gosaints Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Riding the NW edge here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Under, under. It's close, though, you got to admit, especially for ORD; it wouldn't take much of a shift to get them to over. NW shift is more likely than SE it seems for sure, but I guess you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It's close, though, you got to admit, especially for ORD; it wouldn't take much of a shift to get them to over. NW shift is more likely than SE it seems for sure, but I guess you never know. I cant believe it could shift much more NW. Especially with the low swinging though tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Lol...it has been the same freakin track for several winters. It goes southeast and Detroit gets the snow....or it goes northwest and Madison and northwestern WI gts the snow. leaving Chicago, Milwaukee, and Muskegon in the hole. Dry lake effect snowpack is melting RAPIDLY. One week of lake effect snow = 1 day of melting. The CHI/MKE hole hasn't existed for several years. You're being overly dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Some on here would go under if you set it at a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Riding the NW edge here. You're in a good spot IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 I think it's officially 3.4" for Milwaukee, with that late December clipper, although 3.1" if you just count daily snowfall. Might as well go with daily snowfall, since any snow that does fall should be on the same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The CHI/MKE hole hasn't existed for several years. You're being overly dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'll have to look for MKE's numbers but this is pretty good for being in a hole: ORD: 07-08: 60.3" 08-09: 52.7" 09-10: 54.2" 10-11: 57.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Some on here would go under if you set it at a trace. This is true. But I'm trying to use some logic here, and am sorta riding the NW models. Thus, best snows and a relatively narrow area of snows overall...west of MKE/ORD. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not just throwing stuff around just to be a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 The CHI/MKE hole hasn't existed for several years. You're being overly dramatic. It sure hasn't which is why I'm hesitant to complain, although this would be the second strong low to pass to our southeast that narrowly screws Milwaukee if the GFS is correct, and it will be difficult to see Madison to Green Bay get another nice snowstorm when we're happy with our backend 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Some on here would go under if you set it at a trace. I might, good chance ORD is dry slotted before flipping and watches even the southern tail of the defo band pass just northwest. Euro is close to a shutout and the GFS is a shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I might, good chance ORD is dry slotted before flipping and watches even the southern tail of the defo band pass just northwest. Euro is close to a shutout and the GFS is a shutout. Always gotta be a little nervous being on the southern edge in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The CHI/MKE hole hasn't existed for several years. You're being overly dramatic. Hm, I'm not sure about that. I recall it happening a lot in '09-'10, last year, and this year. Locals around here have said it's been the past 5 years. The only actual Synoptic systems to dump snow here (meaning no lake effect..as you know) are the two storms in February 2011. Other than that, we've relied on lake effect and lake enhancement. Perhaps I didn't realize that about the climo. here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'll have to look for MKE's numbers but this is pretty good for being in a hole: ORD: 07-08: 60.3" 08-09: 52.7" 09-10: 54.2" 10-11: 57.9" First time in recorded history for Chicago to boot...four consecutive 50"+ seasons. MKE, bunch of clunkers. 2006-07: 58.1" 2007-08: 99.1" (second snowiest on record) 2008-09: 76.0" 2009-10: 38.3" 2010-11: 61.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Hm, I'm not sure about that. I recall it happening a lot in '09-'10, last year, and this year. Locals around here have said it's been the past 5 years. The only actual Synoptic systems to dump snow here (meaning no lake effect..as you know) are the two storms in February 2011. Other than that, we've relied on lake effect and lake enhancement. Perhaps I didn't realize that about the climo. here? MKE got a 20"+ event I believe in 08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Hm, I'm not sure about that. I recall it happening a lot in '09-'10, last year, and this year. Locals around here have said it's been the past 5 years. The only actual Synoptic systems to dump snow here (meaning no lake effect..as you know) are the two storms in February 2011. Other than that, we've relied on lake effect and lake enhancement. Perhaps I didn't realize that about the climo. here? Before last year, 09-10 was the only disappointing winter here snow wise from 06-07 to 10-11, so hard for me to complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Always gotta be a little nervous being on the southern edge in these setups. You often have to gamble with the dryslot and southern edge to see the best action but in this case, I think we're a little too far southeast. Considering the torch tomorrow, I'd be happy seeing the tail end pass through and a brief period of +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 MKE got a 20"+ event I believe in 08 No 20" events, but more 6-12+" events than I can care to count from 06-07 to 10-11 winters, especially 07-08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Before last year, 09-10 was the only disappointing winter here snow wise from 06-07 to 10-11, so hard for me to complain. Yeah, I understand. This is more me complaining because I moved here in order for great snow in the summer of 2009. So I came just in time to experience a bunch of crap winters. From my perspective it has been go southeast, or go northwest. My apologies Guys. I am just pissy because this has been a theme since I moved here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Given prolonged moisture flow out ahead, I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro isn't done playing catchup with cold sector QPF...especially if we see a decent spin-up as is looking more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Early call on the 18z NAM: it goes bonkers and cuts the low through Milwaukee, and dryslots Milwaukee and Chicago. It would be so NAMesque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 No 20" events, but more 6-12+" events than I can care to count from 06-07 to 10-11 winters, especially 07-08. Maybe it was the NW suburbs of MKE somebody hit 20" I want to say West Bend,WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Early call on the 18z NAM: it goes bonkers and cuts the low through Milwaukee, and dryslots Milwaukee and Chicago. It would be so NAMesque. yeah a trademark insane 18z NAM run would be fitting. I also think we'll see the models pick up on a more defined dryslot...they always seem too generous with QPF in the dryslot in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Yeah, I understand. This is more me complaining because I moved here in order for great snow in the summer of 2009. So I came just in time to experience a bunch of crap winters. From my perspective it has been go southeast, or go northwest. My apologies Gus. I am just pissy because this has been a theme since I moved here. And I totally understand that. It is harder in general for Muskegon to get monster synoptic storms due to the difficulty of getting lake enhancement, higher totals are normally due to lake effect, sometimes well after the synoptic portion of the event has ended. That's where things more than even out for you, with lake effect, although you've clearly been screwed with that in recent years. How was the February 9, 2010 winter storm for you? That was nice for Milwaukee and Chicago, our best storm that winter by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Maybe it was the NW suburbs of MKE somebody hit 20" I want to say West Bend,WI Yeah, I think Janesville up to maybe Slinger, somewhere in there saw isolated 20"+ totals with the February 5-6, 2008 winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Just by glancing at the Euro freebie site it looks like it keeps the system a little more positively tilted. Doesn't wrap up much at all so the cold sector precip is largely dynamically driven. Euro needs to slow down a bit and dig some before ejecting for a more wrapped up/wetter cold sector event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Yeah, I think Janesville up to maybe Slinger, somewhere in there saw isolated 20"+ totals with the February 5-6, 2008 winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 20.1" in Suckville. Palm crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 FIM cuts it over chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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