cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 DVN starting to get interested. This snippet off their newly updated wx story. ...Then a low pressure and warm front will push northward spreading rain and a few thunderstorms across the area tonight. A strong cold front pushing into an unseasonably warm moist air mass will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Several inches of rainfall and hail up to the size of quarters are likely. Much colder temperatures behind the front late Tuesday night and Wednesday may produce significant snowfall and wind as a strengthening storm system pushes across the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Maybe it was the NW suburbs of MKE somebody hit 20" I want to say West Bend,WI I think that was out in Waukesha County somewhere or even Walworth County. O, there ya go above map^ 15.5" here from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 DVN starting to get interested. This snippet off their newly updated wx story. ...Then a low pressure and warm front will push northward spreading rain and a few thunderstorms across the area tonight. A strong cold front pushing into an unseasonably warm moist air mass will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Several inches of rainfall and hail up to the size of quarters are likely. Much colder temperatures behind the front late Tuesday night and Wednesday may produce significant snowfall and wind as a strengthening storm system pushes across the Midwest. Yeah, I'm thinking borderline blizzard conditions are likely for areas that experience the heaviest snowfall, right now likely from Iowa City/Cedar Rapids up into Central and Northeast Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 MKE/ORD peeps have the 12z lolGAPS on their side. So there's that. Though it's kinda blah, like 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 MKE/ORD peeps have the 12z lolGAPS on their side. So there's that. Though it's kinda blah, like 1-3". now you're just trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Yeah, I'm thinking borderline blizzard conditions are likely for areas that experience the heaviest snowfall, right now likely from Iowa City/Cedar Rapids up into Central and Northeast Wisconsin. Maybe if the amped/nuetral tilt solution win out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 now you're just trolling Hey now, every option is fair game. But yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Maybe if the amped/nuetral tilt solution win out... Winds are already supposed to 20mph here with 30mph gusts on Wednesday, and that's before our office has looked at the more amped guidance that has come in today. With a sub 980 low and a high to the NW, sustained winds at least 30mph should be possible, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Winds are already supposed to 20mph here with 30mph gusts on Wednesday, and that's before our office has looked at the more amped guidance that has come in today. With a sub 980 low and a high to the NW, sustained winds at least 30mph should be possible, right? No doubt potential is there.. Not arguing that. Just need a more amped solution to win out. More so to get more moisture in the cold sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 john dee mentions nothing about snow after the torch. sounds about right for here while turtlecane will be walking his dude magnet cat in the snowy park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 john dee mentions nothing about snow after the torch. sounds about right for here while turtlecane will be walking his dude magnet cat in the snowy park. John Dee tends to be behind on model trends. Probably because he lives up north where lake snows are his weenie potion. You thinking the classic DAB+ for here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 925 mb winds are 30-40 kts in the area where it will be snowing and forecast soundings show the potential for that to mix down. It looks like a close call as far as blizzard conditions but at least near blizzard certainly looks likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 John Dee tends to be behind on model trends. Probably because he lives up north where lake snows are his weenie potion. You thinking the classic DAB+ for here? no strong feeling either way yet with this one.. models sure love to troll us this winter. smart bet is on frozen puddles in the yard with a skiff of snow on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Good page for short range model comparison (NAM, GFS, GGEM, RGEM, UK). Of note, GFS seems faster than the other 12z guidance. 48 hours: http://meteocentre.com/models/compar_models.php?map=na〈=en&run=12&stn=PNMPR&&range=reg&hh=048'>http://meteocentre.com/models/compar_models.php?map=na〈=en&run=12&stn=PNMPR&&range=reg&hh=048 60 hours: http://meteocentre.com/models/compar_models.php?map=na〈=en&run=12&stn=PNMPR&&range=reg&hh=060'>http://meteocentre.com/models/compar_models.php?map=na〈=en&run=12&stn=PNMPR&&range=reg&hh=060 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Good page for short range model comparison (NAM, GFS, GGEM, RGEM, UK). Of note, GFS seems faster than the other 12z guidance. 48 hours: http://meteocentre.com/models/compar_models.php?map=na〈=en&run=12&stn=PNMPR&&range=reg&hh=048 60 hours: http://meteocentre.com/models/compar_models.php?map=na〈=en&run=12&stn=PNMPR&&range=reg&hh=060 Makes sense, as faster would likely mean the low is ejecting from a farther NW position. Hopefully the slower solutions pan out, without resulting in an overall weaker system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 18z NAM about to toss some weenies about for IA/WI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 18z NAM about to toss some weenies about for IA/WI? Yeah, at 27hrs 18Z NAM is looking stronger and slower than 12Z NAM. This could get interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 leftturnsignal.gif EDIT: ridiculously wet run...true beast mode. EDITx2: heavy defo snows for kansas/Iowa...looking grim for MKE, ORD is soaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Torchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Torchy trends are good for YBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Wow do the models blow outside 48 hours. They are just figuring this thing out now? Less than two days prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Wow, close to 2" of rain here by midnight tomorrow night. Probably means less snow, but the moisture would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Wow do the models blow outside 48 hours. They are just figuring this thing out now? Less than two days prior. clearly an anomalous setup...dry slot into south central IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Wow, close to 2" of rain here by midnight tomorrow night. Probably means less snow, but the moisture would be nice. Yesterday's rain is still sitting in puddles in my yard because of frozen ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Wow, close to 2" of rain here by midnight tomorrow night. Probably means less snow, but the moisture would be nice. Yup I'm about to throw the towel in on this one for us...looked good for awhile but, trends are clearly not on our side. I'm tired of this crappy Winter, bring on Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Toss it. Inside of 48 hours and models have no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 NAM has come full circle. From a hit just east of LAF yesterday, to a DSM-LSE-etc special now. That's some bad modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The LLJ with this thing is just spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The LLJ with this thing is just spectacular. Pretty impressive. It's a shame the wintry side will be relatively tame to the overall "ferocity" of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 NAM has come full circle. From a hit just east of LAF yesterday, to a DSM-LSE-etc special now. That's some bad modeling. Not so fast right turn at the end.... Has no idea what it want to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.