TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Can just one synoptic storm hit "the zone" this winter? Ok, I am going to go out in my snowpack before it is all gone by tomorrow night. Best wishes to those way to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Thanks for the head's up, Jonger. I will remain extremely reserved about that and be optimistic that we can get in on it. That definitely hits "the zone". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 15z SREF 12 hour snow probabilities (1"+, 4"+, 8"+, and 12"+). I'll post the maps in three hour increments. Take it FWIW. They're a little less reliable at this range IMO, but show the possibilities. 48 hours 51 hours 54 hours 57 hours 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 18z NAM deposits the heaviest snows along about the same axis the Dec 20th storm did. However this one doesn't include the secondary deformation zone some areas to the east benefited from with that storm. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/69/blatw.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Snippet from the DVN AFD. TRANSITION TO POSSIBLE WINTER STORM TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... THE GFS...NAM...ECMWF...UKMET...GEM AND SREF NOW TO VARYING DEGREES SUGGEST THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...NW WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE BY SUNRISE. WILL KEEP A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE TREND OF RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND CONVEYOR BELT WEST OF THE LOW MOVING OVER LAKE MI. HAVE LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NW TOWARD MORNING. THE GREATER SNOW THREAT WILL BE IN THE WEDNESDAY DEFORMATION AXIS...WHERE MODELS HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST .3 TO .5 INCH QPF DEVELOPING IN A SW TO NE AXIS OVER EASTERN IA...NW IL INTO WI. WITH SUCH A LARGE FORECAST CHANGE...HAVE INITIALLY GONE OUT WITH A CONSERVATIVE SNOWFALL FORECAST IN ROUGHLY A 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE OVER THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE 20 TO 30 MPH NW WINDS...COULD LEAD TO A HEADLINE WINTER STORM EVENT WEDNESDAY THAT WOULD WIND DOWN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SNOW AND INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH READINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 LOL @ HPC. Their newly updated forecast maps show nothing, except for low probabilities of 4" over northwest lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 LOL @ HPC. Their newly updated forecast maps show nothing, except for low probabilities of 4" over northwest lower MI. I would imagine a big change on their outlook tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 18z RGEM looks similar to it's 12z version FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Lol gfs says what cold sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 18z RGEM looks similar to it's 12z version FWIW. It would be nice, but I can almost guarantee that the NW side of guidance will win out. It's funny that Groundhog Day is coming up at the end of the week/weekend, because the last two years since the blizzard have almost felt like Groundhog Day; severe events and winter storm threats narrowly missing or going by the wayside for a myriad of reasons, but frequently the same, low pressure too close, warm lake, dry air, etc. The GHD blizzard probably cursed Chicago and Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Lol gfs says what cold sector DSM getting hit nicely at 39hrs. Looks like that will streak towards La Crosse. EDIT: Yep, at 42hrs La Crosse in the main band. Looks like the GFS favors a DSM to La Crosse to Wausau line, much like Dec 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 LOL @ HPC. Their newly updated forecast maps show nothing, except for low probabilities of 4" over northwest lower MI. This will change, but a very high water content 6-12 inch strip looks possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Lol gfs says what cold sector DSM getting hit nicely at 39hrs. Looks like that will streak towards La Crosse. There's no cold sector to the low pass.... It's all the wraparound moisture that warrents keeping an eye out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 7" for La Crosse. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/803/gfs.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Just noticed the insane temp difference from Tuesday to Thursday, point has 58 for a high tomorrow, 12 on Thursday, not sure I've seen such a difference over the span of two days. Typical strong cold fronts feature 30-40F differences, not almost 50F though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 its not even laughable no more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 0z we will congratulate msp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Since 2007-08 can Madison do any wrong? Models go out of their way to bury that town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 7" for La Crosse. Hate to be stuck in between those two bands. MSP FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Since 2007-08 can Madison do any wrong? Models go out of their way to bury that town. Let's all move there and watch our towns/cities get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Since 2007-08 can Madison do any wrong? Models go out of their way to bury that town. It's the turtlehurricane effect... I think that's the year he started at UWM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Let's all move there and watch our towns/cities get buried. That's exactly what would happen. Btw...update your sig...it's depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It's the turtlehurricane effect... I think that's the year he started at UWM... Someone has to go and turn off his snow magnet! The RGEM would be a good average between the 12z & 18z runs of the GFS and NAM. It would be congrats Cyclone to Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 That's exactly what would happen. Btw...update your sig...it's depressing. Ok, I did. I was updating via the snowfall report rather than my sig, that's why my total was off. Clearly wasn't lucky anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 I can't believe I'm doing this, but due to the situation at hand, I hope this keeps trending stronger and NW. As much as I don't want severe weather in winter before a big snowstorm, the chances of severe weather being better than the chances of a big snow have shifted my hopes. I don't know why MKX is harping on severe weather so highly, when SPC doesn't even have us in a 5% chance, but if this system cuts enough, it may be possible, and they are comparing the situation to Jan. 7, 2008, where a tornado was reported in Kenosha County near Wheatland. Hopefully no tornadoes, though. Just a squall line that doesn't weaken due to a lake breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 SREF mean says congrats Hawkeye/DLL/Saints/Turtle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Ha sref mean jumped half a state in one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Well... about time i guess... I do hope i can get this ice off everything before the snow starts falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Well... about time i guess... I do hope i can get this ice off everything before the snow starts falling. Not buying into this until 0z guidance comes in..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The SREF is fickle. Should have seen the RPM, it was congrats for Des Moines to about Ashland, WI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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