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January 29-31 Wintry Weather


wisconsinwx

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Did the last model shift around again? It's dropping but painfully slowly. 34.0° right now.

 

GL on accumulations! Hopefully this band can wrap back on itself as the cold air bleeds south. Looks like the snow is only 15-20 miles from here.

 

Well I think the difference is the low shifted closer or right on top of the 0C line.  Previously the models had the low well SE or NE of the collapsing thicknesses.  Maybe that was the issue, the deformation band was mistakenly progged to be too far off from the low.

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Kirksville MO just went down to 1/2 mile in moderate snow, yet radar shows nothing.  Combination of them being so far away from any radar site and what apparently is snow falling out of relatively low clouds.  Sure would love to see a radar site down there someday, but with recent budget cuts by the NWS I highly doubt that will ever happen.

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Just another crappy rain to snow transition. These things never seem to go as advertised.

 

Exactly.

 

According to the RAP is should be showing across all of eastern IA! There's a lot of the band missing. Leave it to the RAP to overblow the deformation band.

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Exactly.

 

According to the RAP is should be showing across all of eastern IA! There's a lot of the band missing. Leave it to the RAP to overblow the deformation band.

 

 

Yeah this morning most of eastern MO was bone dry where many of the models yesterday had a vort spinning up precip there.  Exponential growth of computing power is apparently not helping model guidance, as if anything their ability has regressed over the last 5 years IMO.

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3.5-4" measured in several spots, snow is blowing around quite a bit so the snow is well distributed, not much drifting yet. Madison has become a ghost town, only a few people and a car occasionally, driving is treacherous at this point.

 

0.08" liquid in the last 45 mins, up to 0.29" total. With these ratios that's at least 1.5"/hour, maybe more like 2"/hour.

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Remember last night's RGEM showing N Illinois jackpotting?  It's almost worth not even speaking of the model again if it could bust so badly so close to an event.

 

Total bust! Performed horribly. So did the NAM with the cold air and deformation band position. GFS probably had the best handle on this system.

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