 85-86 or 98-99 in the metro area.

I'm not doom and gloom like Ji because I've had 12+"  But I've also endured a 5" season and an 8" season here the past five years, and I totally get where he's coming from.

[PhineasC]

The lack of "normal" is rather disconcerting. Ether the models lock in a HECS or it waffles around for days only to be flurries at verification. It seems like standard 5 inch storms have been outlawed. It is getting pretty ridiculous.

[Ian]

The lack of "normal" is rather disconcerting. Ether the models lock in a HECS or it waffles around for days only to be flurries at verification. It seems like standard 5 inch storms have been outlawed. It is getting pretty ridiculous.

Normal is kind of a misnomer of course, but the past few years have been peculiar weatherwise any way you cut it. It's one thing to balance over some marginal diff one way or another but we've mostly just bounced from extreme to extreme.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

"This is the gist of the present board agony. If DCA can't crack double-digits before spring, it will be 5 of the past 7 years. Another of those years had 10.1" That's unprecedented.

 

Another problem is that, as those of us who have lived around here a long time well know, seasons with these low totals through the end of January usually don't see a late recovery. They just stink as a whole. I know the 40's had a couple of years that got rescued after January, but we're at the point that we're rooting for the once-in-a-decade winter like 71-72, 85-86 or 98-99 in the metro area.

I'm not doom and gloom like Ji because I've had 12+" But I've also endured a 5" season and an 8" season here the past five years, and I totally get where he's coming from."

 

 

Oh, I know the gist of this board is agony.  I was posting those stats just for information and to counter this belief that somehow we have to "pay" for 2009-10 (which some people have expressed, either seriously or in humor).  As far as lame winters through January getting rescued late, I'd say Feb. 2007 came awfully close to accomplishing just that.  In some ways, I look at that as an underrated winter.  I've said this before, but if this area had gotten hit with the Valentine's Day storm that year (which it looked like we would for awhile), then it would have probably been considered a pretty good season.  Imagine if we had gotten 12"+ from that, which we were oh-so-close to having happen, instead of a 3" sleet-fest.  That, on top of extreme cold that month which lasted into March.

 

But yeah, what we've experienced last winter through this year so far is just damn depressing.  Coming on the heels of suffering the three hottest Julys on record is a double slap in the face!

 

(By the way, I had to cut and paste your quote above, not sure what happened and why it didn't appear in the reply box!)

[PhineasC]

Normal is kind of a misnomer of course, but the past few years have been peculiar weatherwise any way you cut it. It's one thing to balance over some marginal diff one way or another but we've mostly just bounced from extreme to extreme.

Maybe it is nostalgia talking, but what happened to the storms that used to drop 3 in DC and 5 in the suburbs? Now if the models don't show 2 inches of liquid with cold temps 24 hours out we get flurries.

[Grothar of Herndon]

Maybe it is nostalgia talking, but what happened to the storms that used to drop 3 in DC and 5 in the suburbs? Now if the models don't show 2 inches of liquid with cold temps 24 hours out we get flurries.

Good point...we seem to be living in an era of extreme weather...all or nothing or little if any anything. Look at even our warm/hot weather storms. Derecho or sprinkles. Winter storms are 2' or 0.5".

[winterymix]

Maybe it is nostalgia talking, but what happened to the storms that used to drop 3 in DC and 5 in the suburbs? Now if the models don't show 2 inches of liquid with cold temps 24 hours out we get flurries.

The raging Pacific Jet reloads more often than patterns that correlate with East Cast snow.

In other words, most years, we get the opposite of a predominate sub-tropic plume of moisture and vorticity

that is counter-balanced by high latitude blocking.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I guess I have a hard time understanding how people can be so emotionally invested in something they have no control over.

I love snow/storms as much as the next guy, but to get all "omfg this sucks I want to slit my wrists because it hasn't snowed" is just absurd, and that attitude is sickenly prevalent around here.

Furthermore, As a discipline of science, being emotionally involved reduces ones ability to remain objective.

In it for strictly the science huh? Are you a met? Sitting around with your slide rule and endless lists of physics/calculus equations?

I find your post more than a bit condescending as if somehow those of us who do have some emotion about weather are somehow outcasts of this great scientific forum.

We have mets here who have dedicated their lives to the science of weather. Most of the rest are here to learn a from them because we are EMOTIONALLY invested in the actual weather that we get to experience, and because there's the challenge of seeing if we can do to some degree what the pros do, forecast the weather.

So if the objective, cold, rational science of weather is the only reason you're here, OK. You're just going to have to tolerate the rest of us who are here for FUN.

Do you even live in the MA?