Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 12z NAM is an assault on MKE. Not sure on the exact changeover, but looks like at least 0.95" liquid equiv of something wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Big winter storm on the NAM...hard to ignore the big QPF numbers with amount of moisture, theta-e, LLJ strength and trajectories off from the Gulf. Need the wave the dig about another 100 miles south for something good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Big winter storm on the NAM...hard to ignore the big QPF numbers with amount of moisture, theta-e, LLJ strength and trajectories off from the Gulf. Need the wave the dig about another 100 miles south for something good here. As is, it would still be your best event of the year by a long shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 As is, it would still be your best event of the year by a long shot Yeah changeover here occurs just near 15z then rips for awhile with a few inches. RFD to MKE ground zero this run. I need 6" here though. Have had a 6" event every year since I've been really into following events/models (2005) gotta keep the streak alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 12z NAM would be fun. Positive of this torch it will melt off a lot of Ice from the lakes and keep that LES going Also melts lakes, ice fishing has sucked bad since 2010-2011 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Yeah changeover here occurs just near 15z then rips for awhile with a few inches. RFD to MKE ground zero this run. I need 6" here though. Have had a 6" event every year since I've been really into following events/models (2005) gotta keep the streak alive. wrfGL_700_vvel_51.gif Not that it matters but a quick extraction has 4.6" at ORD on that run...so you'd be getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Yeah changeover here occurs just near 15z then rips for awhile with a few inches. RFD to MKE ground zero this run. I need 6" here though. Have had a 6" event every year since I've been really into following events/models (2005) gotta keep the streak alive. wrfGL_700_vvel_51.gif Not that it matters but a quick extraction has 4.6" at ORD on that run...so you'd be getting close. Should help boost lake Michigan water levels... And the Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Also melts lakes, ice fishing has sucked bad since 2010-2011 winter. Lake St Clair has 9" of ice in Anchor Bay, even with it hitting 60 tomorrow, you aren't going to melt 9" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 12z NAM is an assault on MKE. Not sure on the exact changeover, but looks like at least 0.95" liquid equiv of something wintry. Yeah the NAM pumps out about 3" of precip over the next few days, around an inch of that precip is all snow. KRAC - 8.8" KMKE - 9.9" KUES - 10.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Just extracted model gibberish, but this is good stuff for MKE. 12z NAM 3 hour snowfall totals, second to last on the right. 51 01/30 15Z 31 30 356 21 0.31 0.00 539 529 -2.1 -23.3 987 100 SN 007OVC177 3.2 0.3 54 01/30 18Z 27 27 316 18 0.40 0.00 529 523 -9.0 -25.7 991 100 SN 008OVC232 4.0 0.3 57 01/30 21Z 24 22 295 20 0.27 0.00 521 518 -11.3 -28.1 996 100 -SN 004OVC230 2.7 0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 At the end of its run, but you can see the 12z RGEM sewing the seeds. Cyclone and the QC peeps, watching and waiting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Early call: 1-2" of backside snow. I'm only making this call as a general broadbrush for now, since guidance still has some major disagreement wrt location of any deformation zone. I will say 1-3" for Chicago, especially if the SE edge of guidance (0z GEM, 0z Euro) win out. Obviously if this is a strong low like the 12z NAM shows the totals will be a bit higher for many in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 At the end of its run, but you can see the 12z RGEM sewing the seeds. Cyclone and the QC peeps, watching and waiting... 1:28 12z RGEM 48 hours.png Yep looking good for the QC to MKE axis of evil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Nice hit for our western regions. Enjoy it guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Early call: 1-2" of backside snow. I'm only making this call as a general broadbrush for now, since guidance still has some major disagreement wrt location of any deformation zone. I will say 1-3" for Chicago, especially if the SE edge of guidance (0z GEM, 0z Euro) win out. Obviously if this is a strong low like the 12z NAM shows the totals will be a bit higher for many in the region. general broadbrush calls are lame, go big or go home. Final MKE call, 5.5" (higher just west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 general broadbrush calls are lame, go big or go home. Final MKE call, 5.5" (higher just west) Given that these bullish outputs are recent adjustments, it's fair for now. I'll go big or go home come tomorrow and become super weenie if things still look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 12z GFS way west. It's been waffling, but not off the table...going that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 12z GFS way west. It's been waffling, but not off the table...going that far west. for sure...the field v. euro gap is growing. 12z has to take a step west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 12z GFS way west. It's been waffling, but not off the table...going that far west. Really funny, usually it's the NAM doing this; fwiw, more of the GFS Ensembles than not have been showing a western solution with the heaviest deformation zone in C Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Don't under estimate the surge of warmth. It always seems to be warmer then forecasted. The Issue for MKE is clearly how quick the cold air gets in the area. ATP 2-4" seems like a fair call BTW: GFS is way west. Uggg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Lol 12z NAM spits out almost 7" here per Bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'll take my 5" and run. Nice LOT CWA gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 for sure...the field v. euro gap is growing. 12z has to take a step west... Would have to think it would..I'm more curious to see the GEM, with it being the most consistent and first to sniff it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 At this point, I think I'd frame my best zones for highest accumulating snows with these imaginary lines... Southeastern edge: QC to MKE to TVC Northwestern edge: DSM to LSE to GRB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 At this point, I think I'd frame my best zones for highest accumulating snows with these imaginary lines... Southeastern edge: QC to MKE to TVC Northwestern edge: DSM to LSE to GRB I agree, but think that SE edge could be knocked a bit SE if the GEM holds serve with a Chicago-Milwaukee-Lansing hit. I still think the best of the accumulating snows will be just NW like they were with the Solstice storm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 At this point, I think I'd frame my best zones for highest accumulating snows with these imaginary lines... Southeastern edge: QC to MKE to TVC Northwestern edge: DSM to LSE to GRB I'd go GBG-RPJ-MKE can't put all my eggs in the GFS range. GEM has been most consisent and getting into NAM's "better" range with Euro still southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Guys appreciate the updates. I am flying into ORD Wed morning from NYC. Looking at the latest NAm/gfs seems any changeover would occur wed afternoon/evening. Im more of a NY/NJ weather guy so I dont know the model biases for your region too well. Curious your take on with the timing of a changeover and wind potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Guys appreciate the updates. I am flying into ORD Wed morning from NYC. Looking at the latest NAm/gfs seems any changeover would occur wed afternoon/evening. Im more of a NY/NJ weather guy so I dont know the model biases for your region too well. Curious your take on with the timing of a changeover and wind potential. I think more times than not, we lean a little farther northwest versus what the models say. But that's not always an iron clad solution. Too much model spread at the moment to nail down the finer details unfortunately. And heavy rain to heavy snow events are a little taboo. Currently, NAM/GGEM is more bullish for ORD snow, GFS not so much. Euro...it's on its own right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Guys appreciate the updates. I am flying into ORD Wed morning from NYC. Looking at the latest NAm/gfs seems any changeover would occur wed afternoon/evening. Im more of a NY/NJ weather guy so I dont know the model biases for your region too well. Curious your take on with the timing of a changeover and wind potential. I'll have to look into the wind potential, but a changeover seems likely around noon or just after if it happens. However, if the GFS verifies the precip would be pretty much over by the time the changeover occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 thanks guys... Those thu night/fri lows look chilly. Ill try and read from this point on and not clog up the thread. Good luck with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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