ravensrule Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 today/s GFS is quicker bringing southern stream energy eastward than the ens mean I was looking at so if it is right, my analysis could be garbage. That should be your hope. Anything coming across the south is good. Exactly Wes, that is where the Ravens Super Bowl trophy will be coming through on it's way up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Until last winter I had gotten a 3"+ event for 13 consecutive winters. I think it is too early to give up. I haven't totally given up but it seems the conversation has trended less and less reality based on both sides. So, it might just be a good time to not read the forum that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I haven't totally given up but it seems the conversation has trended less and less reality based on both sides. So, it might just be a good time to not read the forum that much. But then you'll miss someone's Bon Mot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I haven't totally given up but it seems the conversation has trended less and less reality based on both sides. So, it might just be a good time to not read the forum that much. Probably though I don't know of anyone who is really honking the horn. I am one of the more optimistic people and I am going for 6-8" seasonal at DCA. Are there people calling for a big winter or a KU? If so I haven't noticed. The guesses in the contest are all pretty modest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 But then you'll miss someone's Bon Mot. I haven't really noticed anyone living in fantasy land. Neither the more optimistic or the winter cancelers who could be right as well. A 7" winter at DCA will still be a crappy winter but it will still take a real event to get there a 3" event or a couple 2-4" events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I haven't really noticed anyone living in fantasy land. Neither the more optimistic or the winter cancelers who could be right as well. A 7" winter at DCA will still be a crappy winter but it will still take a real event to get there a 3" event or a couple 2-4" events. i haven't either though Bob likes to be on the optimistic side/ HM is interested in the Feb 8-12 time period for a possible storm. Unless we get the southern stream going I thinnk that is still too early. The euro 240 looks pretty dismal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 i haven't either though Bob likes to be on the optimistic side I'm an eternal optimist but usually grounded in reality. It's my job as a weenie here to point out what is worth watching and it's your job to squash all hopes and dreams. We've done our jobs pretty well this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'm an eternal optimist but usually grounded in reality. It's my job as a weenie here to point out what is worth watching and it's your job to squash all hopes and dreams. We've done our jobs pretty well this year. Hopefully, we'll both get to be really optimistic somewhere down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 i haven't either though Bob likes to be on the optimistic side/ HM is interested in the Feb 8-12 time period for a possible storm. Unless we get the southern stream going I thinnk that is still too early. The euro 240 looks pretty dismal to me. Yes. The euro shows no southern stream. Not even the 1012mb sheared lows that do nothing. My feb 8 date was more for quasi educated fun. HM has more science involved but these things are still guesses and get pushed back. Maybe we can luck out with something from the west next weekend or next week that gives us 0.20" liquid or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'm an eternal optimist but usually grounded in reality. It's my job as a weenie here to point out what is worth watching and it's your job to squash all hopes and dreams. We've done our jobs pretty well this year. It's really hard to get <5" at DCA. That is most of my optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Hopefully, we'll both get to be really optimistic somewhere down the line. I'm probably not as optimistic as I sound most of the time. If it's a dead dog I'll call it out pretty quick. Even though it's far far from ideal with the lw patter on our side of the planet right now, it's exponentially better than the majority of the first 6 weeks of met winter. Yea, we has some frozen doses the last week of the year but the pattern was worse than what we have now. IF (gigantic if) the western ridge keeps rebuilding like it seems to want to do lately, something has to slip underneath it from time to time. It's bound to happen. D10 on the euro is pointing towards some semblance of a -nao. GFS is considering those possibilities too. It appears we're going to die a slow snowless death if we don't get some help there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I did say both sides but there is always an optimistic lean to everything here. Today I saw posts about it being a good thing the models show little potential because they've been bad. Climo yeah, we are due yeah... Ill need to see it staring me in the face to believe it at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I did say both sides but there is always an optimistic lean to everything here. Today I saw posts about it being a good thing the models show little potential because they've been bad. Climo yeah, we are due yeah... Ill need to see it staring me in the face to believe it at this pt. Optimism would be erased instantly if we went into a big +nao / pac zonal setup. Or if the nasty wc tough parked itself again. I hear what ur saying though. At least were not staring down the reality of a nail in the coffin winter cancel....yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Optimism would be erased instantly if we went into a big +nao / pac zonal setup. Or if the nasty wc tough parked itself again. I hear what ur saying though. At least were not staring down the reality of a nail in the coffin winter cancel....yet.... I'm not sold we are screwed but I am pessimistic. I'm willing to say I have a bias of not caring much anymore unless we get something of real note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'm not sold we are screwed but I am pessimistic. I'm willing to say I have a bias of not caring much anymore unless we get something of real note. I'm about in the same boat. I do a lot of stuff outdoors so when we get warm spells even in winter I enjoy it. I don't root for it but I don't mind it as bad as some. I'm more interested in ending the <2" streak than getting near climo or anything like that. If we are going to squeeze 4" this month lets just get it in one storm and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 reality has slapped our region in the face the last couple of years. 09/10 was awesome...but it was a fluke...an anomaly. our average of snow is still 15-20" or so. given the 60" (i don't remember the exact number) we got in 09/10 it's reasonable to think that it would take 3 winters of below average (or well below average) to cancel that out. i'm craving a decent snowstorm as much as the next person. at this point, i'd be extremely content with 2-4" and that's where mother nature has humbled us. 2-4" after 09/10 was probably looked at unfavorably by the average snow lover. now, i think we'd all be pretty geeked up about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'm about in the same boat. I do a lot of stuff outdoors so when we get warm spells even in winter I enjoy it. I don't root for it but I don't mind it as bad as some. I'm more interested in ending the <2" streak than getting near climo or anything like that. If we are going to squeeze 4" this month lets just get it in one storm and be done with it. I'm just grumpy at this pt. Agree on breaking the streak.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 reality has slapped our region in the face the last couple of years. 09/10 was awesome...but it was a fluke...an anomaly. our average of snow is still 15-20" or so. given the 60" (i don't remember the exact number) we got in 09/10 it's reasonable to think that it would take 3 winters of below average (or well below average) to cancel that out. i'm craving a decent snowstorm as much as the next person. at this point, i'd be extremely content with 2-4" and that's where mother nature has humbled us. 2-4" after 09/10 was probably looked at unfavorably by the average snow lover. now, i think we'd all be pretty geeked up about it. 2-4 is nice but I want a 6"+ storm. And I don't think anyone here in our forum is dumb enough to expect a KU/MECS every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It just the freakin weather Finally, a rational post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It just the freakin weather Exactly! I can understand being disappointed when a projected snowstorm doesn't pan out. However, being bitter and angry because of a mild winter - pointless. The DC area is just not that good for having snowy winters, unless you live out in far western Maryland, but even there, the last two winters haven't been great for snow lovers. It's something that we have to accept. When we get a snowy winter, consider that a bonus, as that is really what it is. The best thing Ji can do is have little or no expectation of February. That way, if we get an event, it's a nice surprise. That is how I've approached this winter, after the disaster of last winter, and it's paid off. I've had about 8" of snow in my backyard, a week of the coldest air in 3 or 4 years, and a week at the end of December/beginning of January with three small snow events that stuck around for another week. This has been a better winter than last winter, so in my book, it's been good. People in DC proper, or in the eastern suburbs, have a lot more to legitimately complain about than those of use who have been lucky with these small events in the northern/western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I did say both sides but there is always an optimistic lean to everything here. Today I saw posts about it being a good thing the models show little potential because they've been bad. Climo yeah, we are due yeah... Ill need to see it staring me in the face to believe it at this pt. This is the correct attitude to have, given how winter has gone to this point. Low expectations are key, and not getting excited at a storm in the D10 range. Otherwise, you're just setting yourself up for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Finally, a rational post. It is and it isn't though. This place is like 98% snow fans and probably 75% are diehards. If we didn't care about it we wouldn't be here. These last 2 years are under our skin and rightfully so. It's like sports fans. It never feels good when your team loses. It feels even worse when they have a terrible season. And even worse when the team goes back to back 1-15 after winning the superbowl. That's about where snow weenies are right now. The joy of winning is long gone. You find yourself just rooting for a couple good wins inside of an overall crappy season. The cities are 0-12 and counting this year. I'm a fan and it sucks. I don't cry in my beer but I don't pretend to not care at all either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It is and it isn't though. This place is like 98% snow fans and probably 75% are diehards. If we didn't care about it we wouldn't be here. These last 2 years are under our skin and rightfully so. It's like sports fans. It never feels good when your team loses. It feels even worse when they have a terrible season. And even worse when the team goes back to back 1-15 after winning the superbowl. That's about where snow weenies are right now. The joy of winning is long gone. You find yourself just rooting for a couple good wins inside of an overall crappy season. The cities are 0-12 and counting this year. I'm a fan and it sucks. I don't cry in my beer but I don't pretend to not care at all either. +1000. Best analogy I've seen regarding this topic. Most of us aren't going gall into a perpetual state of depression because our sports team, but we all have the right to get bummed/angry if our team plays terribly on Sunday. Sadly, with snowfall, we have no coaches or coordinators to fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 2-4 is nice but I want a 6"+ storm. And I don't think anyone here in our forum is dumb enough to expect a KU/MECS every year. I hear you. I wonder how many average winters feature 6"+ storms? For the western 'burbs, those storms are probably more likely, but for DC and points south & east, a 6"+ storm is a pretty big deal. It feels like we're more likely to see 3-5" events in an average winter, than we are 6"+ events. At this point, I would be happy with a 2-4" event in February or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 +1000. Best analogy I've seen regarding this topic. Most of us aren't going gall into a perpetual state of depression because our sports team, but we all have the right to get bummed/angry if our team plays terribly on Sunday. Sadly, with snowfall, we have no coaches or coordinators to fire. We can fire Wes though, it is all his fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It is and it isn't though. This place is like 98% snow fans and probably 75% are diehards. If we didn't care about it we wouldn't be here. These last 2 years are under our skin and rightfully so. It's like sports fans. It never feels good when your team loses. It feels even worse when they have a terrible season. And even worse when the team goes back to back 1-15 after winning the superbowl. That's about where snow weenies are right now. The joy of winning is long gone. You find yourself just rooting for a couple good wins inside of an overall crappy season. The cities are 0-12 and counting this year. I'm a fan and it sucks. I don't cry in my beer but I don't pretend to not care at all either. There is disappointment and then there is Ji That was my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 There is disappointment and then there is Ji That was my point lol- ur right. It would be a bad time to ask him to dog sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 in a place where i have seen 90 and 60 inch winter...i would certainly except to see 15 inches. I dont have abnormal expectations. I just want to see what I am due...20 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 in a place where i have seen 90 and 60 inch winter...i would certainly except to see 15 inches. I dont have abnormal expectations. I just want to see what I am due...20 inches. Take out the big winters and your average would probably be more like 10" so your not really due anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It is and it isn't though. This place is like 98% snow fans and probably 75% are diehards. If we didn't care about it we wouldn't be here. These last 2 years are under our skin and rightfully so. It's like sports fans. It never feels good when your team loses. It feels even worse when they have a terrible season. And even worse when the team goes back to back 1-15 after winning the superbowl. That's about where snow weenies are right now. The joy of winning is long gone. You find yourself just rooting for a couple good wins inside of an overall crappy season. The cities are 0-12 and counting this year. I'm a fan and it sucks. I don't cry in my beer but I don't pretend to not care at all either. As a long-suffering Cleveland Browns fan , I endorse this analogy!! (Except that they never won, let alone were in, a Super Bowl...the "Drive" and the "Fumble" are still painful memories!). But yeah, the last two winters feel like 1-15 seasons, and this year was supposed to be a somewhat promising improvement! The past week, despite cold with a bit of snow, was like having a great scoring drive stalled and you're either forced to punt, settle for a field goal, or suffer a turnover near the end zone...when you're already losing by 3 TDs in the 2nd half!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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